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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You worry too much. The pattern showing up strongly favors the mid-Atlantic getting action. Sometimes it will favor southern portions, sometimes north, sometimes all. Northern missed out this time that is all. And with how active both streams have been we will get plenty of chances this year if the pattern showing up is legit.

You would think! Hard to imagine that all the rain storms we've had all end up as suppressed snowstorms...but it did happen in 1980! (But at least the winter prior to that one was pretty awesome--but in this case, we've been suffering for over two years...which is why even the prospect of not producing even in a nino is nerve-wracking)

(I think I can curtail my anxiety after awhile...but if things are suppressed again at the end of the month...I won't trust anything for the winter--because that would be twice in a row! I will feel better once I'm shoveling something that is 5 inches or more, lol My shovel has gently weeped for the last 2 1/2 years...)

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10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Lol. So how many are you going to send over the edge with your suppression trolling?

Here's the deal... my yard missed a warning level event closer than many people's morning commute. Now the pac is going to evacuate the entire continent of cold air and it's likely not coming back for nearly 2 weeks so we're in a shutout pattern for the most part. Tack on the end of the skins half decent season and the wizards got embarrassed by the crappy Cavs. All this = a very bored BobChill. The short answer to your question is all of them. And I may visit other subs if I don't find satisfaction in ours. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the deal... my yard missed a warning level event closer than many people's morning commute. Now the pac is going to evacuate the entire continent of cold air and it's likely not coming back for nearly 2 weeks so we're in a shutout pattern for the most part. Tack on the end of the skins half decent season and the wizards got embarrassed by the crappy Cavs. All this = a very bored BobChill. The short answer to your question is all of them. And I may visit other subs if I don't find satisfaction in ours. 

You are a bitter, bitter man.

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15 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I will laugh so hard if there's another southern slider like today's around Christmas.

By that point I wouldn't even be following because I woulda jumped off the threat several days prior if there were even a HINT of suppression!

Ain't gonna ruin my birthday and Christmas...heck no! (but that scenario would be a gut punch that would be hard to ignore...so let's hope that doesn't happen! We don't deserve that! Lol)

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that point I wouldn't even be following because I woulda jumped off the threat several days prior if there were even a HINT of suppression!

Ain't gonna ruin my birthday and Christmas...heck no! (but that scenario would be a gut punch that would be hard to ignore...so let's hope that doesn't happen! We don't deserve that! Lol)

In all seriousness though, I'm still very optimistic about this winter. A few near misses won't bother me too much. Even many of the good years (like 02-03 and 95-96) had quite a few impressive storms miss us to the south or fringe us.

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44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that point I wouldn't even be following because I woulda jumped off the threat several days prior if there were even a HINT of suppression!

Ain't gonna ruin my birthday and Christmas...heck no! (but that scenario would be a gut punch that would be hard to ignore...so let's hope that doesn't happen! We don't deserve that! Lol)

Hey dude...you're exhausting and I'm not even the one answering your questions...or should I say question because it's the same one a hundred different ways

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the deal... my yard missed a warning level event closer than many people's morning commute. Now the pac is going to evacuate the entire continent of cold air and it's likely not coming back for nearly 2 weeks so we're in a shutout pattern for the most part. Tack on the end of the skins half decent season and the wizards got embarrassed by the crappy Cavs. All this = a very bored BobChill. The short answer to your question is all of them. And I may visit other subs if I don't find satisfaction in ours. 

 I live in Fairfax County where the snow is just over the border in Prince William.  I've had to avoid facebook today for the most part because it's just depressing. My dad and my uncle live in Charles County and they have a couple of inches.   However, I came on here to see what's up with later this week.  A friend told me she had a snowflake on her phone app for Thursday.  Is there anything to track for the near future???  Just a little snowflake? Anything???? 

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13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Hey dude...you're exhausting and I'm not even the one answering your questions...or should I say question because it's the same one a hundred different ways

I think I've been more blowing off anxiety steam than asking a question, but...(although I am finding out more about what causes suppression) I'll try to scale back (besides, nothing to talk about for the next two weeks or so!)

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2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

 I live in Fairfax County where the snow is just over the border in Prince William.  I've had to avoid facebook today for the most part because it's just depressing. My dad and my uncle live in Charles County and they have a couple of inches.   However, I came on here to see what's up with later this week.  A friend told me she had a snowflake on her phone app for Thursday.  Is there anything to track for the near future???  Just a little snowflake? Anything???? 

Very unlikely. I suppose there's a powerball odds chance if precip rushes in and the stale rotting airmass in place is less rotten but even if a snowflake fell the surface temps will be above freezing. 

It's best to just concede that this week and next week are toast (litreally next week. Lol)

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18 minutes ago, Fozz said:

In all seriousness though, I'm still very optimistic about this winter. A few near misses won't bother me too much. Even many of the good years (like 02-03 and 95-96) had quite a few impressive storms miss us to the south.

That offers me some relief...I would love nothing more than to look back on this week and laugh as I shovel WSW-level snow a month (or less?) from now!

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think I've been more blowing off anxiety steam than asking a question, but...(although I am finding out more about what causes suppression) I'll try to scale back (besides, nothing to talk about for the next two weeks or so!)

How long have you lived in this area?

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

How long have you lived in this area?

All my life (but I'm only 27, lol) However...I've only been tracking the weather models and such since around 2014 or so (since I first discovered this board). So while I was aware how inconsistent snow can be around here...I'm only just learning why...And actually SEEING the storms miss as opposed to just following the forecast...it's even more frustrating (I guess ignorance was bliss in a way--although I was always kinda obsessed with snow and disappointed when the forecast didn't pan out)

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