December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey psu you think near and beyond this time frame we start to see an improved Pacific ?

I see we are going to go through MJO 3 to 5 so warmer,  ( 50 maybe mid month )  and then hopefully back to colder and stormier later. repeat the progression again.   

It seems we never really lose the Atlantic side, but it would be better if the Pac improved further. 

If any indication from previous years like this one,  once we lock into a better Pac hopefully that  stays for a while.

Thinking we are not fully seeing the changes taking place now, and in the next 15 days,  at the top from the SPV displacement. blocking might go a bit crazy but my fear is I hope not cold and dry. 

Seasonals say don't worry about moisture though. 

And tonight we will see if the weeklies remain robust for cold and precip like they did this past Monday for late month and Jan  

It's getting pretty close there. The whole look up top is retrograding. The trough is already west of Alaska and almost where we want it. Get the ridge up into western Canada more and its go time. 

In all honesty I see absolutely nothing to worry about.  Yea there is always bad luck. Something unforeseen could change the pattern. But right now nothing I see is bad. I know I often try to put a positive spin on things even in a crap year. Life's too short to be miserable.  But I'm not doing that here. I have never felt more bullish about a winter season going in as I do right now. 

[psuhoffman]

The weeklies might have been rushing things slightly but I think we get there. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weeklies might have been rushing things slightly but I think we get there. 

Cool, we will see a bit.

Glad for your optimism. You are right, life is to short.  My wife would concur.

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's getting pretty close there. The whole look up top is retrograding. The trough is already west of Alaska and almost where we want it. Get the ridge up into western Canada more and its go time. 

In all honesty I see absolutely nothing to worry about.  Yea there is always bad luck. Something unforeseen could change the pattern. But right now nothing I see is bad. I know I often try to put a positive spin on things even in a crap year. Life's too short to be miserable.  But I'm not doing that here. I have never felt more bullish about a winter season going in as I do right now. 

geez man--did you forget who we are and where we live?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

geez man--did you forget who we are and where we live?

Nope that's why I'm not worrying, you will worry enough for the both of us. 

[jackb979]

[psuhoffman]

Oh yay so we can get "real blocking" since the fake blocking episode we just had that's leading to an hecs south of us wasn't good enough.

I'm sure he will be along to update us on the pna shortly 

[Ji]

Oh yay so we can get "real blocking" since the fake blocking episode we just had that's leading to an hecs south of us wasn't good enough.
I'm sure he will be along to update us on the pna shortly 

What are we doing with this?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh yay so we can get "real blocking" since the fake blocking episode we just had that's leading to an hecs south of us wasn't good enough.

I'm sure he will be along to update us on the pna shortly 

A parade of 'daughter' vortices shed off of a perturbed PV rotating around  a bootleg ridge isn't quite the same as a stable, persistent NA block. But I know you know this  

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

A parade of 'daughter' vortices shed off of a perturbed PV rotating around  a bootleg ridge isn't quite the same as a stable, persistent NA block. But I know you know this  

It worked well enough for NC!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It worked well enough for NC!

It very well may, this time, with this specific setup. But then, the NAO is positive. How well did they do in 2009-10 with a legit NA block? I know our region did historically well  

[frd]

Hmm. I take the weeklies with a grain of salt at times .

So, is Eric saying warm, wet then cold, dry. 

And what about the consistency here. Maybe if someone can post them to get a better handle.  

I am growing a ltitle more interested that we might get a chance at something though prior to Christmas in the snow department .

Getting back to the precip for later in Dec and Jan., and wet versus dry, @bluewave had a most interesting post today regarding how the weather pattern was almost La Nina like vs Nino recently, and stated that the SOI has been positive and the ocean and atmosphere are not really coupled to yield the full benefit of a El Nino.  

Will be interesting to say the least to see how things play out. 

 

 

[frd]

Like I was saying about snow 

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Hmm. I take the weeklies with a grain of salt at times .

So, is Eric saying warm, wet then cold, dry. 

And what about the consistency here. Maybe if someone can post them to get a better handle.  

I am growing a ltitle more interested that we might get a chance at something though prior to Christmas in the snow department .

Getting back to the precip for later in Dec and Jan., and wet versus dry, @bluewave had a most interesting post today regarding how the weather pattern was almost La Nina like vs Nino recently, and stated that the SOI has been positive and the ocean and atmosphere are not really coupled to yield the full benefit of a El Nino.  

Will be interesting to say the least to see how things play out. 

 

 

They look fine to me. Of course all I can see on WB now is the 7 day h5 avg height anomalies. Not much different than the Monday edition. End of Dec and Jan look superb.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They look fine to me. Of course all I can see on WB now is the 7 day h5 avg height anomalies. Not much different than the Monday edition. End of Dec and Jan look superb.

I heard week 5 is like WOW  

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

I heard week 5 is like WOW  

 

[Zach’s Pop]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Hmm. I take the weeklies with a grain of salt at times .

So, is Eric saying warm, wet then cold, dry. 

And what about the consistency here. Maybe if someone can post them to get a better handle.  

I am growing a ltitle more interested that we might get a chance at something though prior to Christmas in the snow department .

Getting back to the precip for later in Dec and Jan., and wet versus dry, @bluewave had a most interesting post today regarding how the weather pattern was almost La Nina like vs Nino recently, and stated that the SOI has been positive and the ocean and atmosphere are not really coupled to yield the full benefit of a El Nino.  

Will be interesting to say the least to see how things play out. 

 

 

He doesn’t say warm and wet. He says turning stormier 2nd half of December. 

[Bob Chill]

Weeklies remain good but the roll forward to a good pattern happens during Christmas week and doesn't really get good until the end of the month/early Jan. Control took away the white Christmas though so I'm pretty pissed about that. 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It very well may, this time, with this specific setup. But then, the NAO is positive. How well did they do in 2009-10 with a legit NA block? I know our region did historically well  

I know we're just having fun, but some missed the fact there is a sneaky -nao this week. It's nothing extreme but it's legit and when combined with the displaced PV lobe trapped underneath it's actually effectively acting like an extreme block would on the longwave pattern.  

[frd]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Some real freaking nukes in the 18z Gefs for day 9.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture

I saw some crazed solutions dump snow and more snow on DC and then rain on Boston :-) 

I watch next weekend for strange outcomes.  

 

 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know we're just having fun, but some missed the fact there is a sneaky -nao this week. It's nothing extreme but it's legit and when combined with the displaced PV lobe trapped underneath it's actually effectively acting like an extreme block would on the longwave pattern.  

Yes it is effectively behaving that way. Although typically when we have a legit "extreme" block, it normally is suppressive for NE, and not so much for our region. In that case we see a semi-stationary 50-50 low 'stuck' underneath, and not a parade of vortices rotating down and then moving up through the NAO domain.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes it is effectively behaving that way. Although typically when we have a legit "extreme" block, it normally is suppressive for NE, and not so much for our region. In that case we see a semi-stationary 50-50 low 'stuck' underneath, and not a parade of vortices rotating down and then moving up through the NAO domain.

Depending on where the block and 50/50 are centered it can be suppressive for us too. That's why often it's the breakdown or relaxation of a blocking pattern that is our best window. I've seen plenty of threats squashed by bad luck regarding a NS vort with a classic nao block too. Last march was such an example although we cashed in a week later.  In this case the PV split and displacement was too much of a good thing. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

not a parade of vortices rotating down and moving up through the NAO domain.

I almost feel this is a outcome of PV displacement and recent assaults on it, but I am speculating really. It is unusual like you said for us to miss out a storm like this. 

Sure NYC miss out yes, Boston certainly, but DC , hard to understand. But as you describe it is the continuous rotation of vortices coming down and up.  

I am sure someone has the correct answer as to the ultimate cause of the displaced vortex.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes it is effectively behaving that way. Although typically when we have a legit "extreme" block, it normally is suppressive for NE, and not so much for our region. In that case we see a semi-stationary 50-50 low 'stuck' underneath, and not a parade of vortices rotating down and then moving up through the NAO domain.

I've also seen bootleg situations work plenty of times. January 16 wasn't a classic nao block. Feb 14 was a weird combo of factors that worked.  There are other ways to get the longwave pattern into the right configuration. Of course the easiest way is the classic way. And your 100% right this wasn't perfect or classic and that might have contributed to the fail but some spend too much time looking for the ideal look when many of our snows come in a less perfect setup. If we spend most of winter with a trough in the east from "bootleg non SSW induced blocks" I'll take my chances. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

I almost feel this is a outcome of PV displacement and recent assaults on it, but I am speculating really. It is unusual like you said for us to miss out a storm like this. 

Sure NYC miss out yes, Boston certainly, but DC , hard to understand. But as you describe it is the continuous rotation of vortices coming down and up.  

I am sure someone has the correct answer as to the ultimate cause of the displaced vortex.

If we had a true block, you wouldn't see these vortices hauling ass up to the N/NE in the exact location where the block should be. That tells you there is no block. Transient ridging ahead of a vortex- yes, That said, the end result in this case is extreme confluence and a strong W/NW flow. No way a ss vort can gain enough latitude in such a regime.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

2 runs in a row that get to the same destination. And I like the destination. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

2 runs in a row that get to the same destination. And I like the destination. 

Just a tad delayed maybe, but yes. Have to like where the pattern seems to be heading.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2 runs in a row that get to the same destination. And I like the destination. 

Thanks for posting them. 

I would be awesome to lock into a favorable pattern for our area and have it last a few weeks, and of course, score a few time too. It would be party time.     

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies remain good but the roll forward to a good pattern happens during Christmas week and doesn't really get good until the end of the month/early Jan. Control took away the white Christmas though so I'm pretty pissed about that. 

No surprise...they often rush things and the last run was off an ensemble run that perhaps jumped the gun a little but in its progression. It's obviously heading that way but runs since have backed off some on the speed of the retrogression. But we still are on pace, if not ahead of schedule, for getting into a classic nino look. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Depending on where the block and 50/50 are centered it can be suppressive for us too. That's why often it's the breakdown or relaxation of a blocking pattern that is our best window. I've seen plenty of threats squashed by bad luck regarding a NS vort with a classic nao block too. Last march was such an example although we cashed in a week later.  In this case the PV split and displacement was too much of a good thing. 

So this..."parade of vortices"...what in the atmosphere can stop that? (That is what screwed us over this time, right?)