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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Was the random SW an error and isn't there on the 12z FV3? Curious. It could be suspect but i'm hearing talks about a "wrinkle" in the equation and a northern piece that started showing up on the models very recently?

A wrinkle?  

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

A wrinkle?  

I think I'm responsible for using that term...lol When I said wrinkle, I was referring to the possible capture and phase solution that the EURO and 18z GFS seemed to try to do (but on those particular runs, it happened too late) That was something that wasn't there before.

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34 minutes ago, high risk said:

          The mageval.ncep.noaa.gov is the site for parallel versions of models.     If you click on GFS, you get the parallel GFS, which is the FV3GFS.    If you don't believe me, check out the 12z 'GFS' on mageval and compare it to the TT FV3GFS plots.

    

 

Appreciate the response. I didn’t realize I needed to open the parallel version. Learn something new everyday.

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FV3 out on TTT, FWIW.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_22.png

I'm assuming the thing over Iowa is the new piece of the puzzle that's kicking the storm out?

Just don’t click the Prev Run arrow.  Don’t do it.  It will show you what this could be and what currently is.  

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3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? 

No, you are thinking Boxing Day 2010.  January 25 2000 was kinda like the situation we have now, was supposed to stay south, but decided to head north.  Forecast went from partly cloudy to winter storm warnings and 12 inches of snow in about 6 hours.  Ultimate weenie Hail Mary.  

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? 

No. The storm went negative tilt in SC and was forecast to go out to sea. The 500mb low phased and caught it and had it ride up the coast. Forecasts went from sunny to winter storm warnings slowly northward from SC to MD. 10 to 20 inches fell.. All a surprise because models kept missing the phase and capture 

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

I keep reminding myself that energy isn’t even on the west coast yet.  Anything can happen. 

Right. Although the models seem to be focusing on central VA/NW NC, the energy won't arrive on the west coast until late thursday/early friday. Once that happens with observations can get fed into the model and there will (hopefully) be much more agreement/consistency 

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1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

around 11 tonight DT will be giving an update on this storm

This is one of those times where I am not confused about this situation.  The storm is a tennis ball and the confluence is a brick wall.  The storm needs to be a bowling ball and the brick wall needs to be a cardboard wall.  

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This is one of those times where I am not confused about this situation.  The storm is a tennis ball and the confluence is a brick wall.  The storm needs to be a bowling ball and the brick wall needs to be a cardboard wall.  

Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point.

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