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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just...I mean, I thought we would have to see more support for a possible hit before we went that far.

This sub-forum is pretty big! It takes a bit for people to adjust to Storm Mode... I think it was good timing because the amount of banter (including mine) gets crazy when a model run is good -- but ESPECIALLY if it is bad!

 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just...I mean, I thought we would have to see more support for a possible hit before we went that far.

I know my opinion matters squat in here. But the people on here who enjoy storm mode must really enjoy having the power to modify posts.

Just sayinnnnn

 

On topic:

Those embedded short waves in NS flow are being handle differently by each model suite. So I like that there is little consensus right now because it keeps all options on the table 

 

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

I know my opinion matters squat in here. But the people on here who enjoy storm mode must really enjoy having the power to modify posts.

Just sayinnnnn

 

On topic:

Those embedded short waves in NS flow are being handle differently by each model suite. So I like that there is little consensus right now because it keeps all options on the table 

 

One thing I would say about consensus is that Roanoke and Blacksburg are consistently the jackpot. I think that means something that has never waivered

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We still have 9 more runs to go before we're even at 48 hours. And at 48 hours if we're in a good spot you know everyone will be on pins and needles praying there aren't any shifts in the last 8 runs. 

Such is life in the Mid-Atlantic, where it takes 1000 things to line up perfectly to get snow.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

LOL thanks :) 

stooooorrrrrmmmmmmm moooooodddddeeeeeeeeeee

The FV3 and GFS are differing markedly at hour 132 WRT sensible weather at the surface and with the 500 mb pattern.  The GFS has a very different depiction over SE Canada compared to the FV3.   Interestingly, the 500 mb flow over the baroclinic zone off of the Carolinas seems to be trying to veer CCW (FV3) compared to the GFS yet the GFS gets accumulating snow closer to the Central MD/N VA area.  Given the doubting comments earlier, I'd appreciate knowing if there is any source of confusion about these graphics:

 

 

 

fvs.gfs.500mb.jpg

fv3.gfs.jpg

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2 minutes ago, winterymix said:

The FV3 and GFS are differing markedly at hour 132 WRT sensible weather at the surface and with the 500 mb pattern.  The GFS has a very different depiction over SE Canada compared to the FV3.   Interestingly, the 500 mb flow over the baroclinic zone off of the Carolinas seems to be trying to veer CCW (FV3) compared to the GFS yet the GFS gets accumulating snow closer to the Central MD/N VA area.  Given the doubting comments earlier, I'd appreciate knowing if there is any source of confusion about these graphics:

 

 

 

fvs.gfs.500mb.jpg

fv3.gfs.jpg

ha, i think you're good, friend. 

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23 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I know my opinion matters squat in here. But the people on here who enjoy storm mode must really enjoy having the power to modify posts.

Just sayinnnnn

 

On topic:

Those embedded short waves in NS flow are being handle differently by each model suite. So I like that there is little consensus right now because it keeps all options on the table 

 

 

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But again...ya don't this is premature?...

We wouldn't need storm mode if people could control themselves and not post every inane thought that goes through their head.

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