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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

ICON seems like its really on its own alot of times...sometimes good for weenies and then you have today. It dosent seem like a good model

I like that about the ICON - it doesn't seem to be highly correlated with the other models, which gives it extra value in the ensemble of globals.  Last year it did well on several systems, but it seemed to struggle more with coastals.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

dude---everytime we have needed a north trend in the past couple of years to get snow...we have have failed. the north trend only happens when we dont need it to

If your talking about the last 2 January storms There was a north trend but we needed too much. The last couple example at day 4-5 the storm was squashed to a flat wave in the Deep South. It recovered to crush ocean city and New York City but we needed too much. That's what im saying. If we need 50-100 miles we can work with that. If it's 250 miles south going into the final 72 it's probably not. 

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