Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I've been driving my wife crazy over this storm lol. Now if the new GFS model joins the others and goes south I'll be giving up hope on this one. Nope, not yet! The phasing scenario adds a new wrinkle..giving a slight miss south new life things go well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: No need to run the Fully Vexed 3; we already know it's out to lunch. Considering its been pretty consistent the past 10 runs or so... we don't know if it's out to lunch yet IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm starting to get sold on the idea now too... It's not often when a fairly strong southern shortwave phases with the ns and closes off but goes quietly out to sea south of the mason dixon. It happens but usually when there's a nasty neg nao in the mix. This storm is getting kicked by a wobbling 50/50 spinning off vorts. Change some timing around and nyc and bos are getting snow. OK - Have to say it- January 25, 2000 --- ok WEENIE WISHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 When do we see GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 25 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: It's ok. Sometimes we accidentally look at the previous day's 18z run and not the latest. 18z yesterday gave us good snow. He must have other access This was 18z yesterday. He probably saw this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This was 18z yesterday. He probably saw this. And he's probably north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 QPF mean on the 18z GEFS is a setback. Less precip for the DC-Balt-Philly crew. Pivotalweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Is this the main site for the model? https://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_products.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yeah, 18z GEFS isn’t pretty based on the mean QPF and snowfall. ~0.3” QPF and 1.5” snowfall on the mean. Compared to 0.8” and 6” at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: QPF mean on the 18z GEFS is a setback. Less precip for the DC-Balt-Philly crew. Pivotalweather That’s a fairly large region north to south. Didn’t even think Philly was in the game...Manchester MD is barely in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, caviman2201 said: We just need Mitch to make an appearance... miss that guy +1,000,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I want to give this a couple runs to see how the guidance does with this idea of a northern stream phase and capture. It's still very close. But looking over the h5 even with the capture that NS has to relax some. It's cutting through PA. We need it up in upstate NY to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Gefs now tightly clustered with the op. First time the spread has been this tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yeah I think the FV3 broke... it stopped after hour 144 on the 12z run. Maybe NCEP is embarrassed by it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Tony Pann storm?...lol Stop it. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs now tightly clustered with the op. First time the spread has been this tight. This has turned into sad hour. Of course, it’s still Tuesday. We have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's all fun and games until it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Yeah I think the FV3 broke... it stopped after hour 144 on the 12z run Only on TT... its further out on Weathernerds and College of DuPage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Only on TT... its further out on Weathernerds and College of DuPage smh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, 18z GEFS isn’t pretty based on the mean QPF and snowfall. ~0.3” QPF and 1.5” snowfall on the mean. Compared to 0.8” and 6” at 12z. Off run. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Off run. Toss it. indeed. the only one I trust now is FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 18z FV3 might be out by 18z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, ravensrule said: +1,000,000 Is he ok? Haven’t seen him in like a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, T. August said: Is he ok? Haven’t seen him in like a year. He is fine. Unfortunately he is no longer posting here. He posts on phillywx now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Sorry folks, my bad. It was the 18z run from yesterday. I see that it's still stuck on 144. Don't know why they can't just get it to run in a timely manner. Anyway, feel free to beat me with a stick until we get some more positive news on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 56 minutes ago, yoda said: Considering its been pretty consistent the past 10 runs or so... we don't know if it's out to lunch yet IMO Consistent doesn't mean correct. It's on it's own. We know how that turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Consistent doesn't mean correct. It's on it's own. We know how that turns out. that's because the FV2 is the new King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 here comes the GEM. on hour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Consistent doesn't mean correct. It's on it's own. We know how that turns out. It’s either gonna instantly become the go to model or a huge embarrassment... Never good when your “upgrade” underperforms it’s predecessor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Old GFS has also been consistent the last couple of days except for yesterday's 18z blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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