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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs slowing things down and digging into Mexico is one of the reasons for a rainy bad track. There are other changes for the worse with hp placement but the main culprit is the slow speed and deeper dig. 

And as we all know this won’t be resolved for at least a few more days.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs slowing things down and digging into Mexico is one of the reasons for a rainy bad track. There are other changes for the worse with hp placement but the main culprit is the slow speed and deeper dig. 

Yeah the delay with the southern energy, plus the trailing piece of the PV that sheds off, rotates down, and digs SE of Hudson Bay on previous runs is sort of missing this run, and the ridging(behind it) in central Canada is flatter. That feature seemed to enhance the confluence to the north out in front of our storm. Eh, not really worth micro-analyzing one op run, but things are just out of sync.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under.  Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. 

Yea FV3 def better than OP GFS, where it drives the primary into eastern Missouri and then pops the secondary just off Myrtle, locking in the low level cold.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gefs back off a good bit on the pure southern slider solutions. Implies a shift away from big cold/suppression which isn't a good thing imo

Yeah i agree, although I haven’t looked at the closely, it seems that there’s only a couple cutter solutions? 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Only 1-2 hideous tracks so thats good. Some ok tracks with temp problems. Overall a pretty good run. Way better than the op at least. 

Ok. The northern stream is critical to the final outcome here and its been the most variable and poorly modeled of all the major features going into this so far. We need it to supply confluence to support the high and prevent a cutter while not overpowering and squashing the storm. The good news is that it seems we likely get *some* snow in almost any scenario. So maybe we have some wiggle room. Given climo and the calendar, I think the most likely solution is probably some sort of snow-to-rain scenario with TBD amounts of each. But I also think a total whiff or a total warm rain cutter are unlikely. Famous last words...

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That 500 evolution is goofy AF. Good luck to us if that’s what happens.

Yea, we've seen it happen before though. Typically that kind of progression would give us some frozen but a lot of mix and muck. Sometimes we can get lucky with a front end thump or a nice backside surprise if the h5 tracks good...but that kind of messed up discombobulated evolution isn't usually a big snow one for us. Still a lot of twists and turns to go before we know the details of the setup. I mentioned yesterday that dec 2003 was in the analogs and that was an example of a pretty weird progression that worked out for the nw half of our area. 

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34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok. The northern stream is critical to the final outcome here and its been the most variable and poorly modeled of all the major features going into this so far. We need it to supply confluence to support the high and prevent a cutter while not overpowering and squashing the storm. The good news is that it seems we likely get *some* snow in almost any scenario. So maybe we have some wiggle room. Given climo and the calendar, I think the most likely solution is probably some sort of snow-to-rain scenario with TBD amounts of each. But I also think a total whiff or a total warm rain cutter are unlikely. Famous last words...

Before this morning's GFS run, I was just thinking about the time of year...and just how possible it was to get something as big as last night's runs were showing...that early in the month! I mean...has it ever happened before?

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Yeah I was gonna say..it looks like yesterday’s 12z run. Better than 0z but shouldn’t cut like GFS

the GFS OP cut but the rest of the GFS family didnt really agree..neither did the beta so i wouldnt really say the GFS cut haha(trying to be positive) this year....(which will probably end up a disaster)

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