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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The upper Midwest shortwave is already sucked into the bowling ball. But now there's another (fantasy) ns shortwave kicking things along. This could end up running the coast...

 

It’s certainly becoming more and more believable.  If we can’t get the confluence to relax, this scenario seems to be our next best shot.  Ensembles have been slowly catching on.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Almost....again

Dosent Boston go through this everytime before they get in on the 2 -3 feet?

I'm starting to get sold on the idea now too... It's not often when a fairly strong southern shortwave phases with the ns and closes off but goes quietly out to sea south of the mason dixon. It happens but usually when there's a nasty neg nao in the mix. This storm is getting kicked by a wobbling 50/50 spinning off vorts. Change some timing around and nyc and bos are getting snow. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, Quasievil said:

Ha, ha! No way! I think we have to ignore the GFS until it starts showing what we want. :P

I won't start playing softball with small animals until we have to write this one off. Imho I believe the odds of an ok event are easily 50/50 even with the euro and gfs consistently showing a miss south. It's really easy to envision how this event can change into something more classic for the MA and NE.  They never come easy so the current roller coaster is completely normal too. Pretty much every storm is like this.  This particular one is higher stakes because it's very high odds of a prolific event for somebody. Hopefully everybody as long as my yard gets the most. 

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jewell2188

jewell2188

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

My above post remains true, if the FV3 comes south, it wouldn't shock me, as we could be seeing a transition in evolution of the storm from option 1 with the confluence to the latest GFS/Euro looks at h5. 

Dude, get out of your feelings. It’s not true.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

I'm sort of at a loss. I have seen quite a few runs now that I have felt there has been some room for the low to gain more latitude as it has crossed the south. And yet we have seen very little if any response. Maybe the low is just too weak to take advantage? If we see this general setup at game time that little extra latitude gain as it exits the coast could mean the difference between a possible stall off of OBX vs. around the mouth of the bay as the low waits for the 500's to catch up.

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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I'm sort of at a loss. I have seen quite a few runs now that I have felt there has been some room for the low to gain more latitude as it has crossed the south. And yet we have seen very little if any response. Maybe the low is just too weak to take advantage? If we see this general setup at game time that little extra latitude gain as it exits the coast could mean the difference between a possible stall off of OBX vs. around the mouth of the bay as the low waits for the 500's to catch up.

Right where we want it @d6.

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