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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

just means everything is now within a certain envelope...now it's just fine tuning the details. Congrats C-Ville or Raleigh

Yeah, the spread has narrowed, closing in on probably about where we should have expected it to.  Looks like DC might be the northern fringe, or close to it.  Up here we're hoping for some systematic model bias.

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Just now, cae said:

Yeah, the spread has narrowed, closing in on probably about where we should have expected it to.  Looks like DC might be the northern fringe, or close to it.  Up here we're hoping for some systematic model bias.

its still too early to be throwing in the towel. imo. 

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GFS wasn't a total disaster. Let's hope its more well-liked sibling shows up with the goods again.

The concern for me about the CMC is it was a significant step back. Definitely more south and east, and I generally expect the CMC, especially in the medium-to-long-range, to be overly amped.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

LOL at the changes in the NS...so the gfs lost the weaker NS vort that it was diving down all the way to Boston but replaced it with a much stronger one over Maine...the result a wash.  

the gfs seems to just throw random sht in the NS every run

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Multiple issues.  The delay keeps letting the GFS rotate a lobe down into Maine to suppress.  Meanwhile the kicker in the northern plains ruins the SS sort by stringing it out.  One run.  So many pieces to resolve.

Lots of moving parts.  If all things equal in the GFS 12z and that lobe was 100 miles north, DC would be in the game.  Good, early test of the models.

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

its still too early to be throwing in the towel. imo. 

I agree.  Especially from this range.  We've seen the models collectively adjust one way or another with 5+ days to go.  Hopefully we get some more support in the ensembles.

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