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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I dont know... yea that coastal is pretty far southeast but at the same time that is a lot of ridging up the east coast with a whole lot of NS energy diving in the backside... not sure what to think of that.  Its also a lot slower also... I am starting to wonder if this is still evolving in termps of that progression...maybe an initial stj wave escaping before a capture and turn up the coast.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I dont know... yea that coastal is pretty far southeast but at the same time that is a lot of ridging up the east coast with a whole lot of NS energy diving in the backside... not sure what to think of that.  Its also a lot slower also... I am starting to wonder if this is still evolving in termps of that progression...maybe an initial stj wave escaping before a capture and turn up the coast.  

I could be wrong, but I thought the CMC was trying to do that in its 12z run.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You sure this time?

Dunno...yea that slp is south of where we want but look at the GFS as the same time...the GFS kind of has a secondary development as the upper energy catches up too but its way too suppressive for anything to come of it.  But look at the UKMET at the same time...there is an opening there.  This turn probably isnt good as is, but like I said I wonder if things arent still more in flux with how this evolves then thought.  There are some attempts to key on a secondary development behind the initial stj wave and phase the NS in.  That would open a whole other can of worms...and maybe introduce temperature issues if the cold has vacated the area by then...but its an interesting twist.  Just thinking out loud.  

GFSsametime.thumb.png.af6794f7f2871e86d6dc5d84fb6eca9d.png

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno...yea that slp is south of where we want but look at the GFS as the same time...the GFS kind of has a secondary development as the upper energy catches up too but its way too suppressive for anything to come of it.  But look at the UKMET at the same time...there is an opening there.  This turn probably isnt good as is, but like I said I wonder if things arent still more in flux with how this evolves then thought.  There are some attempts to key on a secondary development behind the initial stj wave and phase the NS in.  That would open a whole other can of worms...and maybe introduce temperature issues if the cold has vacated the area by then...but its an interesting twist.  Just thinking out loud.  

GFSsametime.thumb.png.af6794f7f2871e86d6dc5d84fb6eca9d.png

this was showing up a couple days ago and showme though it had a chance.  Wonky @ss evolution verbatim, as i'm not sure what the mechanism is to leave behind a piece, but hey, stranger things have happened.  Just dont see how it could come up unless the NS energy in NE is lifting out.

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I will say for the MA peeps the gfs is continuing to suffer from convective feedback issues, specifically at 132-138. If that energy up in Maine/Canada relaxes, the HP around Toronto should be far enough to the northwest to allow the system to ride up the coast more so and allow you guys to get in the action. Just my two cents.

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