Yeoman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, ravensrule said: He is fine. Unfortunately he is no longer posting here. He posts on phillywx now. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Old GFS has also been consistent the last couple of days except for yesterday's 18z blip. Considerably more jumpy than the Fv3. A 10-run trend gif on TT comparing the FV3 vs the GFS's consistency speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Mitch convo can go into banter please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like FV3 is finally finished it's 12z run...lol (maybe we get 18z all at once? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Considerably more jumpy than the Fv3. A 10-run trend gif on TT comparing the FV3 vs the GFS's consistency speaks for itself. I guess it depends on what we each consider to be jumpy. Plus I could be wrong. I haven't done a check but it just seems that the GFS has been south of us the majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Looks like FV3 is finally finished it's 12z run...lol (maybe we get 18z all at once? ) I mean it has so much more time to think than the other models, you would think it’s more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It's not a matter of "which model is right". Often at this range they are all wrong. And they could all be wrong in the same way. Often they are as they are all victim of the same error. The error might not be due to their physics but something unforeseen by all of them. Chaos. Data void. A cow farted in the wrong direction. Who knows. For example In 2016 from 100 hours out the gfs and ggem were the furthest north with that storm. But it ended up further north then either of them even had it by a bit. The nam actually nailed that one but not until 24 hours out. It didn't matter to D.C. because that storm had a huge coverage of 1-3' snow so it took D.C. From the northern part to the southern edge of the max band. But ask places in southern VA or NYC if it mattered. Dec 2009 and 1996 the euro was furthers north but even it wasn't nearly far enough north from 100 hours. Then what if this comes north but because of a phase. Then the Fv3 was right with snowfall distribution but for the wrong reason. None started showing that as a serious possibility until recently. The key isn't as much predicting which model is right. It's predicting in what way they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Old GFS has also been consistent the last couple of days except for yesterday's 18z blip. You haven't been following the 500s then. They have been all over the place and that is where your really need to be looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Why? It’s been said numerous times that Mitch asked for his account to be deleted, Randy said no, so Mitch left. However, he still reads I think as I have been told that he has messaged people here about stuff that’s been posted. I’m sure he appreciates that everyone misses him. But he chose to stop posting. So I think it’s best we just let it go and let him do whatever it is he needs or wants to do. Agree with waterboy that this should be in banter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: You haven't been following the 500s then. They have been all over the place and that is where your really need to be looking. That is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back. 0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: 18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back. 0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge. That’s more than a bit of a step back. 12z had 12-20” throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: 18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back. 0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge. Glad I can check out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 You have to wonder if the other models are leading the way now trying to get to solution number two and the GFS brothers are playing catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Glad I can check out now. The hits just keep coming tonight. Bad day but you gotta keep rolling on in this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, high risk said: 18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back. 0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge. you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? Was just gonna ask him the same thing! @high risk double-check the date on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? go ahead and check for yourself. It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4. It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer. There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 What a sucky set of models! If we are gonna see changes, it better start tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, high risk said: go ahead and check for yourself. It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4. It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer. There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data. My brain cells must be warped today bc I’ve been on there and I don’t see anything labeled the FV3. Only NAM, GFS, GEFS and the normal models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I went here and it only has till 12zhttps://fim.noaa.gov/FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, midatlanticweather said: What a sucky set of models! If we are gonna see changes, it better start tonight! FV3 is trending south, not a good sign, but time is still on our side and trying to pinpoint where all these features come together at day 5/6 is not certain at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 All of the OP runs are definitely deflating but I was pleasantly surprised at how many close hits there were on the eps. I just got a chance to run through the individual members and there is definitely some big hits in there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 He might be looking at 18z gfs. Dont see it on that link either. Maybe it just didnt run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: My brain cells must be warped today bc I’ve been on there and I don’t see anything labeled the FV3. Only NAM, GFS, GEFS and the normal models. The mageval.ncep.noaa.gov is the site for parallel versions of models. If you click on GFS, you get the parallel GFS, which is the FV3GFS. If you don't believe me, check out the 12z 'GFS' on mageval and compare it to the TT FV3GFS plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 You know it's not good when everyone is arguing over the frikin FV3 run because it was the only one showing a decent solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Asssuming @high risk is right (which he almost certainly is) here is the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I figure we have another 84 hours until we need to start talking about January 25 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Asssuming [mention=10922]high risk[/mention] is right (which he almost certainly is) here is the FV3. Looks like it needs more tweaking. We just built the ggem. What caused the southern solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Asssuming @high risk is right (which he almost certainly is) here is the FV3. I compared to 12z. Yes more than step back...more like falling backwards down an escalator at Dulles airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.