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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a big hit for south and central VA. 

.5" in N MD

3-4" in DCA

7-8" in CHO

12" in RIC

Excellent run.  If 3-4 inches of non-mixing snow falls in the first half of December it’s a huge win. And with this kinda set up we know that being on the northern edge at this lead isn’t necessarily bad. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Excellent run.  If 3-4 inches of non-mixing snow falls in the first half of December it’s a huge win. And with this kinda set up we know that being on the northern edge at this lead isn’t necessarily bad. 

Exactly, I loved it.  I’d easily take 4” of snow in early December especially considering the last two winters we’ve had.  

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

It doesn't give me any snow but I loved the run actually  

 

Agreed, it isn't easy for a storm that produces that much rain over Tennessee to slide off the coast to our south, especially when there is a high moving offshore.

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19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Some fairly significant changes at 500 mbs by day 8.

eta: compared to 00z run.

Not unlike what the 12z GFS did up north with the PV lobe(s) compared to prior runs. Heights have a more stretched out and flat look and no defined vortex digging further south into eastern Canada. Despite that, the outcome with the storm between the 2 models is dramatically different.

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the last few months remind me of 09/10.  storm after storm starting in early fall...colder and colder each time until we got within striking distance of a cold enough high.  gonna be a wild winter if this pattern holds, and the fact that we've already gotten snow in november says a lot about the type of pattern we're in.

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This to me appears like a re-retreating high.

 

 

ecmwf_T850_eus_fh144-192.gif

Just needs to be cold enough right.  But there isn’t much wiggle room I agree.  All snow is a tall order anytime of the winter so if we can score a front dump then I guess we need to thrilled. 

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