Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The Xmas to Jan 7th period will rock because I have to go to Disney World in Florida during then. I'm going to miss the best period of this winter and we'll get clocked bigly up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: The Xmas to Jan 7th period will rock because I have to go to Disney World in Florida during then. I'm going to miss the best period of this winter and we'll get clocked bigly up here. Nah. Will be like the Beattles opening for the Rolling Stones. Opening with some nice easy rock, great in its own right, but then the hammer comes down with some awesome hard rock as well as a couple of encores thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS supportive of the @Bob Chill overrunning setup around Xmas although 6z GEFS popped a +AO out of nowhere. Odds prob stacked heavily against getting a cold storm before or on Christmas but we can dream. Cleaning out pac air and flipping to a cold conus pattern takes a lot of work. I know you know this. Eps shifted away from burying the cold in the west though so that's encouraging. H5 mean d15 implies a lot of spread now with the progression east. First hint of a cave to the gefs with the 0z run last night. Ens have been killing it lately though. They nailed the current storm pattern and also did a very good job with the flip in the Pac. No reason to doubt the flip back to a -epo and hopefully +pna. As long as the cold and snow chances are back on the radar b4 Christmas I won't care if nothing happens leading into the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looking into January, I believe it’s only going to get better. I know we all know this already, but still wanted to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Scraff said: Looking into January, I believe it’s only going to get better. I know we all know this already, but still wanted to share. Chuck should be pleased with this news. A -NAO would then be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: The Xmas to Jan 7th period will rock because I have to go to Disney World in Florida during then. I'm going to miss the best period of this winter and we'll get clocked bigly up here. I'll be out of town during Christmas week, and will be back right around New Year's Eve, so I think that period should have a good chance of a storm. I'm not even being paranoid, every single time in the past 20 years that our area had a white Christmas, I've been away. Just my luck Thankfully though, the December 2009 storm happened literally the day before I left. Otherwise I would've been devastated and heartbroken to miss out on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 We just need the timing to speed up about 24 hours to get our white Xmas. For my selfish purposes ideally speed it up enough to hit the 24th or have it start early afternoon the 25th so my family has enough time to get here. After that we can all get snowed in and no one will care. But my parents and sister won't drive in snow. Silly them Kidding aside something similar keeps showing up around that time. Obviously details are irrelevant at that range. And the timing seems to place the best threat after Xmas. But you know what most years the holiday season is a hopeless no shot pattern and we're just trying to find a way to avoid 60 degrees. This year there is a legit threat of wintery weather around Xmas, even if it might be right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 12z GFS op has our post Xmas storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Dammit PSU thats the second time this week you Nina'd me by like 3 seconds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dammit PSU thats the second time this week you Nina'd me by like 3 seconds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I posted the h5 height anomalies so its a combined effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dammit PSU thats the second time this week you Nina'd me by like 3 seconds lol Stop being so bitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I posted the h5 height anomalies so its a combined effort. Your map certainly shows the larger pattern better. Holy high latitude blocking batman. There is so much good stuff going on up there it would only be a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your map certainly shows the larger pattern better. Holy high latitude blocking batman. There is so much good stuff going on up there it would only be a matter of time. Yeah its a pretty sweet look. Too bad it's a d15 op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Andrea is very conservative, but I really like the continued progression to the end of the month here. Amost wondering if we see a speeding up of the patten change to colder after the brief relax period. I think we do. Heard some mets are thinking the second week of Jan. for a better pattern to set in, but I am not in that camp. Actually, I like the odds of a major cold storm in the first 5 to 1o days of Jan, if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah its a pretty sweet look. Too bad it's a d15 op run. The general look has enough support from all guidance that I am optimistic the ops are on the right track. Timing and discreet vorts are useless at that range but the general idea has some validity. There are some basic pattern staples I'm hanging my hat on right now. The pattern continues to be stormy. Yea we're missing today but just south of us are getting a hecs for them. The pattern continues to look active in both the northern and southern branch. The other is the PV just looks to be on life support this year. It's getting beat around constantly and I am feeling more and more confident that this is showing the default state and we will have a favorable AO this winter. Give me an active pattern and a -AO and I will take my chances with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 16 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The exact same with tiny differences. What would it look like if we got rain? Exact same with tiny differences. I highly recommend reading the KU book on east coast winter storms. It would help you immensely with wrapping your head around this stuff. Do you mind sharing name of book/author? I haven't had much luck finding any books over the years that breaks down this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your map certainly shows the larger pattern better. Holy high latitude blocking batman. There is so much good stuff going on up there it would only be a matter of time. Unless there was TOO much blocking, right?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Welp, if the gfs op fantasy white Xmas blows up at least we'll be tracking a fantasy Xmas week Feb 2010 redux... This is a great looking panel man... And PSU, I totally agree with your last post... CAPE needs to dial down the bitterness. Sheeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, redskinsnut said: Do you mind sharing name of book/author? I haven't had much luck finding any books over the years that breaks down this stuff. No prob. There's 2 volumes. I've only read volume 1. The greatest resource out there for understanding upper air and mid level patterns for our good storms (or any east coast storm). Worth every penny. Check ebay and see if you can get a used copy. https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The general look has enough support from all guidance that I am optimistic the ops are on the right track. Timing and discreet vorts are useless at that range but the general idea has some validity. There are some basic pattern staples I'm hanging my hat on right now. The pattern continues to be stormy. Yea we're missing today but just south of us are getting a hecs for them. The pattern continues to look active in both the northern and southern branch. The other is the PV just looks to be on life support this year. It's getting beat around constantly and I am feeling more and more confident that this is showing the default state and we will have a favorable AO this winter. Give me an active pattern and a -AO and I will take my chances with the rest. A -AO is probably the number one feature in this region for above normal snowfall. We have the active STJ, and Nino forcing also favors a generally good NPAC look(headed in that direction now), and also persistent NA blocking at some point, usually second half of winter. Its difficult to not feel pretty confident about the prospects going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Unless there was TOO much blocking, right?... You have too much anxiety...relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Unless there was TOO much blocking, right?... Definitely possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Welp, if the gfs op fantasy white Xmas blows up at least we'll be tracking a fantasy Xmas week Feb 2010 redux... This is a great looking panel man... And PSU, I totally agree with your last post... CAPE needs to dial down the bitterness. Sheeesh. I was just about to post the gefs lol. It's a sweet look and heading into prime climo. Given some of the nino years in the analogs didn't get good until mid January I'm pleased we seem to be heading towards a good look by New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Welp, if the gfs op fantasy white Xmas blows up at least we'll be tracking a fantasy Xmas week Feb 2010 redux... This is a great looking panel man... Damn, that looks sexy AF. glad that weird +AO is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I've never seen waves break like this in an ENSO subsurface warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I've never seen waves break like this in an ENSO subsurface warming trend. Gnarly surfing dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, that looks sexy AF. glad that weird +AO is gone That one run had the pesky lower heights near Greenland. We all know the gefs is underdispersed at range. It makes each run too jumpy. I wish ncep would run a mean of several runs. Like a mean of the last 24 hours (4 runs). That might be more useful. That said if we kind of create that mean in our heads it's a pretty good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, that looks sexy AF. glad that weird +AO is gone Yea, that gefs +ao sure looked like a blip. Abrupt shift and out of line with the eps and geps. If we're heading into the advertised pattern during the last week of Dec then it's all systems go for chances. Pretty nice seeing the ens showing the pattern early. Weeklies showed the same shift but 10 days or so later. Long duration Pac onslaught worries can take a back seat now. Just like we hoped, it seems to be nothing more than a temporary reshuffle. Tomorrow's weeklies will prob have us drooling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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