frd Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I found the WB video by JB of interest this AM, I hardly ever mention it but this morning I enjoyed his look at the forecasted convection in the Indian Ocean, or lack there ,of starting in about 15 to 20 days. Then he did a comparison to previous convection episodes in that same area in the past, and what those patterns/looks gave NA the following Jan, well, you guessed it , a very cold look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, frd said: I found the WB video by JB of interest this AM, I hardly ever mention it but this morning I enjoyed his look at the forecasted convection in the Indian Ocean, or lack there ,of starting in about 15 to 20 days. Then he did a comparison to previous convection episodes in that same area in the past, and what those patterns/looks gave NA the following Jan, well, you guessed it , a very cold look. Just cold? Or snowy? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Quick update on the start , seems the wave 1 did its job, but we need a lot more to get a significant event. However, more activity seems lined up t take place. The most important thing is how wave 2 follows up and the nature of it. A lot of people on twitter strat watch get a little too gung hoo on things. Most times forecasts have little value out in time so consistency/trends, etc. is so important. Also, HM stated things have to come together at the right time to produce certain outcomes, and certain outcomes predicted by the models at a forecast time in the future will change a significantly. However the trends so far this season have been for certain events to occur favoring SPV weakening and displacements. HM brings another good pooint the tropical forcing is a key in the strat process. I read the final outcome is still in question in regards to what happens after the wave 2. Is there a split, a displacement, etc? interesting to add this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 12z GFS is cold.. this is the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Shoot! Get that colder and suppressed a bit and NC will score again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 For @Bob Chill growing confidence as I see even the conservative Dr Amy Butler posting on this ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall. It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 This looks like @showmethesnow overrunnning Christmas eve event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 We usually have to toss December in Nino years ... it's a very positive sign imo that we even have a so-so pattern this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: This looks like @showmethesnow overrunnning Christmas eve event. Ground truth in the ens members is rain unfortunately. GEFS hints towards things improving after Christmas but it's a progressive northern stream pattern in general. We've scored in that setup in 13-15 but it doesn't normally come that easy. A lot of time to pass between now and the holiday so plenty of shifts on tap as we move closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Future pattern screams clippers that bomb away on coast. Hopefully can get them to cut underneath.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Future pattern screams clippers that bomb away on coast. Hopefully can get them to cut underneath. . GEFS screams overrunning threats starting around the 23rd-25th. We'll see if it looks similar in verification in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 35 minutes ago, kurtstack said: There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall. It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look. Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?) Just because you have a trough in the east doesn't mean a low will necessarily run up the coast. A lot of it depends on the trough axis. Now other factors can come into play but generally speaking a trough axis that is positive moving towards a neutral tilt will normally feature a progressive/OTS low as it pushes the low in front of it. While a trough moving from a neutral to a negative tilt will typically grab the low and pull it northward up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?) It depends on the “tilt”, curve or sharpness of the trough. You want to be above or left of the trough arm as it comes up the coast. Position is critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 No posts in hours smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: No posts in hours smh Outside of trolling, what is there to discuss? We pretty much shut down( like the govt apparently will be soon). See ya in 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Outside of trolling, what is there to discuss? We pretty much shut down( like the govt apparently will be soon). See ya in 2 weeks! 18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues.Nice. Except for the fact its precipitationless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues. Yeah I saw that. Good ol' Happy Hour. The advertised pattern is not a complete shut out, so there will be some op teases from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues. Nice. Except for the fact its precipitationless Hence the "tease" part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 The last few runs of the EPS have zippo for snow through Xmas outside of the far western highlands. A half inch or less. Close the shades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues. BOOM. happy hour white Christmas Suk it h8ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: BOOM. happy hour white Christmas Suk it h8ers Not bad. I am way into that Norlun at hr 162 that snows on my yard. That will totally verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: BOOM. happy hour white Christmas Suk it h8ers And a storm right behind it. Just needs more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Not bad. I am way into that Norlun at hr 162 that snows on my yard. That will totally verify. All in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues. Nice. Except for the fact its precipitationless Here's the leesburg 15 day eps meteogram. Let me know what you want to discuss when you're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: All in? Until I am out, most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the leesburg 15 day eps meteogram. Let me know what you want to discuss when you're done. Look at that increase right around Xmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the leesburg 15 day eps meteogram. Let me know what you want to discuss when you're done. Dude we all know JYO isn't a real airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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