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December Discobs Thread 2018


George BM

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

For Northern zones ...From Sterling  ...


 Tonight

Thermal profiles are marginally
supportive of snow across northern Maryland as well, but light
precipitation rates may not support snow flakes making it to the
ground before melting. Precipitation will end quickly after
midnight (except in the upslope areas), with lows in the 30s.

If we get any decent bursts of precip we will see some wet snow. But if it's all light probably not. Boundary layer is pretty shot even up here. 

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On 12/24/2018 at 5:54 PM, das said:

Upper lever short wave and Froude convergence FTW. White Christmas, by the skin of our teeth. Would have been profoundly disappointing to move north to VT and have a brown Christmas.

Merry Christmas to my Mid-Atlantic friends!

B605974C-40B3-4BE7-954D-59CC501603DB.thumb.jpeg.32e36b27cf6f02a8b66541a5a230a0b4.jpeg

 

Beautiful.  Last minute save of a Vermont white Christmas.   Actually sounds like a good idea for a movie script....hmmm...

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Surprisingly cold last night.  21F for the low.  Frost had formed by 7PM.  Had to scrape the cars before we left the inlaws last evening.  Thick frost this AM.

Received a coating... of frost this morning in Herndon, VA. I also experienced vision blinding frost covering the car before midnight last night. 

White Christmas: Check

Low of 22F at IAD this morning.

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Through December 26, Dulles International Airport (IAD) at Sterling, VA has received 65.12" precipitation. That is the second highest yearly precipitation total on record. The record is 65.67", which was set in 2003.

Another storm will bring a moderate to possibly significant rainfall to the region Thursday into Friday evening. It is likely that enough precipitation will be recorded so that total precipitation during 2018 will surpass the 2003 record. Some implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis applied to the 12z and 18z guidance:

0.25" or more: 90%
0.50" or more: 76%
0.56" or more: 71% (amount needed to surpass the 2003 annual precipitation record)
0.75" or more: 54%
1.00" or more: 31%

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through December 26, Dulles International Airport (IAD) at Sterling, VA has received 65.12" precipitation. That is the second highest yearly precipitation total on record. The record is 65.67", which was set in 2003.

Another storm will bring a moderate to possibly significant rainfall to the region Thursday into Friday evening. It is likely that enough precipitation will be recorded so that total precipitation during 2018 will surpass the 2003 record. Some implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis applied to the 12z and 18z guidance:

0.25" or more: 90%
0.50" or more: 76%
0.56" or more: 71% (amount needed to surpass the 2003 annual precipitation record)
0.75" or more: 54%
1.00" or more: 31%

what's just as impressive is how little of that was snow, though mostly because that pattern kicked into gear in the spring/summer.

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if the gfs is right, could be a decent soaker tomorrow, most of it in a 6 hour window.  it's showing 2" totals, though somewhat of a narrow stripe, so we'll see how it pans out.

nam isn't as impressive with the totals and seems to favor the n/w burbs, but yea...more rain.

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16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through December 26, Dulles International Airport (IAD) at Sterling, VA has received 65.12" precipitation. That is the second highest yearly precipitation total on record. The record is 65.67", which was set in 2003.

Another storm will bring a moderate to possibly significant rainfall to the region Thursday into Friday evening. It is likely that enough precipitation will be recorded so that total precipitation during 2018 will surpass the 2003 record. Some implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis applied to the 12z and 18z guidance:

0.25" or more: 90%
0.50" or more: 76%
0.56" or more: 71% (amount needed to surpass the 2003 annual precipitation record)
0.75" or more: 54%
1.00" or more: 31%

Looks to be a soaking, warm-sector rains for the 12 hours leading up to Midnight on NYE as well.  Sprinting through the finish line to end the year...

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