AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, frd said: Yes, and rolled forward we know what happened in Jan. and Feb. Same progression and outcome this Jan. even though the general players are different. Weak El Nino too, I like the +NAO match that Winter. NW, US ridge is anomaly we don't have now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Weak El Nino too, I like the +NAO match that Winter. I see the NAO being negative a lot more this Jan to March than positive, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, frd said: I see the NAO being negative a lot more this Jan to March than positive, but we will see. Chuck believes a -NAO can only occur with a SSW event. And Cohen says, its happening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Probably pretty boring without some serious luck. But hopefully around or just after Xmas we are back in business. We've started off rather quickly, so a relax to a reload is fine. better now than early Jan when peak climo would be "wasted". Looks like AN but no sustained torch. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 36 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: These are the default maps right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, frd said: I see the NAO being negative a lot more this Jan to March than positive, but we will see. A -NAO is favored in a CP/EP El Nino, especially later in winter. I would expect to see some sustained NA blocking episodes going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Not exactly the best looking h5 at Day 10 on the 12z EURO OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Check this out.. -AO for years and years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, yoda said: Not exactly the best looking h5 at Day 10 on the 12z EURO OP... The entire north american pattern is going to be terrible for snow anywhere along the coastal plain next week. It's best just to write it off unless something shows up in the med/short range. Even if an op showed some sort of fantasy snow d7+ the deck is stacked steeply against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The entire north american pattern is going to be terrible for snow anywhere along the coastal plain next week. It's best just to write it off unless something shows up in the med/short range. Even if an op showed some sort of fantasy snow d7+ the deck is stacked steeply against it. I figured it would be at least 10 days till we even saw something that looked palatable on the models as a start to a change back to a potential snowy/cold pattern... but the Day 10 h5 looked horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The entire north american pattern is going to be terrible for snow anywhere along the coastal plain next week. It's best just to write it off unless something shows up in the med/short range. Even if an op showed some sort of fantasy snow d7+ the deck is stacked steeply against it. I believe nothing past seven days any more. It could just as easily be snowing or 70F 10 days from now. Xmas could be bitter cold or shorts...no one has any idea no matter what any model says. We wait and hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: A -NAO is favored in a CP/EP El Nino, especially later in winter. I would expect to see some sustained NA blocking episodes going forward. I think the potential is there, based on some of the seasonal analogs, of a potent March snowstorm this year here. As stated by others, March is the new December or possible March is the "better " December :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I believe nothing past seven days any more. It could just as easily be snowing or 70F 10 days from now. Xmas could be bitter cold or shorts...no one has any idea no matter what any model says. We wait and hope I generally don't when there is a lot of spread but there is literally no spread with what is coming. Canada is getting completely scoured out and it's definitely happening. Can't rule out some sort of lucky/convoluted event but the overall setup has been locked in for a week and isn't budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I generally don't when there is a lot of spread but there is literally no spread with what is coming. Canada is getting completely scoured out and it's definitely happening. Can't rule out some sort of lucky/convoluted event but the overall setup has been locked in for a week and isn't budging. Bob, what is you thinking about snowcover losses for NA. ? I have been a believer that snow cover has been a driver with the cold for us. However, maybe it will not be a big deal afterall. Afterall, it might rebiuld quickly. SE Canada has extensive snowcover, doubt it would go poof. Plus if you believe the Cohen stuff, the end of Oct. burst in SAI for a -AO , ( cough ) is already in process and the wheels are in motion. The SPV is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The attacks on the SPV have really been relentless. A lot is going to go down from Dec 10th to the 25th. Outcomes still uncertain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 As the PV shifts away and then hopefully shifts back. But the Judah animation is really cool if not for anything but the warmth from the region of Morocco and the Algiers gets shunted and transported to Siberia As HM mentions the warmth will not last in is post below. Check out the warm blob and its transport here : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 EPS continues to trend back to a western trough with weak ridging over the east in the LR after moving away from that idea for a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS continues to trend back to a western trough with weak ridging over the east in the LR after moving away from that idea for a couple runs. i see that alot in the long range only for it to not verify as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, what is you thinking about snowcover losses for NA. ? I have been a believer that snow cover has been a driver with the cold for us. However, maybe it will not be a big deal afterall. Afterall, it might rebiuld quickly. SE Canada has extensive snowcover, doubt it would go poof. Plus if you believe the Cohen stuff, the end of Oct. burst in SAI for a -AO , ( cough ) is already in process and the wheels are in motion. The SPV is weak. Shouldn't do too much damage. Even though we have this with the anomalies that looks like a snow eater. What the temps in fact are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS continues to trend back to a western trough with weak ridging over the east in the LR after moving away from that idea for a couple runs. Seen this a couple of times already with the EPS this year. Get a pattern change in the long range that the GFS jumps onto the EPS gets wishy washy about it. If my memory serves me we saw that back with the Scandinavian ridge retrograding into the NAO domain. It was back and forth on it until it finally starting locking in inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: What the temps in fact are... Good point, folks forget that above normal in Canada at this time of year is not warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The general pattern is blocking. It makes sense that when snowfall/cover reaches a max, it would warm to near freezing in the deeper areas. It always does this/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i see that alot in the long range only for it to not verify as we get closer Yeah it remains to be seen. Just a matter of when we get colder with the advertised EPAC look. EPS seems to suggest it may be closer to New Years. Hard to say if its just noise, but 12z EPS has a decent look in the NA at day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Seen this a couple of times already with the EPS this year. Get a pattern change in the long range that the GFS jumps onto the EPS gets wishy washy about it. If my memory serves me we saw that back with the Scandinavian ridge retrograding into the NAO domain. It was back and forth on it until it finally starting locking in inside 10 days. It has been conflicted at times. Just go back and look at the last 5-6 runs. The variability is mostly because of run to run differences in the position/orientation of the NPAC/AK trough/ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Ah, the dripping paint image below - there is research on that look (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001 ) Again keeping in mind the bias for SSW at the end of model runs, as per Sam. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0012.1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11641495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It has been conflicted at times. Just go back and look at the last 5-6 runs. The variability is mostly because of run to run differences in the position/orientation of the NPAC/AK trough/ridge. One thing I have noticed over the years is that the EPS loves to dump everything into the west. Sometimes it is right but quite often times it is wrong where we see only a portion drop in and the rest moves eastward. Think we will have a good idea where this is going.... wait for it.... in two weeks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it remains to be seen. Just a matter of when we get colder with the advertised EPAC look. EPS seems to suggest it may be closer to New Years. Hard to say if its just noise, but 12z EPS has a decent look in the NA at day 15. 12z eps at the end of the run looks a lot like a smoothed version of the 12z gfs op. uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z eps at the end of the run looks a lot like a smoothed version of the 12z gfs op. uh oh See you're still bored. Wonder how many weenies have put the suicide hotline into their speed dial after reading your posts the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z eps at the end of the run looks a lot like a smoothed version of the 12z gfs op. uh oh I'm not waiting 2 more weeks for snow Bob... I blame you for the sunny days and nice weather coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z eps at the end of the run looks a lot like a smoothed version of the 12z gfs op. uh oh I have heard some mets say the real deal waits till mid Jan to set in. Some winters set in end of Dec but many wait till early to mid Jan as you know. Until proven otherwise I don't buy mid Jan start to a better pattern, I think we start to see things improve for our areas Christmas week. I really feel the pattern is hard for the models to pin down still. I defer to seasonal Euro over the weeklies , for now. Weeklies have bounced around a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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