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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Also seeing a much quicker relaxation of the confluence to the NE.

Yep...not sure what happened to my fv3 post when it was out to only 96 hrs I must have accidentally deleted it, but by that hour you could already see the lead NS vort with confluence moving out of the way and heights building. Good stuff.

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18 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

These models:rolleyes:But I’ll take increasingly heavy snow while watching the Ravens-Chiefs game 

Not models....merely guidance. They were never created or programmed with the sole idea of providing a solidly "modeled" forecast. They were designed to help forecasters see the atmosphere with more detail to aid in creating a forecast. But that's another topic for another day. Like they say, live by the models die by the models.

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

6z GFS improves vs 0z

Might try to come almost NNE.   H5 presentation is MUCH better.   Let's all get back on this rollercoaster again. 

I never got off...but I'm getting dizzy and the guy keeps yelling at me that I've been out of tickets for hours and he's calling the police. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are the GEFS ran off of the GFS or are they completely independent? I'm wondering if when the FV3 becomes implemented if the GEFS will be ran off of a different progam/algorithm than current.

A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming.

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming.

actually check that.  Hi risk and i were discussing the other day and he said that it is too big an undertaking and they dont have the resources to convert the GEFS to Fv3.  I think you'll have a new Op to stare at w/ same old GEFS for longer range viewing.  I'll dig back through my posts and see if i can find it.  Need more coffee/dramamine first.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

actually check that.  Hi risk and i were discussing the other day and he said that it is too big an undertaking and they dont have the resources to convert the GEFS to Fv3.  I think you'll have a new Op to stare at w/ same old GEFS for longer range viewing.  I'll dig back through my posts and see if i can find it.  Need more coffee/dramamine first.

I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take. 

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26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That may be so but if you notice to the south it is juicing up over previous runs. So when this whole thing shifts north we will be talking 2+ feet of snow vs. 1+ feet. :D

Looking forward to a good NAMing at some point.  :lol: Seriously, how different is this from any of these types of storms we’ve had over the last 6 months? So many of them were almost monsoonal at times in our warmer days. Now we finally have the cold to work with. There’s a reason we have broken yearly QPF records in 2018. Now we hopefully just continue that trend...but with pure white gold for the foreseeable future (from my lips to the snow gods ears). 

 

Eta: Says Captain Obvious. I’ll show my way out now and head over to the beginner WX boards now. 

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