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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take. 

I cant find it, but that makes sense.  Just remember something about manpower and my being a smart@ss saying was it "too much math".  

 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. 

Yep, like that look. The new Euro seasonal should be out in the next 12 to 24 hours,  I am very interested to see whether it looks like the overall weeklies progression. 

If so, the seasonal has been very stable, whereas the weeklies have been eratic at times.  ( I see no reason to think the seasonal would change at this point ) 

You mentioned you believed the weeklies not because its the Euro, but more so because oif the background state, thats brillant, could not agree more. 

I can easily see how that progression from last evening's weeklies happen, and we score later in the month and in Jan.

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A couple morning thoughts: 

1. We are still 5-6 days out. Anyone who thinks we need to be in the bullseye in the next 24-48 hrs hasn't lived in the MA long enough. Keep it a little south with a couple hits here and there for another 24-48 and we'll be good to go. Bullseye in the next 24-48 hrs and we should be worried of mixing, raining, or missing back to the south. 

2. This is beginning to remind me of January 2016 just in terms of tracking for over a week. I know that storm bullseyed us for like a week but we've still been tracking this storm since Friday. Some of the best one's we've ever gotten have shown up a week + out.  It's becoming more and more likely that this is going to be a big one somewhere between VA-PA. 

3. I know there's not some long dissertation to back it up but think about this year for a minute. Record rainfall. Storm after storm performing or even over performing for our area. I've been thinking this winter is going to have some epic results in terms of some things we maybe have never seen or haven't seen in a while. 

4. The FV3-GFS has been rock solid with this storm. Minor adjustments of 50-100 miles keeping the same general idea. Keep that in mind when reacting to the the giant swings of the old GFS Op/Euro/Canadian/Icon. And remember GEFS follows the old Op.  

5. I'm not going to get that invested in any one op model run until 00z Thursday unless of course there is a massive shift towards suppression to florida or rainer for the NE

 

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6z Euro at 90 has some very noticeable height rises along the East Coast compared to 0z.  More neutral tilt with the trough as well out west.  (Just signed up for Maue's site yesterday so I am playing around with it for now!)

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Good to see the storm to our south at this juncture. Expect a jog north without much confluence to block the storm from coming north. If we are still shooting blanks come Thursday 00z, id worry. We’re still 6 days out. No need to be worrying quite yet. At this point, we just need to be looking at the 500 mb pattern and teleconnections. The rest will get nailed down as we get closer. Storm is coming. That’s what’s most important at this point.  That being said... DC May finally be in a better position than Baltimore for this one. 

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Hmmm, interesting , a few mets I read online have stated the potential for this event to move North 

Also, Webb posted this too, and then I looked back to see what actually happened.  

If this is indeed the storm he is mentioning , as the dates seem to match it did effect DC and Baltimore 

MSLP patterns aside, I believe it was way colder before and during the 1988 event,  versus how things are currently.  

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/09/us/storm-hits-east-coast-after-burying-south-in-snow.html

 

 

 

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