nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The really heavy stripe moved notably north. 1.5" into SoMD now. Another 75 miles north and well...you know My gut says we see snow from this. And I’m not ruling out a warning-level storm though I think the chances of that are low right now but obviously on the table given the small shift at this range that we’d need. And is it me or does it feel like we’ve been tracking this forever? And its still 5 days away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 UKMET precip shield shifted north. Now gets precip north of RIC vs just north of the VA/NC border at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: UKMET precip shield shifted north. Now gets precip north of RIC vs just north of the VA/NC border at 12z. That's a good 75 to 100 mile shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 re: medium/long range, I still think models are overplaying ENSO-analog climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 0z Euro @120 seems less suppressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z Euro @120 seems less suppressive? Euro 500mb at 120 looks perfect. Bowling ball over stl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Euro 500mb at 120 looks perfect. Bowling ball over stl Here she comes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Pretty big shift north... Snow knocking on the door at 126. Wasn't even to Cville at the same time 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Here she comes??? Maybe if 850s can wetbulb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like it shifted like a hundred miles north at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 132 has a 994mb right on Hatteras. Precip into DC and knocking on BWIs door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Very light precip reaching DC at 126. That’s a big shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 138 has a 990mb at the mouth of the bay w snow up to the m-d line... Nw precip seems underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 144 has a 987mb barely moving NE but the NW side just has no precip. DC is flurries... BWI light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 150 it drifts barely due east and precip is only on the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ryan M.’s weathermodels.com site is so slow. Waiting on total QPF to come out. But that’s a pretty big jump by the Euro considering where its been the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 850's are pretty questionable outside of south west Va until the very end of the event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Inudaw said: 850's are pretty questionable outside of south west Va until the very end of the event..... Not going to sweat temps at this point when we were smoking cirrus on the Euro for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 anyone got qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 0.4” crosses SE DC/Alexandria. 0.1” Baltimore. 1.0” EZF. 0.6” touches the SE tip of FFX county. Pretty much runs E to W from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Snowfall map steadily increases as you move S/SW from DC. <1” Baltimore 3” DC 4” S FFX County 7” EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 0.4” crosses SE DC/Alexandria. 0.1” Baltimore. 1.0” EZF. 0.6” touches the SE tip of FFX county. Pretty much runs E to W from there. RIC n precip type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Still some big hits on the GGEM ensemble north of DC. I count about 5/21 that give me more than 0.5" qpf as snow. About 6 shut me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, cae said: Still some big hits on the GGEM ensemble north of DC. I count about 5/21 that give me more than 0.5" qpf as snow. About 6 shut me out. I remember you posting those last year. Was super cool and informative. Thanks for relaying the GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Snowfall map steadily increases as you move S/SW from DC. <1” Baltimore 3” DC 4” S FFX County 7” EZF Keep on pushin'! Gonna be an interesting next few days (that is if models don't go right back south tomorrow, lol If I were a betting man, I'd wager at worst things stay the same in 6z and 12z suites...and perhaps better? Just my wild, mostly unscientific guess, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 How is this barely precip into bwi?? Farthest N of every op and by a fair amount. This suite was full of corrections. Better data sampling likely the cause. Fully expect more improvements on Wednesday maybe not in succession, but I've seen these corrections enough in the past to get a sense where we are headed. Fasten your seatbelts guys and gals fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Funny thing about this storm too....its still 144 hours out lol. Eventually it has to lock in and time start moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How is this barely precip into bwi?? Farthest N of every op and by a fair amount. This suite was full of corrections. Better data sampling likely the cause. Fully expect more improvements on Wednesday maybe not in succession, but I've seen these corrections enough in the past to get a sense where we are headed. Fasten your seatbelts guys and gals fun times ahead. Yeah, I too was pleased w/ the shifts noted on the 0z's and think that BWI and N still get in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS definitely took a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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