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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It keeps getting close, but just misses us.  Better than 0z for sure tho

Took a step back I thought earlier in the evolution but came on strong later in the run with higher heights showing up in front of the storm. Liked the tilt of the trough better as well which would give the storm more room to move north as it strengthened. 

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. 

I agree with this. As always once all energy is better sampled at around 3-4 day lead is when we generally see sudden changes with the inevitable shift. Enough ens members in all 3 families suggesting stay tuned even farther N. Like I keep saying Carolinas up to S NE very much still in play. Minor sw changes yield large surface changes and we deal with this every time we track a phased vs non phased system but this one also has the wrench of a stall and 3rd lobe of energy trying to work into it.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

By hour 96 on the FV3 we are seeing a slightly quicker departure of the confluence in the NE. But it may be a wash as we are seeing a slightly quicker southern low as well.

We need Goldilocks confluence.  Not too hot or cold but  just right.  That in itself it like threading the needle because you can’t tell exactly how it will set up 5-6 days out. 

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37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Took a step back I thought earlier in the evolution but came on strong later in the run with higher heights showing up in front of the storm. Liked the tilt of the trough better as well which would give the storm more room to move north as it strengthened. 

One thing we are starting to see is the idea that this takes more of a classic track ie off Carolinas coast towards or inside hatteras then NE/NNE as opposed to those runs past that were off the Carolinas then due E or even ESE. Upper levels gaining some support for this. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

We need Goldilocks confluence.  Not too hot or cold but  just right.  That in itself it like threading the needle because you can’t tell exactly how it will set up 5-6 days out. 

Yeah, once this storm enters California, expect some changes. Better sampling, right? So that's when, sometime on Thursday. Ugh.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We need Goldilocks confluence.  Not too hot or cold but  just right.  That in itself it like threading the needle because you can’t tell exactly how it will set up 5-6 days out. 

Actually I think there is more play with the confluence then you may think. Just shift that 50-100 miles north then currently shown and we are looking good. 6+ hour quicker departure we are good. Even if we see the southern low initially gain some more latitude as it treks across the south we are good as the confluence relaxes just in time for the low to make a move north. Really the setup is there as shown it just needs some minor tweaking.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One thing we are starting to see is the idea that this takes more of a classic track ie off Carolinas coast towards or inside hatteras then NNE as opposed to those runs past that were off the Carolinas then due E or even ESE. Upper levels gaining some support for this. 

My thoughts have been for awhile that despite all the different looks we have seen that this would eventually end up with this track. I know I am in the minority here with this as well, but I also feel what we will end up with is a hybrid Miller A/B as we see the primary make a move towards Tenn. before we see a jump to the coast.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Night and day

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh138_trend.gif

I flip through all the 500's from past runs and have to SMH when we have people come out with definitive statements that is a done deal with it being a southern slider. Now how anyone can look at the large run to run changes, in some case massive changes, and be so sure is beyond me.

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I flip through all the 500's from past runs and have to SMH when we have people come out with definitive statements that is a done deal with it being a southern slider. Now how anyone can look at the large run to run changes, in some case massive changes, and be so sure is beyond me.

I don’t know much but I know it’s not a done deal.  We are currently on a dark roller coaster with blindfolds on.  

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

FV3 will make people happy. 

Making people happy since 2018!!! But in all seriousness this new improved model has been holding steady and improving ever so slightly and keeping with the ensembles as well. Do like the 500 look as well. Lets move on to 12z

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