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December Banter 2018

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's pretty sad to know we are on the 11th page of the Panic thread in early December when the area has already had a snowstorm reach Advisory and Winter Storm Warning status for a majority of the sub-forum. Long range looks great, and I for one am LOVING the look in mid-late January when I'm in town ^_^

We’ll be tracking soon I think. We’ll get ours.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

If someone else won’t do it for you, you’ve got to set yoursef up to play the Eeyore role.

I think I might be his understudy, then...I am far less confident in this winter because of this. If we can have an entire winter (79/80) of squash during a weak El Nino, it could happen again. So...sign me up to be backup eeyore until I shovel again, lol

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet another way to fail...and seeing as this is precisely how we are likely to fail with this one...what if this is a precursor for how things are gonna go? Gosh, what do we have to do...I hope this is a two-year ENSO event. El Nino gave me more hope, but...if we can fail that way for an entire winter...even with a non-hostile AO...we may be in trouble already. Mercy...lowering expectations more.

I just want Mon-Tues to be over and done with so I don't gotta hear about blockbuster snow in the south...I am emotionally drained by the winter already and it's only Dec 5th (because it feels like we are continuing last winter...may as well call it nina because the result has been exactly the same...SOUTH)

I am getting worried about you, seriously.  You seem traumatized by the last 2 winters.  The problem is what just happened isn't that unusual for our climo.  I just want to make sure your expectations aren't out of line with reality.  We just had 2 straight years with less than 10".  Yea that sucks but that has happened 6 times in the last 30 years.  Its not that unusual.  We had one stretch with 3 straight years below 10" in the last 30 years.  (2006/7 to 2008/9).  It wasn't even close to the worse 2 year stretch, in the last 2 years DC had a total of 11.2".  In the winters of 2012 and 2013 combined DC had 5.1" and in 1997 and 1998 DC had 6.8" total.  

Over the last 30 years DC's mean is only 13.9 but worse the median (a much more accurate way to judge normal) is only 10.1".  In the last 30 years DC has only had more than 15" eight times.  More than 20" 5 times.  

DC has had less than 10" in a season 14/30 times.  So the odds of having a single digit snowfall year in DC is almost 50% any given year.  Yet every time it happens some here act like its some epic snow drought or they are Job and God is putting them through the trials or something.  

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but snow is not normal here...its not supposed to snow around here, its an anomaly.  It happens frequently enough that there is always hope and its worth tracking it to me...(even when I lived in the DC area) but the truth is most years are not going to be all that snowy and for some people that need to "win" frequently to enjoy this hobby maybe it's not for them.  I am not telling anyone what to be happy with or what they should like or not like, or to track or not track...but you do have to know climo.  Its not healthy to have expectations that arent realistic.  Expecting 20" of snow every year when the facts say that just isn't going to happen is just setting up to be frustrated all the time.  

Now in reference to this year specifically...we are already on the board.  Our snow climo is awful until after xmas.  It is WAY too early to be making judgement about this years potential based on results.  Plus nino climo is better later.  We can hit climo with just a couple storms.  And those storms typically come mid January on in a nino.  Any snow before then is just a bonus.  Try to calm down and just enjoy the ride.  I think we will have plenty of chances this year.  But not all of them will hit.  We will have more fails to come.  And overall way way way more threats fail than hit.  That is our climo.  Try to just expect that and then be happy when something goes right instead of expecting it to snow and being frustrated when it does not.  Otherwise you will drive yourself crazy.  
 

 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's pretty sad to know we are on the 11th page of the Panic thread in early December when the area has already had a snowstorm reach Advisory and Winter Storm Warning status for a majority of the sub-forum. Long range looks great, and I for one am LOVING the look in mid-late January when I'm in town ^_^

Your post is like therapy for some here, myself included, makes me feel great inside!  Thanks :-) 

Oh, I am also pumped for some biggies in the Jan to March time frame.  Bring it !!!!   

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's pretty sad to know we are on the 11th page of the Panic thread in early December when the area has already had a snowstorm reach Advisory and Winter Storm Warning status for a majority of the sub-forum. Long range looks great, and I for one am LOVING the look in mid-late January when I'm in town ^_^

see my post about expectations!

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll be tracking soon I think. We’ll get ours.

agree

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I hope I'm in town for one or two events. I'd like to meet up with some folks for a few drinks and snowy Jebwalks. I think @psuhoffman and @WxWatcher007 are game for when I'm town!

I would love to have some kind of get together this winter, its always hard to organize but even if it's a small gathering I am down.  

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's pretty sad to know we are on the 11th page of the Panic thread in early December when the area has already had a snowstorm reach Advisory and Winter Storm Warning status for a majority of the sub-forum. Long range looks great, and I for one am LOVING the look in mid-late January when I'm in town ^_^

I’m not panicking by any stretch, but I am annoyed that we’ve had this threat window for quite a while, but we’re totally whiffing because the system is getting squashed into oblivion.

And not only that, but any snow in the Christmas season is automatically more special for a lot of people. To miss that is a gut punch.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think I might be his understudy, then...I am far less confident in this winter because of this. If we can have an entire winter (79/80) of squash during a weak El Nino, it could happen again. So...sign me up to be backup eeyore until I shovel again, lol

DC still had 20.1" in 1980, it wasn't a total disaster, but suppression in several big storms prevented it from being epic.  DC was on the northern fringe of several storms that were HECS level in the southern mid atlantic that year.  It was even worse up here, my area also only had about 20" which for up here is a pretty awful disaster of a winter... It was kind of like 2010 only with NC/southern VA as the target and DC on the northern fringe...

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, mattie g said:

I’m not panicking by any stretch, but I am annoyed that we’ve had this threat window for quite a while, but we’re totally whiffing because the system is getting squashed into oblivion.

And not only that, but any snow in the Christmas season is automatically more special for a lot of people. To miss that is a gut punch.

I will say that the miss to the south is in gut punch territory, but I was just ingrained to accept any snow before Christmas is an anomaly and is unlikely for where we live. I just want seasonal temperatures for Christmas at this point. Now, if I lived in Upstate NY and had no snow on ground for Christmas, I'd be saltier than a cured ham. At least there's promise down the pike and it's a Nino unlike the last few years. Now it gives your brews a chance to age a little better come January-March :)

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's pretty sad to know we are on the 11th page of the Panic thread in early December when the area has already had a snowstorm reach Advisory and Winter Storm Warning status for a majority of the sub-forum. Long range looks great, and I for one am LOVING the look in mid-late January when I'm in town ^_^

Yep, at this pace....it gonna be a long year.    

Glad some of us just like to chat about weather....right or wrong. :P

Totally agree.  Its week 1 of met winter, and weather isnt instant gratification like a "smart" phone.

Looking forward to the next one....whenever that is (which looks to be not too far away.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, frd said:

Your post is like therapy for some here, myself included, makes me feel great inside!  Thanks :-) 

Oh, I am also pumped for some biggies in the Jan to March time frame.  Bring it !!!!   

 

Yeah...he's a keeper....even if he's with us from Texas.

Its gonna be fine, and its just weather.  Keep it in perspective and we'll all be fine.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yep, at this pace....it gonna be a long year.    

Glad some of us just like to chat about weather....right or wrong. :P

Totally agree.  Its week 1 of met winter, and weather isnt instant gratification like a "smart" phone.

Looking forward to the next one....whenever that is (which looks to be not too far away.  

As a meteorologist, I can say, the times you are wrong certainly weigh on you. Mother Nature is humbling. Just have to learn and take a loss. I still love it and that's why I love this forum and the ability to talk weather and be a weenie without someone telling me I have a problem lol

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

As a meteorologist, I can say, the times you are wrong certainly weigh on you. Mother Nature is humbling. Just have to learn and take a loss. I still love it and that's why I love this forum and the ability to talk weather and be a weenie without someone telling me I have a problem lol

I get ya and agree. While no met, I, like many are here for similar reasons and sharing our love/fascination of winter storms. Just feel it premature to be pissy and grading others forecasts and outlooks in week 1. If this doesn’t work out the next one may.  Step back....relax. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Interesting how the confluence is actually get stronger the closer we get to the storm....the opposite seems to always happen if memory serves right.  

We'll have our chances in the Mid-Atl. soon enough.

I have to wonder if this...confluence thing is gonna be a seasonal trend...I hope not :/

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