AlexD1990 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Many are from Accuweather forums.Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, alexderiemer said: Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk It used to be all we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Someone with a brain please save the main. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 *whispers* maybe the GFS is hot garbage and we shouldn't hang on every run of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It used to be all we had.I'm guessing you don't remember WWBB, or eastern then....Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What's wwbb? Accuweather was first I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm hugging the CMC until another model shows more snow for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 30 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's wwbb? Accuweather was first I think. Wright Weather BB. I was on eastern. I never knew AccuWeather had one until it was mentioned a few times during the Eastern days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. I’m counting on you to bring this one home. You not fretting this given your location is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m counting on you to bring this one home. You not fretting this given your location is refreshing. I just don't get the weird over confidence in day 5+ guidance being dead on perfect. No one trusts them when they show a hit at day 5/6 but when it's a close miss they have to be right? Makes no sense. It's not even that I think it's going to happen. It's like 40/60 against to me. But having a 40% chance of a big snow 5 days out are better odds then we usually have. Give us that situation several times this winter...with luck we hit on 2/3. Add in a few smaller events and we all beat climo and are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 50 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Wright Weather BB. I was on eastern. I never knew AccuWeather had one until it was mentioned a few times during the Eastern days. Was on WWBB and then Eastern too. Well... was on Eastern until.... things... happened... Was sad. More focused back then with lots of good discussions w/o so much other "stuff". Was only WWBB for a while in the late 90's using dial up until we moved overseas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What's wwbb? Accuweather was first I think.wright Weather Bulletin board. It predates almost all of them, except when TWC had a message board. I can remember being on wwbb for PDII in 2003. Ji was around back then, same as he is now.Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Everybody moved from WWBB to Eastern after WWBB went down a few times during big storms and Mike Dross (owner of WWBB) said he wasn't going to spend the time and money to continue to run a message board he never intended to get as large as it did.Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 More shattered hearts on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: More shattered hearts on the way. Applying for Reaper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 hours ago, RDM said: Was on WWBB and then Eastern too. Well... was on Eastern until.... things... happened... Was sad. More focused back then with lots of good discussions w/o so much other "stuff". Was only WWBB for a while in the late 90's using dial up until we moved overseas... Didn't realize you were an old timer as well. Started following this board through all its changes back in 96 about 2 weeks before the big one. Fun times. I miss Dr Grey and his breakdown of coming storms. His long range pattern recognition was off the charts. And this was back when the models couldn't even sniff the accuracy of today's models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Not sure what the bigger disaster is right now. The Skins season or the disco thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, H2O said: Not sure what the bigger disaster is right now. The Skins season or the disco thread? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Some believe that time is not linear. If so then you have just as many possibilities one second from now that you would have a million years from now. By the way, in your linear approach, possibilities would be infinite only if you have infinite amounts of time. He is running short of something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: It says it was initialized 12z on Dec 3... yesterday. 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Says 0z Dec 3rd on the images But it's on the page now so it's current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I left for work kinda happy about the FV3 but in the 30 minutes to get into the office, Wiggum came by to make sure that the doom and gloom returned. What STD is he, @leesburg 04? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I left for work kinda happy about the FV3 but in the 30 minutes to get into the office, Wiggum came by to make sure that the doom and gloom returned. What STD is he, @leesburg 04? Ralph Syphilis Wiggum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ralph Syphilis Wiggum paste causes that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Didn't realize you were an old timer as well. Started following this board through all its changes back in 96 about 2 weeks before the big one. Fun times. I miss Dr Grey and his breakdown of coming storms. His long range pattern recognition was off the charts. And this was back when the models couldn't even sniff the accuracy of today's models.. Yea, I'm old - feeling older all the time. haha. Followed the previous forums mainly while living overseas. With dial-up in the late 90's, it was slow at best. Didn't have DSL until I lived in Germany 02-05 (second stint there). That said, because if was so slow, posters were more reserved with comments. I still don't write much as I find it hard to contribute anything on par with those far more knowledgeable about the art, hobby, profession and curse that we all share. Read about everything that most everyone posts, other than a few that are not worth the oxygen, effort nor wasted grey matter. Really appreciate all the analysis you put into many of your posts, and the plain ole English in which you describe what's going on. Easy for this mere mortal engineer to follow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I feel like we’ve been tracking this thing for 3 weeks and we’re still 5+ days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I lived there for a while. Every winter storm threat (which was rare) ended up becoming a major fail That was because you were living there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 @BTRWx's Thanks Giving sorry this took so long but I've been busy. During happy hour yesterday there was talk about "what we were looking at" to see the fv3 was likely coming north early on in the run. This is definitely a simplified version but I highlighted on the runs below for the same time from 12z and 18z how it was evident that it was likely a better run. Look at the red and purple lines. The red line is somewhat indicative of the depth of the stj wave and the ridging it is pumping in front of it into the mississippi valley. The purple line is a rough estimate of where the northern stream is diving down and will act like a wall to block the northward progress of the ridging and the storm. If you pull up both maps and toggle them back and forth you can see how there is more ridging ahead of the stj system in the miss valley AND that the northern stream is more relaxed to its north...look near Michigan. It's nothing major but those are the kinds of minimal changes run to run that are making the difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm gone from the threads for a really long time....only to come back and see references to "sampling" and "suffering from convective feedback". The more things change, the more they stay the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, dtk said: I'm gone from the threads for a really long time....only to come back and see references to "sampling" and "suffering from convective feedback". The more things change, the more they stay the same... In a general defense, that, I think, was the first “convective feedback” nonsense, so maybe unlucky timing for your checkin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, dtk said: I'm gone from the threads for a really long time....only to come back and see references to "sampling" and "suffering from convective feedback". The more things change, the more they stay the same... It's fun ain't it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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