KingJWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 From Eric Fisher: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Nice. And apparently still a large cluster of solutions north of the mean? 10 run the coast and affect SNE. Most of our big hits are that scenario. Another 10 or so look like the FV3. The rest are whiffs and some fringe jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way. The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. A 30" bomb in early Dec would be historic on many counts. But, I'm trying to understand options 1 and 2 option 1 brings the precip in from Ky and develops a secondary low off the coast, right? And Option 2 is a phase of the N and S jet streams which would bring a bigger amount of snow up the coast, right? Don't we do very well with a phase? I'm trying to understand why that is a problematic solution. Do we chance the D.C. Snow hole in that situation? Thank you all for insights. While the roller coaster ride is fun, I wish it could be a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Monster HECS in there skewing the mean. that one might be a BECS...tough qualify for that one...I would think 3 feet or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 10 run the coast and affect SNE. Most of our big hits are that scenario. Another 10 or so look like the FV3. The rest are whiffs and some fringe jobs. I’ll take that. Not sure about EPS in particular, but it seems like the northern edge is a brutal cutoff on most guidance. Distance between nada and WSW criteria could be less than 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: that one might be a BECS...tough qualify for that one...I would think 3 feet or more. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lol. Let's get it done randy. Its hard being anonymous with your writing style anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Large contingent of members are NE of the mean track in a great spot for the DC/Balt region. Snowfall means are still not greatly reflecting this though probably because of the interaction between the 500's and the surface low. All I know is give me that inside track any day of the week and hope the 500's cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I am glad the FV3 made it to hour 144... could you imagine what would happened if it died at hour 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Maybe we can pull a Jan 2010 north trend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am glad the FV3 made it to hour 144... could you imagine what would happened if it died at hour 114 It was still snowing over us at 144 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol. Let's get it done randy. Its hard being anonymous with your writing style anyway! What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice. And apparently still a large cluster of solutions north of the mean? Just posted them in the digital thread if you would like to look over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: A 30" bomb in early Dec would be historic on many counts. But, I'm trying to understand options 1 and 2 option 1 brings the precip in from Ky and develops a secondary low off the coast, right? And Option 2 is a phase of the N and S jet streams which would bring a bigger amount of snow up the coast, right? Don't we do very well with a phase? I'm trying to understand why that is a problematic solution. Do we chance the D.C. Snow hole in that situation? Thank you all for insights. While the roller coaster ride is fun, I wish it could be a little easier. A phase is great if the timing and location is right. Otherwise, it can be a swing and a miss. A lot of our misses and Boston hits are late-phasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: It was still snowing over us at 144 too I am irrationally angry it won't get out to 150 so I can see the additional inch we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What?Ten man Johnson is ready to go back to weather53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 There was some discussion earlier about the performance of the ICON, so I thought I'd fill in the gap between the EPS and NAM extrapolation with some data from last year. The best site I've been able to find with ICON verification stats is this one. It comes with the following disclaimer: "These scores are provided by the WMO LC-DNV for testing and demonstration purposes only. They should only be used to give feedback to the WMO LC-DNV on the layout and functionality of these web pages." so the numbers might not be reliable, but it matches up well with other sources I've seen. Below are some scores from last winter for the 12z runs of models commonly mentioned here, except the NAVGEM (no scores available). "NCEP" is the GFS, "MetOffice" is the UKMET, and "DWD" is the ICON. All are three-month averages for January-March 2018 in North America and go out to 120 hours. H5 anomaly correlation Sea-level pressure anomaly correlation 850 temps Of course these are for last winter, and there's a lot of day-to-day variability hidden in these averages. The ICON performed about as well as the (old) GFS, which I think is consistent with what we saw last winter in a number of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Ten man Johnson is ready to go back to weather53 Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Check one two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Weather53 said: Check one two Feels like old times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Done Maybe in caps like the original there has got to be a dozen or so of us that have been regulars since early 2000’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Weather53 said: Check one two LIKE. Welcome back to your old handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is what will bring the Euro home for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Feels like old times It’s gonna be the new and improved old timer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Weather53 said: Maybe in caps like the original there has got to be a dozen or so of us that have been regulars since early 2000’s Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Maybe in caps like the original there has got to be a dozen or so of us that have been regulars since early 2000’s Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You know, this could have been handled via PM. But I’m just being cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Party like it's 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Got it. Raw barhappy hour at Old Ebbits before Christmas? Ian and Matt, Jason and other locals. First two dozen rawbies on me, 53! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If you want a good laugh check out the snowfall on the control at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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