Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

just means everything is now within a certain envelope...now it's just fine tuning the details. Congrats C-Ville or Raleigh

Yeah, the spread has narrowed, closing in on probably about where we should have expected it to.  Looks like DC might be the northern fringe, or close to it.  Up here we're hoping for some systematic model bias.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, cae said:

Yeah, the spread has narrowed, closing in on probably about where we should have expected it to.  Looks like DC might be the northern fringe, or close to it.  Up here we're hoping for some systematic model bias.

its still too early to be throwing in the towel. imo. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS wasn't a total disaster. Let's hope its more well-liked sibling shows up with the goods again.

The concern for me about the CMC is it was a significant step back. Definitely more south and east, and I generally expect the CMC, especially in the medium-to-long-range, to be overly amped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

LOL at the changes in the NS...so the gfs lost the weaker NS vort that it was diving down all the way to Boston but replaced it with a much stronger one over Maine...the result a wash.  

the gfs seems to just throw random sht in the NS every run

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Multiple issues.  The delay keeps letting the GFS rotate a lobe down into Maine to suppress.  Meanwhile the kicker in the northern plains ruins the SS sort by stringing it out.  One run.  So many pieces to resolve.

Lots of moving parts.  If all things equal in the GFS 12z and that lobe was 100 miles north, DC would be in the game.  Good, early test of the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

its still too early to be throwing in the towel. imo. 

I agree.  Especially from this range.  We've seen the models collectively adjust one way or another with 5+ days to go.  Hopefully we get some more support in the ensembles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...