winterymix Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 swing and a miss...midlo-ville gets into the good stuff either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 30 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think by 18z today every model needs to show precip into DC at least for this to be the corner. One off model run here or there isn't cutting it I feel you, but I’d push that to 0z Thursday probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, winterymix said: swing and a miss...midlo-ville gets into the good stuff either way. Thanks for yesterday's news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 EPS Percent Chances of BWI exceeding 1, 3 6, and 12" of snow/sleet through early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I feel you, but I’d push that to 0z Thursday probably. agreed, especially with a later start on Monday vs Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 By 18Z we will be in the 5 day window according to the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for yesterday's news! FROM THE CURRENT OUTPUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, winterymix said: FROM THE CURRENT OUTPUT It says it was initialized 12z on Dec 3... yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, winterymix said: FROM THE CURRENT OUTPUT Says 12z Dec 3rd on the images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 "Starting with the 00Z 19 December cycle, the FV3-GFS uses GFDL microphysics instead of the Zhao-Carr microphysics in the GFS." Saw this in the information (i) section of the FV3-GFS comparison site. Is this referring to 2018 or 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6z icon looks good to me. Stops at 120. Likely a very close miss but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 31 minutes ago, winterymix said: G-MORNING, Trying to catch up with the smarties here. Is this tool useful? :: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gmanikin/fv3gfs/fv3images.html Liked this until i saw it was yesterdays news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 okay, i think he gets it. it was from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take. I cant find it, but that makes sense. Just remember something about manpower and my being a smart@ss saying was it "too much math". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. That is good for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. Good to start looking beyond the next 5 days! Shoot, in 2009 didn't we get "missed" to the south (LOL - still think we ended up with 6inches) before the Dec 19th HECS - this winter will be fun for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That is good for us, right? http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. Looks like the AO is heading back towards negative territory mid month as well. The latter third of the month should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. Yep, like that look. The new Euro seasonal should be out in the next 12 to 24 hours, I am very interested to see whether it looks like the overall weeklies progression. If so, the seasonal has been very stable, whereas the weeklies have been eratic at times. ( I see no reason to think the seasonal would change at this point ) You mentioned you believed the weeklies not because its the Euro, but more so because oif the background state, thats brillant, could not agree more. I can easily see how that progression from last evening's weeklies happen, and we score later in the month and in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 A couple morning thoughts: 1. We are still 5-6 days out. Anyone who thinks we need to be in the bullseye in the next 24-48 hrs hasn't lived in the MA long enough. Keep it a little south with a couple hits here and there for another 24-48 and we'll be good to go. Bullseye in the next 24-48 hrs and we should be worried of mixing, raining, or missing back to the south. 2. This is beginning to remind me of January 2016 just in terms of tracking for over a week. I know that storm bullseyed us for like a week but we've still been tracking this storm since Friday. Some of the best one's we've ever gotten have shown up a week + out. It's becoming more and more likely that this is going to be a big one somewhere between VA-PA. 3. I know there's not some long dissertation to back it up but think about this year for a minute. Record rainfall. Storm after storm performing or even over performing for our area. I've been thinking this winter is going to have some epic results in terms of some things we maybe have never seen or haven't seen in a while. 4. The FV3-GFS has been rock solid with this storm. Minor adjustments of 50-100 miles keeping the same general idea. Keep that in mind when reacting to the the giant swings of the old GFS Op/Euro/Canadian/Icon. And remember GEFS follows the old Op. 5. I'm not going to get that invested in any one op model run until 00z Thursday unless of course there is a massive shift towards suppression to florida or rainer for the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That is good for us, right? It's great for d7 modeled snow storms. Our bitmoji selves will be dancing in all the digital snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6z Euro at 90 has some very noticeable height rises along the East Coast compared to 0z. More neutral tilt with the trough as well out west. (Just signed up for Maue's site yesterday so I am playing around with it for now!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm with Leesburg, I'd like to start seeing the Euro and EPS come around to shifting north, even if just slightly today at 12z. I certainly don't think the models have locked into a solution but we'll soon be closing in on 100 hours out so time will be running short on Euro making moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Good morning 6z fv3 happy hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Good to see the storm to our south at this juncture. Expect a jog north without much confluence to block the storm from coming north. If we are still shooting blanks come Thursday 00z, id worry. We’re still 6 days out. No need to be worrying quite yet. At this point, we just need to be looking at the 500 mb pattern and teleconnections. The rest will get nailed down as we get closer. Storm is coming. That’s what’s most important at this point. That being said... DC May finally be in a better position than Baltimore for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, LP08 said: 6z Euro at 90 has some very noticeable height rises along the East Coast compared to 0z. More neutral tilt with the trough as well out west. (Just signed up for Maue's site yesterday so I am playing around with it for now!) update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: update? It only goes to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: update? It's my understanding that it only goes out to 90. Edit: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hmmm, interesting , a few mets I read online have stated the potential for this event to move North Also, Webb posted this too, and then I looked back to see what actually happened. If this is indeed the storm he is mentioning , as the dates seem to match it did effect DC and Baltimore MSLP patterns aside, I believe it was way colder before and during the 1988 event, versus how things are currently. https://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/09/us/storm-hits-east-coast-after-burying-south-in-snow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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