Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gfs slowing things down and digging into Mexico is one of the reasons for a rainy bad track. There are other changes for the worse with hp placement but the main culprit is the slow speed and deeper dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs slowing things down and digging into Mexico is one of the reasons for a rainy bad track. There are other changes for the worse with hp placement but the main culprit is the slow speed and deeper dig. And as we all know this won’t be resolved for at least a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs slowing things down and digging into Mexico is one of the reasons for a rainy bad track. There are other changes for the worse with hp placement but the main culprit is the slow speed and deeper dig. Yeah the delay with the southern energy, plus the trailing piece of the PV that sheds off, rotates down, and digs SE of Hudson Bay on previous runs is sort of missing this run, and the ridging(behind it) in central Canada is flatter. That feature seemed to enhance the confluence to the north out in front of our storm. Eh, not really worth micro-analyzing one op run, but things are just out of sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Yep, we're in prime form with this one... Gfs went wester warmer and gefs went souther snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under. Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 FV3 looks similar to regular. Slower but better front end action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under. Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. Yea FV3 def better than OP GFS, where it drives the primary into eastern Missouri and then pops the secondary just off Myrtle, locking in the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under. Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. Perhaps we can say it’s...”meteorologically impossible?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under. Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. and a compromise of the 2 would make many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The GEFS went the other direction. Looks like alot of good tracks in there. Doesn't support the op at all which is big in my eyes as the GEFS seems to follow the op like a bunch of mini me's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 12z FV3 clown maps are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 We're going to need a better high placement to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 One thing all the models do agree on is slowing down the onset. Don't think that's a good thing. Went from a Saturday on set to now later on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We're going to need a better high placement to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under. Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. That 500 evolution is goofy AF. Good luck to us if that’s what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: That 500 evolution is goofy AF. Good luck to us if that’s what happens. Gefs back off a good bit on the pure southern slider solutions. Implies a shift away from big cold/suppression which isn't a good thing imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gefs back off a good bit on the pure southern slider solutions. Implies a shift away from big cold/suppression which isn't a good thing imo Yeah i agree, although I haven’t looked at the closely, it seems that there’s only a couple cutter solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah i agree, although I haven’t looked at the closely, it seems that there’s only a couple cutter solutions? Only 1-2 hideous tracks so thats good. Some ok tracks with temp problems. Overall a pretty good run. Way better than the op at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The -PNA days 7 and beyond is really perplexing and makes no sense. ENSO subsurface is like 0.95 correlated with PNA and its signal is +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Only 1-2 hideous tracks so thats good. Some ok tracks with temp problems. Overall a pretty good run. Way better than the op at least. Ok. The northern stream is critical to the final outcome here and its been the most variable and poorly modeled of all the major features going into this so far. We need it to supply confluence to support the high and prevent a cutter while not overpowering and squashing the storm. The good news is that it seems we likely get *some* snow in almost any scenario. So maybe we have some wiggle room. Given climo and the calendar, I think the most likely solution is probably some sort of snow-to-rain scenario with TBD amounts of each. But I also think a total whiff or a total warm rain cutter are unlikely. Famous last words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That 500 evolution is goofy AF. Good luck to us if that’s what happens. Yea, we've seen it happen before though. Typically that kind of progression would give us some frozen but a lot of mix and muck. Sometimes we can get lucky with a front end thump or a nice backside surprise if the h5 tracks good...but that kind of messed up discombobulated evolution isn't usually a big snow one for us. Still a lot of twists and turns to go before we know the details of the setup. I mentioned yesterday that dec 2003 was in the analogs and that was an example of a pretty weird progression that worked out for the nw half of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 In my experience, roll forward composites are overly factored into long term models. This could be the reason for the -PNA bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I like look of the Euro at 168 much better than the GFS, flatter flow so at least it won’t cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ok. The northern stream is critical to the final outcome here and its been the most variable and poorly modeled of all the major features going into this so far. We need it to supply confluence to support the high and prevent a cutter while not overpowering and squashing the storm. The good news is that it seems we likely get *some* snow in almost any scenario. So maybe we have some wiggle room. Given climo and the calendar, I think the most likely solution is probably some sort of snow-to-rain scenario with TBD amounts of each. But I also think a total whiff or a total warm rain cutter are unlikely. Famous last words... Before this morning's GFS run, I was just thinking about the time of year...and just how possible it was to get something as big as last night's runs were showing...that early in the month! I mean...has it ever happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I like look of the Euro at 168 much better than the GFS, flatter flow so at least it won’t cut. Yeah I was gonna say..it looks like yesterday’s 12z run. Better than 0z but shouldn’t cut like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah I was gonna say..it looks like yesterday’s 12z run. Better than 0z but shouldn’t cut like GFS the GFS OP cut but the rest of the GFS family didnt really agree..neither did the beta so i wouldnt really say the GFS cut haha(trying to be positive) this year....(which will probably end up a disaster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Better high placement at day 7 vs. the 00z. Draped over the low as opposed to scooting out in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Low at Hatteras at hour 192. That’s got to be good. I hate TT for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Snow breaking out in DC overnight Saturday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 euro looks good for surface and 850 temps map. Low is weak but i think its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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