December Banter 2018

[H2O]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What specifically about the pattern and or key pattern drivers have you not liked?

 

Duh, the fact that it hasn't snowed yet, isn't snowing right now and there aren't a parade of storms all showing snow.  Patterns that don't have that blow.

 

[aldie 22]

Syphilis strikes again

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Already did that in my seasonal outlook. I'm on the other side of many of the epic and much AN snowfall outlooks at least irt to my home region. Outlook is in the philly forum from back in Oct if interested. And hey I'm not cancelling winter its not even mid december. I'm saying these locked in epic patterns dont repeatedly produce. It's the breakdown or relax when we generally score. And if we r going to wait for a breakdown then the monthlies say we are waiting to later in winter which actually fits Nino climo. There will be chances probably many BUT do we cash in?

I think you are conflating some things here. We absolutely do not need to have a breakdown in a "great" pattern to score a winter storm. Yes many of the KU events happen that way, but we can have multiple light to moderate events with a locked in cold pattern.

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What specifically about the pattern and or key pattern drivers have you not liked?

Transient neg Nao and war were my biggest factors that went into my outlook. Wasnt an overly complex outlook either. I see the positives....I see the AO tendencies. By I also see the neg NAO that isn't timing properly with the PAC. And this isn't new.....this has been a decadal function. The tendencies have also been to pop a WAR that has either led to tracks, N and W, tucked coastal surface lows, or flattened when we get a stj entity moving across. Was hoping this coming storm would set the precedent for winter but this keeps repeating itself. I respect and admire those that have knowledge of alot more teleconnection and atmospheric factors than I (SOI, GLAM(?), etc) and factor those into LR forecasting and such but sometimes dont you think as a whole too much info overload makes things more complicated than perhaps needed? I'm probably completely incorrect about anything I've said....I learn new things every single day about this hobby. I'm hoping my outlook busts this year like my optimistic approach on this coming storm looks to have. And you know me (I think). I used to be a tool though many will argue I still am lol, but I also admit defeat and if I'm wrong while also not pumping my chest if I score a win like I used to 15 years ago. Just my thoughts. Cheers.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you are conflating some things here. We absolutely do not need to have a breakdown in a "great" pattern to score a winter storm. Yes many of the KU events happen that way, but we can have multiple light to moderate events with a locked in cold pattern.

I agree. My original post was banter that, and I should have been more specific, that alot of folks equate an epic pattern with an epic storm. Doesnt usually work that way.

[Jandurin]

This is an epic storm. Just not for us.

 

On that note I'll be in Raleigh Sunday morning.

[H2O]

That massive word dump was a total hedge on snow this winter

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Already did that in my seasonal outlook. I'm on the other side of many of the epic and much AN snowfall outlooks at least irt to my home region. Outlook is in the philly forum from back in Oct if interested. And hey I'm not cancelling winter its not even mid december. I'm saying these locked in epic patterns dont repeatedly produce. It's the breakdown or relax when we generally score. And if we r going to wait for a breakdown then the monthlies say we are waiting to later in winter which actually fits Nino climo. There will be chances probably many BUT do we cash in?

Hope you’re wrong. I’ll give you credit for going out on a limb and taking a chance though. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I agree. My original post was banter that, and I should have been more specific, that alot of folks equate an epic pattern with an epic storm. Doesnt usually work that way.

I think most people realize there is an increased potential for a big storm in a favorable pattern, and odds are that we will have some classic looks this winter with the background state, and if HL blocking can lock in for a significant period. But no I don't think anyone believes a KU is a lock.

[Jandurin]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I think most people realize there is an increased potential for a big storm in a favorable pattern, and odds are that we will have some classic looks this winter with the background state, and if HL blocking can lock in for a significant period. But no I don't think anyone believes a KU is a lock.

exactly

greater potential is exactly that, greater potential

[CAPE]

Looks like Saturday will be a perfect winter day, regardless of whats to come, or not, Sunday into Monday.

Should be the final round of leaf removal. Thought I was done, I always do lol, but wind and the damn oaks that love to hold onto their brown, crispy leaves forever..

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Hope you’re wrong. I’ll give you credit for going out on a limb and taking a chance though. 

I hope Im wrong too. I love snowstorms and love tracking them as much as anyone. If u read my outlook I'm not calling for a shutout this winter just BN in my area....not the much AN alot of folks had gone with in their outlooks.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think most people realize there is an increased potential for a big storm in a favorable pattern, and odds are that we will have some classic looks this winter with the background state, and if HL blocking can lock in for a significant period. But no I don't think anyone believes a KU is a lock.

Well said. But I'm pretty sure Ji posted that he expects no less than 3 HECS for the region this year 

[H2O]

click image to make work

Sums up the storm as of right now

[mappy]

looks like that hurt

[Jandurin]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Another December wasted.

Okay, this is funny.

[frd]

Some forget how cold it has been and the sudden flip from summer to winter.  I still take this and even a normal winter. 

Even though we are going to have a dry period coming up and warmer after early next week I think when the chips are ready to fall again folks might remember this winter for the amount of snow in a short amount of time and also the possiblity of a long drawn out winter that goes deep into March. 

I am still hopeful of a good winter. I mean it is December and in a El Nino year sometimes we score here with snow while other times we do not.   

 

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

This picture SUCKS!

[PhineasC]

Snow gods giving another one to the Deep South. Next they will need to deliver a HECS to New England because, duh. Then the pattern will need to reload. Oops, now it’s January, time for the thaw. 

How’s February looking?

[GATECH]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This picture SUCKS!

Looks too familiar, like last year.  Ugh!

[CAPE]

At least NYC gets screwed.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Already did that in my seasonal outlook. I'm on the other side of many of the epic and much AN snowfall outlooks at least irt to my home region. Outlook is in the philly forum from back in Oct if interested. And hey I'm not cancelling winter its not even mid december. I'm saying these locked in epic patterns dont repeatedly produce. It's the breakdown or relax when we generally score. And if we r going to wait for a breakdown then the monthlies say we are waiting to later in winter which actually fits Nino climo. There will be chances probably many BUT do we cash in?

 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Transient neg Nao and war were my biggest factors that went into my outlook. Wasnt an overly complex outlook either. I see the positives....I see the AO tendencies. By I also see the neg NAO that isn't timing properly with the PAC. And this isn't new.....this has been a decadal function. The tendencies have also been to pop a WAR that has either led to tracks, N and W, tucked coastal surface lows, or flattened when we get a stj entity moving across. Was hoping this coming storm would set the precedent for winter but this keeps repeating itself. I respect and admire those that have knowledge of alot more teleconnection and atmospheric factors than I (SOI, GLAM(?), etc) and factor those into LR forecasting and such but sometimes dont you think as a whole too much info overload makes things more complicated than perhaps needed? I'm probably completely incorrect about anything I've said....I learn new things every single day about this hobby. I'm hoping my outlook busts this year like my optimistic approach on this coming storm looks to have. And you know me (I think). I used to be a tool though many will argue I still am lol, but I also admit defeat and if I'm wrong while also not pumping my chest if I score a win like I used to 15 years ago. Just my thoughts. Cheers.

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange.  I have been wrong plenty of times.  About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster.  The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good.  I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. 

But some of your points seem to contradict.  First those seasonal forecasts are means.  There will be relax reloads within the pattern.  Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown.  In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar.  It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter.  But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky.  

You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict.  If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem?  Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general.  I am not sure why you think it will be transient though.  It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter.  

I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early.  Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast.  If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed.  I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue.  Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there.  

If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern.  I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter.  

Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange.  I have been wrong plenty of times.  About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster.  The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good.  I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. 

But some of your points seem to contradict.  First those seasonal forecasts are means.  There will be relax reloads within the pattern.  Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown.  In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar.  It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter.  But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky.  

You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict.  If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem?  Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general.  I am not sure why you think it will be transient though.  It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter.  

I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early.  Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast.  If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed.  I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue.  Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there.  

If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern.  I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter.  

Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.  

Didnt start reading yet, I will after I grab another cup of coffee but I was ready for the counter point as i know you are on the debate team iirc. Always admire a fellow PSU person :-)

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How quick they turn on you lol 

I wouldn't call 2 1/2 years exactly "quick"...

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange.  I have been wrong plenty of times.  About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster.  The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good.  I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. 

But some of your points seem to contradict.  First those seasonal forecasts are means.  There will be relax reloads within the pattern.  Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown.  In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar.  It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter.  But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky.  

You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict.  If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem?  Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general.  I am not sure why you think it will be transient though.  It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter.  

I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early.  Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast.  If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed.  I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue.  Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there.  

If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern.  I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter.  

Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.  

And yet another way to fail...and seeing as this is precisely how we are likely to fail with this one...what if this is a precursor for how things are gonna go? Gosh, what do we have to do...I hope this is a two-year ENSO event. El Nino gave me more hope, but...if we can fail that way for an entire winter...even with a non-hostile AO...we may be in trouble already. Mercy...lowering expectations more.

I just want Mon-Tues to be over and done with so I don't gotta hear about blockbuster snow in the south...I am emotionally drained by the winter already and it's only Dec 5th (because it feels like we are continuing last winter...may as well call it nina because the result has been exactly the same...SOUTH)

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange.  I have been wrong plenty of times.  About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster.  The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good.  I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. 

But some of your points seem to contradict.  First those seasonal forecasts are means.  There will be relax reloads within the pattern.  Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown.  In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar.  It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter.  But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky.  

You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict.  If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem?  Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general.  I am not sure why you think it will be transient though.  It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter.  

I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early.  Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast.  If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed.  I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue.  Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there.  

If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern.  I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter.  

Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.  

In a nutshell, until I see actual changes in the pattern and not just what weeklies, monthlies, or otherwise show, I like sticking with current patterns. Im not necessarily a member of the "atmosphere doesn't forget" club, but there is some validity to that as you can attest to, ie, patterns.....they are patterns because the tend to repeat. But even with the Ninos we have seen since 2000, it has been hard to get a -NAO to really stick like the old climo suggests. Climatology averages change over time as you are aware. So based on the decadal pattern we have been in (which could change so I dont sound contradictory....but "when"?) I think the NAO ridging will be transient again. 

My discussion was also not about the NAO necessarily breaking down but more about how the weeklies and monthlies have this feature trying to lock-in and how epic patterns on progs such as this usually in terms of real weather require a breakdown or relax to get a big storm.

I completely agree that to have an AN snowfall year we dont NEED a HECS......heck (no pun intended) we dont even need a MECS or a SECS. Alot of us along I95 can nickel and dime our way to N or even AN. 

As far as the WAR, it was a feature most of the summer which isnt abnormal BUT I noticed this feature held on longer than usual and when I gathered ideas back in Oct to form an outlook we were still dealing with this off and on. Maybe I have a bad taste still from 14-15(?) where that feature was a common theme....forgive me if I am referencing the wrong season btw. They tend to blend together in my middle age 

And yeah, I could totally see a squashed pattern as well especially if the Atl remains flat and somewhat progressive tho other factors like a raging EPO ridge among others could overwhelm us with too much cold at times IF the LR stuff has any merit.

[smokeybandit]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Didnt start reading yet, I will after I grab another cup of coffee but I was ready for the counter point as i know you are on the debate team iirc. Always admire a fellow PSU person :-)

Yep.  Can't go wrong with PSU grads.

[aldie 22]

Wouldn't it be interesting if this was the winter of 09-10 version for the South and we are like NY/NE that year? Ji would have a fit 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Wouldn't it be interesting if this was the winter of 09-10 version for the South and we are like NY/NE that year? Ji would have a fit 

Well, they did eventually cash-in also.  Feb storms progressively moved north.  Remember the mega storm that moved in off the ocean for NYC after the storms here?  It retrograded sw enough to give us snow showers.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, they did eventually cash-in also.  Feb storms progressively moved north.  Remember the mega storm that moved in off the ocean for NYC after the storms here?

The difference is they eventually cashed-in.  We won't.