December Banter 2018

[Snowchaser]

Just now, DanTheMan said:

At this point I would be totally fine seeing any snow, i'm at peace with not getting crushed but gosh darn-it let this thing graze us for a couple inches

that's the spirt 

[aldie 22]

You get to choose

1. You get 2-4" knowing 50-100 miles south gets a foot plus

2. You get nothing and nobody else does but Tallahassee gets a foot of rain and a sleet pellet 

[Maestrobjwa]

I don't want to hear the term "northern stream" for the rest of the year...I cannot STAND it. All dang year...screwing us over, and over, and over again. Just shut it off already, lol I mean...it has done nothing good for us at all since when?

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't want to hear the term "northern stream" for the rest of the year...I cannot STAND it. All dang year...screwing us over, and over, and over again. Just shut it off already, lol I mean...it has done nothing good for us at all since when?

Last year it gave us a 1/2 inch clipper!

[NoVaWx]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You get to choose

1. You get 2-4" knowing 50-100 miles south gets a foot plus

2. You get nothing and nobody else does but Tallahassee gets a foot of rain and a sleet pellet 

2-4 is rare around here so 1.

 

If it was 1/4 inch like dec 26 storm years ago that busted then it would be much harder to choose.  Went to sleep and even woke up that morning expecting at least 4-8" but barely got a dusting.

[Snowchaser]

its over ..

[EastCoast NPZ]

I knew I went too high for the contest. Damn.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You get to choose

1. You get 2-4" knowing 50-100 miles south gets a foot plus

2. You get nothing and nobody else does but Tallahassee gets a foot of rain and a sleet pellet 

lol.  Always #1

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You get to choose

1. You get 2-4" knowing 50-100 miles south gets a foot plus

2. You get nothing and nobody else does but Tallahassee gets a foot of rain and a sleet pellet 

4" is a ****ing HECS for us.  Are you kidding me??

1

[Amped]

At least we got a 998mb triple phaser

[nj2va]

VDOT pretreating roads starting tomorrow:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2018/12/va-preps-for-potential-sunday-monday-snow/

Mattie, when will schools close?

[luckyamaha]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

VDOT pretreating roads starting tomorrow:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2018/12/va-preps-for-potential-sunday-monday-snow/

Mattie, when will schools close?

Actually just got a message from the Stafford school systems and they already are closing just based off the CMC run and some of the FV3 snow maps.

[NorthArlington101]

You get to choose
1. You get 2-4" knowing 50-100 miles south gets a foot plus
2. You get nothing and nobody else does but Tallahassee gets a foot of rain and a sleet pellet 

tougher decision for me then I want to admit. I’d choose 1, but it’s a different scenario I think.

Better scenario:

1. everyone gets nothing
2. you get nothing but NC gets 12”

I see no reason not to pick 1

[KingJWx]

Well, it's over isn't it. 

[wasnow215]

Yeah it’s over. We all know how reliable forecasting is 90 hours out.

[weatherwonder]

When has it ever been a good thing to be in the bulls eye 4 days out? 

[NorthArlington101]

This is a great image.

[caviman2201]

I feel like a lot of this pain is from the Nov snow which made us feel like it was our year. Take away Jan 16 and it's been a really long time since we had a "snowy" period.

Hopefully all the talk of epic patterns to come lets us cash in. I don't even need a HECS (though I wouldn't turn one down). I just want a couple of weeks of threats to chase that give us a couple inches each.  How long has it been since we had two or three winter events close to each other? 2014?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Anyway, the moisture train seems to be gone. This is different from April-November. 

[DanTheMan]

Well my one solace is even Richmond gets screwed on the Euro

[wasnow215]

30 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

Well my one solace is even Richmond gets screwed on the Euro

Nah you guys are in STORM MODE so you must be getting a STORM right???

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I certainly wish my area was getting snow but I couldn't care less if others are getting more...I'm glad for them but really don't care.

 

I live in south Texas but I always care about the Mid Atlantic getting cold smoke. I hope this storm trends north and Washington DC gets a foot of snow. DC is a Snowtown.

[showmethesnow]

4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Anyway, the moisture train seems to be gone. This is different from April-November. 

Would you like us to start a drought thread for you, Chuck?

[North Balti Zen]

This thing really locked in for Carolina early- really impressive for the models frankly for the most part to properly get the problematic for us northern stream piece pretty correct at range. 

The pics from my in-laws in brevard , nc (looking like 18-24 inches) and my daughter in Greensboro (looking like 10-16) should be quite something.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Would you like us to start a drought thread for you, Chuck?

It’s true - at no point in the previous six months did rain ever slip to our south and miss us...

(sarcasm)

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

What about when I started threads for 3 HECS in 09-2010.  And January 2016?  Was that a fail too?  Asking for a friend.   

How quick they turn on you lol 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I really almost wish the weeklies and monthlies were showing a 'meh' pattern and not some souped up epic looking cant fail appearance. I think alot of folks are setting themselves up for disappointment this year. You can already get a sense how this year is going to play out if you've been following the general pattern and tendencies since mid summer aside from the fluke Nov tease. 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I really almost wish the weeklies and monthlies were showing a 'meh' pattern and not some souped up epic looking cant fail appearance. I think alot of folks are setting themselves up for disappointment this year. You can already get a sense how this year is going to play out if you've been following the general pattern and tendencies since mid summer aside from the fluke Nov tease. 

What’s your assessment, Ralph? If you think we already have a sense about how the year will play out, then why don’t you tell us what that sense is so that we don’t have to guess?

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

What’s your assessment, Ralph? If you think we already have a sense about how the year will play out, then why don’t you tell us what that sense is so that we don’t have to guess?

Already did that in my seasonal outlook. I'm on the other side of many of the epic and much AN snowfall outlooks at least irt to my home region. Outlook is in the philly forum from back in Oct if interested. And hey I'm not cancelling winter its not even mid december. I'm saying these locked in epic patterns dont repeatedly produce. It's the breakdown or relax when we generally score. And if we r going to wait for a breakdown then the monthlies say we are waiting to later in winter which actually fits Nino climo. There will be chances probably many BUT do we cash in?

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I really almost wish the weeklies and monthlies were showing a 'meh' pattern and not some souped up epic looking cant fail appearance. I think alot of folks are setting themselves up for disappointment this year. You can already get a sense how this year is going to play out if you've been following the general pattern and tendencies since mid summer aside from the fluke Nov tease. 

What specifically about the pattern and or key pattern drivers have you not liked?