psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny thing about this storm too....its still 144 hours out lol. Eventually it has to lock in and time start moving forward. Most of the delay is due to guidance picking up on the northern stream energy phasing which slows down the progression but is a good thing. Without it I doubt we have much chance. That wall of confluence is well south of ideal initially. A phase with a closed low west of us could pump heights in front enough to tilt the axis to what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 this is rather interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 That guy has a really good weenie handbook. I’m sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: this is rather interesting.... Berk is hoping the atmosphere has a memory. Perhaps not. For instance, our region is now trending drier during a historic wet year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: this is rather interesting.... Yeah I'd put that right up there with soil temps, but definitely below mountain torque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: this is rather interesting.... That guy is a carnival clown. Not even a circus clown, carnival clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS chances of >1, 3, 6, and 12" at BWI through early next week. DCA's EPS has a 78% chance of >1" of snow and similar chances as BWI of >3, 6, or 12. According to the EPS, far northern MD has approximately a 50% chance of >1" of snow and similar chances to DCA and BWI of > 3, 6, and 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Solid improvement 2 runs of the EPS in a row? 3 if you count the 18z run? That sounds pretty good to me. I haven’t looked in detail, but looks like many of those EPS members pick up on the northern energy that phases in and pulls the low up the coast Monday? Only fly in that ointment is it probable leads to temp issues. I think you can see that reflected in the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed usWell except boxing day but that's #10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us Well except boxing day but that's #10 And parts of the area did decent in the boxing day storm. Parts of Southern Maryland on the western shore had 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Jason has had the hot hand recently. the overall trends are continuing to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 00z EPS wants to build and sustain a -AO it seems as we head further into December. If the run went out a day or two more, I’d imagine it’d show a +PNA based on the trends at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Simon Lee puts out some good stuff too, here is a view of deceleration of the polar night jet . And, its not about a SSW it is really just continued assualt to the SPV. All signs point to the end of the month when we start to feel some of the sensible impacts. Or, at the very least changing drivers of the pattern, which I hope fit the seasonal models . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So ICON , NAVGEM and most importantly EPS all moved north. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: 00z EPS wants to build and sustain a -AO it seems as we head further into December. If the run went out a day or two more, I’d imagine it’d show a +PNA based on the trends at the end. Looks very El Nino at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Seems some changes out West were in part the cause for the clusters moving a bit more North it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us THE January 96 storm or one later in that month? There were quite a few storms iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, frd said: Seems some changes out West were in part the cause for the clusters moving a bit more North it seems. If you look at the EPS members that give accumulating snow up to Mason-Dixon/LNS, they all have the west coast ridge axis sharper and drift over the ID/WY border while the low crosses into western KY. That's a classic signal in the KU books for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us Can you post the list of analog storms? Forgive me if you’ve already done so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: f you look at the EPS members that give accumulating snow up to Mason-Dixon/LNS, they all have the west coast ridge axis sharper and drift over the ID/WY border while the low crosses into western KY. That's a classic signal in the KU books for DC and Baltimore. Good observation I hope the positive trends continue. And, in this area you have to weight the Euro better when it comes to forecasting the future position and extent of the West Coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 LWX disco was excellent this morning especially when they acknowledge the uncertainty. "Keep in mind, this potential winter storm is still a few hundred miles offshore of the central California Coast and has to travel over 1500 miles to the Texas Coast from Wednesday night through Friday in order to feed off of additional moisture, and then travel to the east or northeast thereafter. A lot can change in wintry precipitation coverage and amounts." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: THE January 96 storm or one later in that month? There were quite a few storms iirc. the only jan 96 storm anyone cares about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Negnao said: Can you post the list of analog storms? Forgive me if you’ve already done so. https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1070274758049234944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: here you go! Thanks! Looks like many of the ensemble runs. Some major hits and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I remember you posting those last year. Was super cool and informative. Thanks for relaying the GEPS. No problem. I don't know how much time I'll have this season, but I'll try to post them when I take a look at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Maybe someone with WxBell Access can post but, it appears from JB's release just now that for the 4 th month in a row the updated Euro seasonal looks very, very good. I guess Joe is saying below the new Euro seasonal looks like the Pioneer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 57 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us That's funny because the other day I was posting some of the h5 maps from that Dec 2009 storm because I saw some similarities in how the models seemed to be evolving and how that storm looked from 5 days out. Obviously the time of year and nino are also similar. The blocking situation is not although I would argue that the way that little bootleg ridge over greenland and the displaced PV lobe are interacting is acting as a defacto block similar to the way the 2009 west based nao would impact the weather in a sensible way. Different roads to the same place in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 @Ji I know the two steps up one step back thing is annoying but we are not at the range yet where steady linear progress run to run should be expected. That kind of thing typically happens inside 72 hours when last minute changes can become clear and smack the guidance in the face so to speak...and at that point when we start to see trends they often continue run after run in a continuous way. But at 100 plus hours still that is less common. You have to look at things from a distance and take in a whole cycle or day of runs and see how the overall look is going. Obviously we are trending towards more NS interaction and possibly phasing and that could be good. Overall if we average the 24 hours of runs we have seen a slight northward adjustment in the guidance overall. But most importantly, we are about to enter the 100 hour threshold and we are sitting there right on the edge, which is exactly where I said I wanted to be right now. Keep us close. Keep it right there where we can smell it...and then let it play out. There is a bad taste in our mouths because of the last 2 years close calls on similar situations....however think of where they were 100 hours out. This is way closer right now then both of them were. If you actually apply the same northward adjustment to this storm as they both had in the final 100 hours we would be ok...actually it might end up a little too north for the southern half of this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, frd said: Maybe someone with WxBell Access can post but, it appears from JB's release just now that for the 4 th month in a row the updated Euro seasonal looks very, very good. I guess Joe is saying below the new Euro seasonal looks like the Pioneer model. The euro seasonal decided to follow my lead from the other day and jump all in for winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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