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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?)

Yea, it's possible. But it's an odds thing. If you look at all of them a southern storm is favored but half get at least 2" into DC. It's fair to say DC has a 50/50 shot at some snow looking at all guidance today. For now, sw va is in the best spot. Many different solutions give them snow. But all of this can and likely will change over the coming days. We're decades from this ever being an exact science 5 days out. Especially with synoptic events. 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?)

From what I surmise, they take the operational model and run it at a lower resolution and call it the control.  Then they tweak the inputs to account for sampling bias/error, and then run the model in many iterations.  Some give us mega snow.  Some are southern sliders.  Am I missing anything?

 

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?)

This storm is loaded with precip and won't be moving fast. 2"+ qpf has been showing up every run. The big hit is nothing more than a solution that includes the precip max over our area with all snow ptype. Someone south of us may get several feet of snow unless it shifts north. Then my yard does. 

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?)

Ok so the gefs Fv3 and EPS are all targeting about 100 miles southwest of D.C. With a major snowfall. The major factor suppressing it south is the northern stream flow over New England. In this case a vort diving down in front. Like a clipper. So if that's 100 miles north of where they project it...and how often is a clipper off 100 miles from day 5?  I'm simplifying this but I think you think the error it would take to get the difference we need is greater than it is. 

ETA: of course the error could be the other way and this gets squashed more but we won't talk about such trivialities 

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Yea even more evident by 138. It's shifting the main show into NC. Dives that NS in like the gfs and squashed. Not a disaster but worse. Disappointing way to end the night. 
We have 24 to 36 hours to fix this. 18z gave us life but as usual when we need a north trend...it goes south
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs had a run that didn't get anything into nc even. Lol. It's a bad run though. I agree that if we don't start to see any improvement in 36 hours it starts to become unlikely. 

Mannnn this thing ain't comin' north...lol I'd bet money on it if I were a gambler (but it would be an unwise bet because it's one drive  by cynicism, lol) 

(I think I'll be less cynical when we actually get good model trends that eventually result in a hit...but the past two years...multiple failures, and trying to will a ns feature out of the way. Gotta think the nino will make things easier though...just gotta be patient. But again, the last two years is making that difficult. Can barely remember what a good tracking week felt like!)

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14 minutes ago, Scud said:

Meteorology is a quantum science. Possibilities are infinite in time, but as time becomes short, so do the possibilities. We still have time....

Some believe that time is not linear. If so then you have just as many possibilities one second from now that you would have a million years from now.

By the way, in your linear approach, possibilities would be infinite only if you have infinite amounts of time. 

 

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Some believe that time is not linear. If so then you have just as many possibilities one second from now that you would have a million years from now.

By the way, in your linear approach, possibilities would be infinite only if you have infinite amounts of time. 

 

Only if possibilites take time. In physics, they do...

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Overnight EPS took a step back as well. Nothing earth shattering as the changes seen were small which reflects the fact that the outcome can flip on a dime. So this storm is still very much in play for those to the north. 
2 to 4 max for north of jeb land

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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