Chris78 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Great write up as usual @showmethesnow. I enjoy reading your write ups in the morning. I agree that if we can lessen the dump into the SW there may be just enough cold air around for Christmas to deliver white rather then wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cohen is all jacked up over major SPV discombobulation. He can smell victory! Broken clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Nice little clipper on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 12z GFS is just one disaster after another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 12z GFS is just one disaster after another With the exception of warmer and rainier, it can only get better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: With the exception of warmer and rainier, it can only get better from here. we just went through our driest stretch in forever. No measureble precip at Dulles in 10 days. While we are -4 below normal to start off Dec. One of the most dissapointing starts to winter ive ever witnessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we just went through our driest stretch in forever. No measureble precip at Dulles in 10 days. While we are -4 below normal to start off Dec. One of the most dissapointing starts to winter ive ever witnessed Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Like clockwork. think of all the pixels you have created for 0 inches of snow:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 It's not a disaster because it's December, but it IS disappointing to have temps so much colder than average in the wettest year ever and have nothing to show for it, especially when there was a lot of hype in November about the early December pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Not pretty...but maybe some positives can be taken regarding the christmas-ish storm? Better ridge axis this run...50/50 in better position. A few adjustment and it would be a whole dif outcome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: think of all the pixels you have created for 0 inches of snow:) 0 inches? I've got 7 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's not a disaster because it's December, but it IS disappointing to have temps so much colder than average in the wettest year ever and have nothing to show for it, especially when there was a lot of hype in November about the early December pattern. What a difference 100 miles would have made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Not pretty...but maybe some positives can be taken regarding the christmas-ish storm? Better ridge axis this run...50/50 in better position. A few adjustment and it would be a whole dif outcome.... The run was fine for being 11+ days out and in fact not far from a hit for our region. Showing the NS diving down in the midwest and going negative tilt as it is hitting the east coast. Little deeper dig and we are in the money as it would bring significant cold with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: What a difference 100 miles would have made. No doubt bad luck played a role (that storm hits and we are talking 2009-2010 again), but that's all part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 0 inches? I've got 7 so far. how did you get 7 inches of snow in Dec? you have a snowmaker:)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: how did you get 7 inches of snow in Dec? you have a snowmaker:)? There's still 7 inches on the ground in the shade in a few places here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just 1 run but the 12z gefs looks a lot like what the EPS was showing with trough west/AN heights in the east. Not a pretty look but could easily roll forward into something nice. Building -AO through the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The -PNA/RNA isn't verifying.. it's El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just 1 run but the 12z gefs looks a lot like what the EPS was showing with trough west/AN heights in the east. Not a pretty look but could easily roll forward into something nice. Building -AO through the end of the run After a cold period around xmas I expect the trough to retrograde into the west for a little bit. The key to progressing that look into what we want heading into January is to either get the Aleutian trough to develop to press the EPO ridge east and/or the AO/NAO to tank which would suppress the entire flow and create a broader trough over the whole CONUS. Get one or the other and its pretty good. Get both (like the seasonal/weekly euro shows) and its epic. The timing of such a pattern developing is probably into January. But before that if the EPO ridge goes up there would be transient periods where cold presses enough to give us chances. But we need one of those two developments to get a sustained favorable snow pattern. ETA: even that look right there isnt actually warm if you look at the temperature anomalies...we are right around normal, slightly above 850, slightly below surface. With that kind of look over the top cold would be pressing south and we would have a colder reality then the heights might suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Just 1 run but the 12z gefs looks a lot like what the EPS was showing with trough west/AN heights in the east. Not a pretty look but could easily roll forward into something nice. Building -AO through the end of the run The SPV will get beaten into submission and the ensembles will respond. Gotta like the look up top on this panel. We could be back to a favorable pattern sooner than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 So looking at 12z Euro, pattern is getting ready to flip 180 in the EPO region and this could last for January and February. 1989 and 2005 both flipped around Christmas (opposite direction.. weak Nina) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The SPV will get beaten into submission and the ensembles will respond. Gotta like the look up top on this panel. We could be back to a favorable pattern sooner than we think. Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina? seems like 00z eps gives and 12z eps takes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina? LOL I am looking at it now. Not a Nino look for sure. I thought it might manage to take 2 baby steps forward after some improvement last night. I am just hoping the SSW stuff is real and the models will catch on in another week to 10 days. This ain't looking real pretty for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: seems like 00z eps gives and 12z eps takes away This was a pretty big shift so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. The GOA trough is a bit of a dagger for our area. That better be a totally wrong or transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina? Well, we've already had one nina-like suppression, so...lol (but I hope not...to have a nina look in a nino would just be torture! C'mon!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This was a pretty big shift so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. The GOA trough is a bit of a dagger for our area. That better be a totally wrong or transient. Chuck is right with the 180 comment lol. Even though the EPS has overall been unsteady run-to-run lately, it has been incrementally moving in this direction. Not sure what to think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, we've already had one nina-like suppression, so...lol (but I hope not...to have a nina look in a nino would just be torture! C'mon!) That wasn't a nina like suppression at all. It was classic nino miller A that couldn't push through the confluence. Think about the 09-10 storms. We got SNE'd last week. There are zero worries about suppression with what the EPS just showed. Storm track will be somewhere between Chicago and Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That wasn't a nina like suppression at all. It was classic nino miller A that couldn't push through the confluence. Think about the 09-10 storms. We got SNE'd last week. There are zero worries about suppression with what the EPS just showed. Storm track will be somewhere between Chicago and Cleveland. True...even so...I mean, have there been ninos that ended up behaving like ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This was a pretty big shift so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. The GOA trough is a bit of a dagger for our area. That better be a totally wrong or transient. So worst case....that trough could last for how long? Dagger for the short term, or like a season-long thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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