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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Considerably more jumpy than the Fv3. A 10-run trend gif on TT comparing the FV3 vs the GFS's consistency speaks for itself.

I guess it depends on what we each consider to be jumpy. Plus I could be wrong. I haven't done a check but it just seems that the GFS has been south of us the majority of the time. 

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It's not a matter of "which model is right". Often at this range they are all wrong. And they could all be wrong in the same way.  Often they are as they are all victim of the same error. The error might not be due to their physics but something unforeseen by all of them. Chaos. Data void. A cow farted in the wrong direction. Who knows. 

  For example  In 2016 from 100 hours out the gfs and ggem were the furthest north with that storm. But it ended up further north then either of them even had it by a bit. The nam actually nailed that one but not until 24 hours out.  It didn't matter to D.C. because that storm had a huge coverage of 1-3' snow so it took D.C. From the northern part to the southern edge of the max band. But ask places in southern VA or NYC if it mattered. 

Dec 2009 and 1996 the euro was furthers north but even it wasn't nearly far enough north from 100 hours. 

Then what if this comes north but because of a phase. Then the Fv3 was right with snowfall distribution but for the wrong reason.  None started showing that as a serious possibility until recently.  

The key isn't as much predicting which model is right. It's predicting in what way they are wrong. 

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Why?

 

It’s been said numerous times that Mitch asked for his account to be deleted, Randy said no, so Mitch left.

 

However, he still reads I think as I have been told that he has messaged people here about stuff that’s been posted. I’m sure he appreciates that everyone misses him. But he chose to stop posting.

 

So I think it’s best we just let it go and let him do whatever it is he needs or wants to do.

 

Agree with waterboy that this should be in banter.

 

 

.

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? 

 

    go ahead and check for yourself.     It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4.      It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer.   There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data.

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Just now, high risk said:

 

    go ahead and check for yourself.     It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4.      It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer.   There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data.

My brain cells must be warped today bc I’ve been on there and I don’t see anything labeled the FV3. Only NAM, GFS, GEFS and the normal models. 

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Just now, midatlanticweather said:

What a sucky set of models! If we are gonna see changes, it better start tonight!

 

FV3 is trending south, not a good sign, but time is still on our side and trying to pinpoint where all these features come together at day 5/6 is not certain at any time. 

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

My brain cells must be warped today bc I’ve been on there and I don’t see anything labeled the FV3. Only NAM, GFS, GEFS and the normal models. 

          The mageval.ncep.noaa.gov is the site for parallel versions of models.     If you click on GFS, you get the parallel GFS, which is the FV3GFS.    If you don't believe me, check out the 12z 'GFS' on mageval and compare it to the TT FV3GFS plots.

    

 

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