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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

 

This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open.

Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. 

I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman .   

 < 

The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 

>

 

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MDstorm

MDstorm

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Ji said:

Eps snow fall mean lol6d3fbc7f3394420e3414d157f4d1f35c.jpg

That snow map along with the precip map suggests some warmer solutions in the mix.  Would be quite the rollercoaster ride if we went from concerns over missing a colder storm to the south to temp issues as the primary concern. :wacko:  I guess that's how we roll in this area.

 

MDstorm

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

That snow map along with the precip map suggests some warmer solutions in the mix.  Would be quite the rollercoaster ride if we went from concerns over missing a colder storm to the south to temp issues as the primary concern. :wacko:  I guess that's how we roll in this area.

 

MDstorm

 

It seems low and mid level temps were always marginal on the guidance outside of inland and elevated areas. If this system ends up with some degree of phasing with the NS vort, then there will likely be more precip further north, but also more temp issues for eastern areas. That is what last night's EPS is suggesting. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It seems low and mid level temps were always marginal on the guidance outside of inland and elevated areas. If this system ends up with some degree of phasing with the NS vort, then there will likely be more precip further north, but also more temp issues for eastern areas. That is what last night's EPS is suggesting. 

My question is...how MUCH further north should we consider being a possiblity?...

.

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji I know the two steps up one step back thing is annoying but we are not at the range yet where steady linear progress run to run should be expected.  That kind of thing typically happens inside 72 hours when last minute changes can become clear and smack the guidance in the face so to speak...and at that point when we start to see trends they often continue run after run in a continuous way.  But at 100 plus hours still that is less common.  You have to look at things from a distance and take in a whole cycle or day of runs and see how the overall look is going.  Obviously we are trending towards more NS interaction and possibly phasing and that could be good.  Overall if we average the 24 hours of runs we have seen a slight northward adjustment in the guidance overall.  But most importantly, we are about to enter the 100 hour threshold and we are sitting there right on the edge, which is exactly where I said I wanted to be right now.  Keep us close.  Keep it right there where we can smell it...and then let it play out.

There is a bad taste in our mouths because of the last 2 years close calls on similar situations....however think of where they were 100 hours out.  This is way closer right now then both of them were.  If you actually apply the same northward adjustment to this storm as they both had in the final 100 hours we would be ok...actually it might end up a little too north for the southern half of this forum!  

I like this post and agree with it. When we are jackpot on storms like this, I have a real concern of the north shift. I also worry that the Northern Stream interaction hoses the upper levels. If it is going to do this, maybe the upper level screw job only gets so far north.. if you are jackpot now, you have a huge chance of them screwing your back yard. I do not want to Jinx anything ( @Ji thinks I am the king of jinxing) but I think we *COULD* be in a great place. Additionally, I was unimpressed by the North and Northwestward extent of the moisture on the Euro.. that seemed to scream NW VA would be in a good spot.. but I know more physics that what I am looking at are involved.

 

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open.

Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. 

I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman .   

 < 

The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here.  

>

 

Thanks for bringing that over from the New England forum, frd.  ORH's thoughts on this, given where they are and that they are still in the game should probably be at the forefront of our thinking around here...

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Boston should always be in the back of your mind. :lol:

TRUTH! Yesterday I started wondering if the system gets trapped after too far east and then slams SNE.. leaving the Dreaded donut hole like December 2011... I am haveing PTNSIMBYD - Post Traumatic No Storm IMBY Disorder when I think of that map.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

 

I value HM's calls on the short term and the long term a lot ! He is very good !! But,  I feel even for him making any calls abouts limits/edges is still just speculation at this point still. 

We are still 5 days to near the event in our region. I understand what he means , but we will see I guess. Many pieces are still not sampled and sampled correctly at that, as posted previously.  

If he is correct that DC is the ultimate Nothern point then kudos to Anthony. I am sure he is keeping a close watch on his areas, Philly to Trenton, etc.    

Disclaimer he did say " for the time being "   

    

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I haven't looked at it, but the SE crew seems not real pleased with their NAM extrapolation activities.

I mean, let's be real.  We joke, but we are all looking at it, but smarter people don't take it seriously at 84 nor extrapolate.   But I'm not mad at that look at hour 84 at the H5 level

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

I know I know....its the NAM at range but if you loop the entire run of 500mb you can see it is trying to move the entire trof which is causing the confluence and squashed concerns and closer to a 50/50 position. Verbatim and just my opinion but the NAM looks solid for those wanting the N trend. Again it's the NAM at range and just my .02$

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know I know....its the NAM at range but if you loop the entire run of 500mb you can see it is trying to move the entire trof which is causing the confluence and squashed concerns it and closer to a 50/50 position. Verbatim and just my opinion but the NAM looks solid for those wanting the N trend. Again it's the NAM at range and just my .02$

I don't disagree.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My question is...how MUCH further north should we consider being a possiblity?...

.

All the way to Boston. I'm not cracking jokes either. About a 3rd of the EPS members have a solution that runs part or all of the coast. It's easy to envision based on all the pieces embedded in the flow. 

A run up the coast isn't all roses though. Too strong or tight to the coastline and it's rain along 95 and snow further inland. That solution has limited support but the possibility is certainly within the envelope. 

Do I think a coastal runner is likely? No, not at all yet. But if something like that we're to end up the final solution it should be no shock to anyone.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I didnt want to quote that huge post. But there is no way that storm is cutting to TN with a 1040 HP right over the top of it. Unless that HP is weaker or the vort A LOT stronger it isnt gonna happen.

Tell that to the 25% or so members on the EPS that do just that (or into northern Alabama/Mississippi around the Tennessee line). Though I didn't post, my post was freaking long enough as it was, we were also seeing weaknesses in the high pressure showing up over top that low as well as higher heights in front and over-top the low. Both of which are favorable for seeing latitude gain. Those continue to trend in that direction and we will not need that strong of a low (as evidenced by the members that do cut) to see that push northward somewhat.

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