BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Been scary consistent for over 2 days. Going on like 10 runs now. Not sure what to say about it except I really pray it’s right. Grandpa GFS has been lurching around like a drunk uncle on thanksgiving. At some point, one of the two of them will cave to the final outcome. We all have that uncle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Been scary consistent for over 2 days. Going on like 10 runs now. Not sure what to say about it except I really pray it’s right. Grandpa GFS has been lurching around like a drunk uncle on thanksgiving. At some point, one of the two of them will cave to the final outcome. Yea, here's the last 6 @ h5. The last 2 are basically identical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Clown map of FV3 has 16-20” in Balt-Dc corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just have the new and improved GFS do the usual small north adjustment from here till the storm comes and that would be very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It doesn't work all the time because it relies on guidance getting the longwave features fairly accurate but I look at them and it's signaled we were in trouble a few times the last few years when a medium range threat looked good but the analog guidance suggested a more north track. In most cases the NWP shifted to better reflect the analog guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FV better stand for f-cking verify Far more likely to stand for Failure Verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z Ukie is suppressed. Through 7 am Monday morning precip is mostly confined to NC, TN, KY, and extreme southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Heh, gefs is split between whiffs and hits but holy crap a couple of those hits would be off the chain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS adding to the number of solutions where the trailing energy phases and brings a low up the coast a day or 2 later. Another hint that the large scale synoptics are far from nailed down with the overall evolution. That's what I was thinking the U.K. was about t do from the look at 144. It's been a trend towards that option across guidance. It's another variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Thank god FV3 came thru. I was literally on hold with PETA. Was about to send a rabbit rescue team out to Chills neighborhood. But what a crush job!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Seems more and more like a MA storm of some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just me but the euro needs to be in the same ballpark or this just doesn't feel all that great even with time still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Ian Livingston is the Capital Weather Gang guru. he's okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Been scary consistent for over 2 days. Going on like 10 runs now. Not sure what to say about it except I really pray it’s right. Grandpa GFS has been lurching around like a drunk uncle on thanksgiving. At some point, one of the two of them will cave to the final outcome. The day the GFS lost its medium range chaos, a day that will live in weenie history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The FV3 is basically a carbon copy of it's 6z self and only slightly different that the 2-3 runs before that. If nothing else, the new gfs is showing consistency. Something the old gfs was never good at. I've been impressed with it overall through the fall when I started really paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I can't remember if it was amwx or Eastern to his credit. lol, keep digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He did? Damn Ian, I'm impressed! Right after Al Gore invented the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems more and more like a MA storm of some extent. People don't know your definition of MA is a line from Roanoke to CVille to Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right after Al Gore invented the internet. Marcus and I created Eastern, which then became this place. Brian and Ian came on later (eastern) and helped to build it even more. That's the history lesson for today class. Next class: the FV3 and it's increasing popularity....until it whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nah, not just you. Before coronation I'd like to know that the old king has anointed the new. It feels like we're close in, but we're not. We're only starting our ride on the roller coaster. what? pretty sure I've been watching most here go through emotional ups and downs since friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Just me but the euro needs to be in the same ballpark or this just doesn't feel all that great even with time still Yeah, I need the Euro on board and then that's when I'll start getting excited. But the UKMET being suppressed kinda makes me think the Euro will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: what? pretty sure I've been watching most here go through emotional ups and downs since friday. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I’m still waiting for my 24” of snow the Euro gave me 24 hours out from the March event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: I’m still waiting for my 24” of snow the Euro gave me 24 hours out from the March event. It shifted north into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Was about to post this. This storm is going to decide how it’s viewed this whole winter. Yep...it's reputation is already on the line...lol And the opinion will could be sharp in either direction...receiving a winter of hugs or a winter of tosses, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Marcus and I created Eastern, which then became this place. Brian and Ian came on later (eastern) and helped to build it even more. That's the history lesson for today class. Next class: the FV3 and it's increasing popularity....until it whiffs. Well then, a big thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: 12z Ukie is suppressed. Through 7 am Monday morning precip is mostly confined to NC, TN, KY, and extreme southern VA. Ukie, ICON, and 00z Euro are all similar. But they're from Europe. They won't be able to properly sample this storm until it hits Portugal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I can envision a path to a white Christmas through this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, gefs is split between whiffs and hits but holy crap a couple of those hits would be off the chain E13 and E14 please. We all win. Spread the love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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