Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: You should change your name to suppression Nah...I love music too much my OCD probably wouldn't let me anyway (would irrationally fear it would bring it to pass, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 We should move to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, too much and the trend has been for confluence to increase as leads shorten. GA should keep an eye on this one. "Bienvenidos a Miami" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: All this time I thought I needed to go north to see snow but it was south all along. Hey...at least...even if the worst possible suppression scenario happens...almost the whole northeastern coastline suffers with us...so we could all commiserate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: I live in Fairfax County where the snow is just over the border in Prince William. I've had to avoid facebook today for the most part because it's just depressing. My dad and my uncle live in Charles County and they have a couple of inches. However, I came on here to see what's up with later this week. A friend told me she had a snowflake on her phone app for Thursday. Is there anything to track for the near future??? Just a little snowflake? Anything???? Not all of Prince William. I got nothing. Zilch. I will suffer with the rest of you. Richmond is the new Westminister for today at least. They had nearly their entire climo snow in one day. And before 15 December. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I just want to beat Lubbock Texas this year...modest goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 As per Cocorah's there are some spots around Lubbock that received up to 11 inches yesterday. Winter everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: As per Cocorah's there are some spots around Lubbock that received up to 11 inches yesterday. Winter everywhere. Wish it truly was snowy everywhere! (But I guess it is nice for the folks down south that usually don't see a lot of snow...but, at the same time, we're jealous up here, lol Hope we get ours this winter!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wish it truly was snowy everywhere! (But I guess it is nice for the folks down south that usually don't see a lot of snow...but, at the same time, we're jealous up here, lol Hope we get ours this winter!) Not a chance. It's gonna be 1980 redux. Just accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not a chance. It's gonna be 1980 redux. Just accept it. What have I done lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just getting started. It's going to be low hanging fruit everywhere after today. Especially when we get 3" of rain later this week and highs pushing 60 next week. We won't have another legit threat until February. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: We won't have another legit threat until February. I can feel it. Only way I can see that happen is if late December gets suppressed too...doesn't seem like we'll have any shortage of cold air around by then, if the current models were to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: We won't have another legit threat until February. I can feel it. Iast week I extrapolated the nam to April and it said no snow. I don't know why we're wasting our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Iast week I extrapolated the nam to April and it said no snow. I don't know why we're wasting our time. You didn't show a map like Chuck does... so I don't believe you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Iast week I extrapolated the nam to April and it said no snow. I don't know why we're wasting our time. This one was a true punisher. We didn't even get the pity super cold-shot you'd expect with a suppressive high. This all might have made more sense if it was 15 degrees here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This one was a true punisher. We didn't even get the pity super cold-shot you'd expect with a suppressive high. This all might have made more sense if it was 15 degrees here today. Cold doesn't suppress. The mid and upper level flow does. During the start of PD2 it was about 10 degrees and snowing here. Of course there is some correlation between a suppressive flow and cold but it's not 1:1. But in this case the culprit for the suppression rotated into New England out of Hudson Bay. Because of that angle the true cold air associated with the northern stream is to our northeast. But that PV lobe squashed the flow in front of this system preventing intensification and latitude gain. Also the trough came through in two pieces. That lack of cohesion hurt too. Had the trough dug in one price and phased into the stj system this probably would have pumped enough ridging to get us into it. All that had nothing to do with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 My forum is still preoccupied with the snow, so I come here for actual mid-long range discussion. Hoping to continue to be able to see the end of the approaching mild period on the ensembles, and hoping to see that end move forward in time instead of staying stuck at day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cold doesn't suppress. The mid and upper level flow does. During the start of PD2 it was about 10 degrees and snowing here. Of course there is some correlation between a suppressive flow and cold but it's not 1:1. But in this case the culprit for the suppression rotated into New England out of Hudson Bay. Because of that angle the true cold air associated with the northern stream is to our northeast. But that PV lobe squashed the flow in front of this system preventing intensification and latitude gain. Also the trough came through in two pieces. That lack of cohesion hurt too. Had the trough dug in one price and phased into the stj system this probably would have pumped enough ridging to get us into it. All that had nothing to do with surface temps. Yeah, like I said it was a true screw job that required a complex set of events. It would have felt better if it was bitter cold here. Made more sense at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Euro light snow thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro light snow thur For Orlando? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: For Orlando? I could see that. A snowy El Niño winter doesn’t have to include the MA. We could miss more than we hit...north and south. It’s what makes this fun and nauseating at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 00Z GFS run has suppression city at the lead into and through Christmas. Congrats NC? All joking aside. Not much for the op runs at range and pretty much look at them for entertainment value only but I did get one take away from last nights run. And that is it looks to be a very active period with the lead in to Christmas and beyond. Energy is flying around everywhere. Also noted that the GFS also likes the idea of three jets playing footsies with each other just after Christmas. But take that for what it is worth. All in all, IF we have the cold in place and IF we have the general pattern that I discussed yesterday then the op run suggests if could be a very exciting period of time. ETA: Lol. I made a rookie mistake. I was looking at Bob's suppressed 18Z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Both op euro and gfs have a strong low near the 50/50 position day 8/9. Probably transient but Maybe something gets under us a day or 2 after ...if true. The storm some of us almost had yesterday started out as a rainstorm on the GFS if I remember correctly in the 300hr range. So anything on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The storm some of us almost had yesterday started out as a rainstorm on the GFS if I remember correctly in the 300hr range. So anything on the table at this point. Yeah it did. Remember there were many on here swearing it was way to warm for snow. But if you looked at the pattern on the ensembles in the longer range it argued for a colder setup then what the ensembles were advertising. And as that period of time advanced on the ensembles we also saw them getting more aggressive with that cold. And as you know, the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Looking at the 06Z GFS and it is giving us the old, 'Bah Humbug'. It is almost a carbon copy of the storm we just had. On Christmas Eve no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the 06Z GFS and it is giving us the old, 'Bah Humbug'. It is almost a carbon copy of the storm we just had. On Christmas Eve no less. That time period is our next threat. We can will it north up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 50 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the 06Z GFS and it is giving us the old, 'Bah Humbug'. It is almost a carbon copy of the storm we just had. On Christmas Eve no less. Might be seeing a long term tendency developing for the winter. Even the late week 'warm' rainstorm now looks like it may track south of us. We may end up being the New England of 2009-10, trying to will every event north. Lets not panic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: And Sunday am Some light frozen. We're back! Euro has a nice vort max pass Thurs and much further south than the GFS. If it were to dig a bit more there could be some snow showers for parts of the region. Temps marginal ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 44 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Might be seeing a long term tendency developing for the winter. Even the late week 'warm' rainstorm now looks like it may track south of us. We may end up being the New England of 2009-10, trying to will every event north. Lets not panic though I have not seen this brought up yet, but I have noticed it in the previous releases from October all the way to now with the seasonal models. When you look at the Euro seasonal and some other models the main above average precip anamolies are all to the South of us. I am NOT saying the look is dry but the main +1 and + 2 deviatons are over the TN Valley, extending onto NC, and SC. etc. New England itself looked very dry. May not mean a thing once we get further into the season. But, when I read your post CAPE it reminded me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Bearing Sea Rule has storm potential the week of Xmas. Way too far out to know how it will evolve but is just another signal for possible storminess. And we all love things Stormy. Daniels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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