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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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5 hours ago, Newman said:

I figured I'd share this.

I made a list when reading Kocin and Uccellini's Northeast Snowstorms book of "Ingredients to get the Big One" and here are some (not all) similarities right now with this storm to other greats:

 

1. "West Coast ridge and downstream trough increasing in amplitude and decreasing in wavelength". Check. 

gfs_z500a_namer_37.png

2. "Vorticity Maxima passing between NC and NJ, heading northeast". Check.

gfs_z500_vort_us_37.thumb.png.50d4881170b6f190bcff869db53937ca.png

3. "Possible southern and northern stream energy mergers". Check.

gfs_z500_vort_us_33.thumb.png.0a9b2e814cf8693b8d55068d7dc99f28.png

4. "High latitude blocking over Greenland trapping a 50/50 low, resulting in confluence over SE Canada". This one is little trickier. It's not like there's a huge NAO but the confluence is there that we need.

 

5. "Large increase of wind speed in upper-level jets upwind of trough axis and along the downstream ridge crest. Entrance region of upper-level jet streaks in NE US or SE Canada". This is a big player in the overall solution. How strong and how far north can we stretch that 250mb Jet.?

gfs_uv250_us_33.png

6. "Heaviest snows occur 50-300km north of the 850 hPa path". It's close.

gfs_z850_vort_neus_36.png

As you can see. This one has the looks of a truly classic snowstorm. 

Thought I'd bring this great post over from the Philly thread...very interesting theory! Thoughts?

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thought I'd bring this great post over from the Philly thread...very interesting theory! Thoughts?

This is gold! Great post.

I love seeing the upper jet streak, promoting the fetch straight out of the gulf on that one! There’d be no shortage of qpf problems with this one, regardless of precip type. 

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the Euro is showing a little bit of what I was worried about yesterday. I still think this one has a legit chance to get squashed. But obviously we are WAY too far out to know anything. The one thing that is nice is that temps wont be an issue. The cold air will be entrenched and is never modeled well. Also the precip shield should be larger than modeled as it always is. I think we are in a pretty good spot right now.

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20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

the Euro is showing a little bit of what I was worried about yesterday. I still think this one has a legit chance to get squashed. But obviously we are WAY too far out to know anything. The one thing that is nice is that temps wont be an issue. The cold air will be entrenched and is never modeled well. Also the precip shield should be larger than modeled as it always is. I think we are in a pretty good spot right now.

Euro ens are showing less of what you're worried about compared to the last 3 runs. I'd be much more worried if we were already sitting on the southern edge of snowfall. 

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I just think it's too warm behind the storm for 8 days away. Something would have to trend/change (it probably will, the warm up). We've seen many Day 7+ warmups not materialize already this year. 

A lot of our  storms are right before a warmup.   Cold air exiting Canada is essentially what causes a 50/50 low to form.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

A lot of our  storms are right before a warmup.   Cold air exiting Canada is essentially what causes a 50/50 low to form.

Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region

-storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego

-pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south

-confluence overhead and to the north

-High pressure right over top as it turns north 

- 50/50 moving through in tandem 

-tail end of a cold snap 

-right before a flip to a warmer regime 

Am I missing anything?

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region

-storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego

-pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south

-confluence overhead and to the north

-High pressure right over top as it turns north 

- 50/50 moving through in tandem 

-tail end of a cold snap 

-right before a flip to a warmer regime 

Am I missing anything?

Will likely occur on a weekend

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region

-storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego 

-pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south

-confluence overhead and to the north 

-High pressure right over top as it turns north  

- 50/50 moving through in tandem  

-tail end of a cold snap  

-right before a flip to a warmer regime 

Am I missing anything?

blocking

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

blocking

There is some ridging over Greenland at just the right time. Kind of a bootleg -nao. And the AO has been negative and is becoming neutral. And if that's the worst of the key factors we look for it's not that bad. We have scored in worse. Of course we have failed in better too so we will see. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I can already see this op run will be more south just looking at the 528 thickness. 

Look at 500 mb and note the western ridge amplification(not flat like last run) and the low isn't digging in in the SW as much. Looks more like the 0z and 6z runs to me. Should be different(better).

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