WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that gefs +ao sure looked like a blip. Abrupt shift and out of line with the eps and geps. If we're heading into the advertised pattern during the last week of Dec then it's all systems go for chances. Pretty nice seeing the ens showing the pattern early. Weeklies showed the same shift but 10 days or so later. Long duration Pac onslaught worries can take a back seat now. Just like we hoped, it seems to be nothing more than a temporary reshuffle. Tomorrow's weeklies will prob have us drooling.... Although I can’t help but think about our Xmas-new years 2017 epic overrunning pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Although I can’t help but think about our Xmas-new years 2017 epic overrunning pattern... Yea, too much of a good thing. Definitely possible. Last winter's early cold period was notable at least. Thickest ice I've ever seen on the illegal skating pond. Could have driven a car across it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You have too much anxiety...relax. Sorry, I'm trying....I think I'll feel better when we hit warning criteria down here (that verfies). We simply cannot waste this nino or this pattern if it verifies...who knows when we see our next weak-mod nino (unless this one will last for two years!) Don't wanna see us suppressing all winter and then getting another nina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Off topic, but northern Greenland sure does look chilly. There normals are already cold this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, too much of a good thing. Definitely possible. Last winter's early cold period was notable at least. Thickest ice I've ever seen on the illegal skating pond. Could have driven a car across it. That's gonna really suck to have that happen two late Decembers in a row...smh (even in a nino? You would think that would diminish that possibility...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 FWIW Fv3 Post Xmas spoiler alert. No worries. I don’t believe it. Santa’s gonna deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, that looks sexy AF. glad that weird +AO is gone Good thing the 16 day GEFS is so reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Good thing the 16 day GEFS is so reliable. NJ may have a hard time based off Day 16... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Good thing the 16 day GEFS is so reliable. We are not going to have another debate about whether we should talk about long range guidance in the LONG RANGE thread. We all know any one run of any guidance at day 15 is low skill. But no one here is basing anything seriously on one run of anything. What do you think we should use to discuss long range pattern trends? Chicken bones and tarot cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: No prob. There's 2 volumes. I've only read volume 1. The greatest resource out there for understanding upper air and mid level patterns for our good storms (or any east coast storm). Worth every penny. Check ebay and see if you can get a used copy. https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640 Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are not going to have another debate about whether we should talk about long range guidance in the LONG RANGE thread. We all know any one run of any guidance at day 15 is low skill. But no one here is basing anything seriously on one run of anything. What do you think we should use to discuss long range pattern trends? Chicken bones and tarot cards? The nice thing is the current global drivers, El Nino profile, the seasonals, snow cover , the strat, sensible weather tendencies so far, etc,. all support the pattern forecasted in the long range. Few years have as much good concensus coming up as we currently have now. It makes it easier for me to accept the longer range modeling. Another cool thing is that since early November cold seems to be winning out and storms have been happening frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Over the past few days it appears the evolution at the top is going to favor our area moving forward in time. When you get to the end of this long animation you can see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. I'm worried though because it now looks like a stout -EPO so storms will miss south or it will be cold and dry. ETA: we now have agreement with the GEFS/EPS/GEPS with cold making it here before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front! Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Ninjad by Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are not going to have another debate about whether we should talk about long range guidance in the LONG RANGE thread. We all know any one run of any guidance at day 15 is low skill. But no one here is basing anything seriously on one run of anything. What do you think we should use to discuss long range pattern trends? Chicken bones and tarot cards? I watch the sloshing in Joe Bastardi's bathtub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ninjad by Bob! Yea, no distractions today because I walked away from the skins game in the second quarter. Brutal game. The southern slider on Xmas is going to be just as bad as the skins offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. I'm worried though because it now looks like a stout -EPO so storms will miss south or it will be cold and dry. ETA: we now have agreement with the GEFS/EPS/GEPS with cold making it here before Christmas. That's our Christmas Day snowstorm ejecting out of the Rockies... I can definitely envision a wave along the arctic boundary in that setup. Just enough SE ridge to get some return flow and WAA across the thermal boundary. Just need a little energy to time up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, no distractions today because I walked away from the skins game in the second quarter. Brutal game. The southern slider on Xmas is going to be just as bad as the skins offense. You're trying hard to send maestro into a panic attack aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: You're trying hard to send maestro into a panic attack aren't you? I can't find anymore bunnies... What can you do? Sure looks like a cold north america pattern is on tap. Every clue we can glean from the long range implies the pattern will have legs. We'll know in 2 weeks if it's the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just curious, how does the advertised pattern compare to the epic one that we saw in 2009-10? Colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: NJ may have a hard time based off Day 16... sorry And if they could have a hard time...Maryland could too, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. I'm worried though because it now looks like a stout -EPO so storms will miss south or it will be cold and dry. ETA: we now have agreement with the GEFS/EPS/GEPS with cold making it here before Christmas. Wait...so we DON'T want a -epo? (Or just not TOO negative?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I can't find anymore bunnies... What can you do? Sure looks like a cold north america pattern is on tap. Every clue we can glean from the long range implies the pattern will have legs. We'll know in 2 weeks if it's the real deal. Starting to wonder if seeing cold is enough to be optimistic...I'd much rather gamble with temps than too much cold and suppression--because obviously north trends aren't in the cards these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Nice moderate precip here in Stafford. About 3 inches already Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait...so we DON'T want a -epo? (Or just not TOO negative?) Yep, causes massive suppression. Florida would score with the -EPO the models are now throwing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yep, causes massive suppression. Florida would score with the -EPO the models are now throwing up. HEY! Now I'm gonna be suppression trolled...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Starting to wonder if seeing cold is enough to be optimistic...I'd much rather gamble with temps than too much cold and suppression--because obviously north trends aren't in the cards these days. You worry too much. The pattern showing up strongly favors the mid-Atlantic getting action. Sometimes it will favor southern portions, sometimes north, sometimes all. Northern missed out this time that is all. And with how active both streams have been we will get plenty of chances this year if the pattern showing up is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's gonna really suck to have that happen two late Decembers in a row...smh (even in a nino? You would think that would diminish that possibility...) Dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Clear Dc snow shield in full effect Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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