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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hold on....

Something interesting is happening...might be good here

Option 2. Honest I don't like complicated but if this is going to work that's probably the only way. Fv3 is all alone with having a more relaxed NS over New England. Everything else seems to be going the wrong way. The whole tilt is becoming more positive. But...it's trending the right way on the other end with more energy digging in and it could try to turn it up if the flow relaxes.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I'll say this it trended away from option 1 but towards option 2 a little. 

Yea, option 2 getting some legs. Gfs isn't there but it's closer. Euro was close too. Considering the trailing shortwave is way out in time we could end up with a phased coastal all along the coast.... it's not that far fetched at all....

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

It saved face at 126. The low is rapidly taking off east of MYR

Still a very solid thump of snow. The trailing ULL keeps it snowing over us for a decent period of time. It's not the 2ft totals we were seeing however, but it's a good hit. 

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I actually think that was one of the better GFS (non FV3) runs we’ve had (except for the blip 18z yesterday).  Yes, trying to time a phase is tricky but all signs point to confluence over NE being too strong to overcome with the initial Vort.  We need the feature diving in from the plains to phase and bring it up the coast.  GFS was close.  Onto the GEFS!

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