Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

frd

frd

Posted
Posted

If the FV3 is handling the Northern lattitudes better its solution could indeed be correct over the Euro. 

Not sure how well versus the Euro vs the American model + upgrade verifies , with the Northern Jet . I use to hear better than the Euro at times  in this area. 

Also,  is the question of a data void as the disturbance is North of Alaska currently. ( see below )  good point below about GOES and polar orbiters.

Also worth to note this as well from Jack  

More

So where is this disturbance now? It's north of Alaska in a data void. Usually it's the lack of upper air data that gets blamed for bad "sampling" but I'd argue it's probably more a lack of satellite data. Polar orbiters are great, but don't sample as frequently as GOES

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Ji said:

i like the FV3 way...less complicated. Just get the NS out of the way and let us have our wet 2-3 feet

 

16 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Which "good" option (other then the crap stuck in the middle version) is most viable?

I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way.   The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. 

Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way.   The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. 

Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. 

Go big or go home... I would take either

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way.   The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. 

Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. 

This event is behaving like the vast majority of the larger storms that affect the east coast. D5 and very difficult to get a handle on the track once it leaves the deep south. Leaves us guessing and frustrated. Can't think of many that don't do this. 

 We're still a full 4 days away from the storm being in the deep south. Models agree that it's a pretty vigorous shortwave/slp as it crosses the southern tier. Storms like that will try their hardest to gain latitude so that's good. If it was a weak shortwave then I would already be on board with a southern solution. Strong southern sliders certainly do happen but the typical adjustment as we cross from the med to short range is north. That happens quite a bit more often than the other way around. Another day has gone by and I don't think the picture is any clearer than it was a few days ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Time for me to fess up. I ruined a good relationship by letting politics and some other issues interfere with our love for weather. I hope you have seen since my reinstatement that I am different

i will Never forget 2/07 and other experiences. I was foolish to let other issues overwhelm great things like that. Same thing for Mat*, I stepped on that good relationship also.

Well bud, I never gave up on you.  So this is good to hear/see.  Matt will be here when the good stuff is on our doorstep!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
digital snow

digital snow

Posted
Posted

I lived in the triangle in NC for over a decade. EVERY time snow maps were showing heavy snows in NC, you end up with rain or sleet. Jan. 2016 I was in Greensboro. 5 inches of sleet from a forecast that called for a foot of snow. It takes abnormally cold temps and a true southern slider ( there were 2 last year). I am not a meteorologist, so I can only speak from experience but this setup looks like a classic MA snowstorm that teases NC with digital snow, only to watch DC get blasted as you get pelted with sleet.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
  • Author
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another day has gone by and I don't think the picture is any clearer than it was a few days ago. 

Was just about to post something to this effect. I don’t think the 12z made things any clearer. Every thing basically held, which still leaves us in limbo where climo, history, and analogs suggest we should get into the northern piece of this at least, but no NWP consensus on that. Certainly western NC and VA look golden. Models today are just more scattershot where small differences in shortwave placement and strength are the difference between us smoking citrus and shoveling. Still think we have at least 24 more hours of this too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Ji said:

you will never be you till you switch to weather53

Ten man Johnson came Not from any idea about having the Johnson of 10 men but rather the old Tennessee Man that vexed WxRski for a while. I wanted to come back anonymously back then .

going back to Weather 53 would be good and if admins want to change it then let’s do it

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Tenman Johnson said:

Ten man Johnson came Not from any idea about having the Johnson of 10 men but rather the old Tennessee Man that vexed WxRski for a while. I wanted to come back anonymously back then .

going back to Weather 53 would be good and if admins want to change it then let’s do it

I'm pretty sure you can change your own username in the user settings! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was just about to post something to this effect. I don’t think the 12z made things any clearer. Every thing basically held, which still leaves us in limbo where climo, history, and analogs suggest we should get into the northern piece of this at least, but no NWP consensus on that. Certainly western NC and VA look golden. Models today are just more scattershot where small differences in shortwave placement and strength are the difference between us smoking citrus and shoveling. Still think we have at least 24 more hours of this too. 

IMO holding the line/minor vacillation is a good thing.  If we would be seeing notable shifts this early, it could end up with Albany in the jackpot (if the NS vort gives way too soon).  We've done this enough to know that tomorrow and Thursday is when notable shifts show up (if they are going to).  Big unknown is that the Fv3 is showing good continuity between runs, so that might throw a wrench into things, but no reason to jump...yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...