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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not at this range. We have had a few examples of big storms that locked in day 7 but that's rare.  Think of the 2 storms that teased us the last two January's. Both were way south at day 6. Both trended north enough to hit the coast and NYC. They were on the outside looking in like we are now at day 5-6. Last 2 march storms trended north. 2017 turned from a snow to a sleet storm. Last winter almost screwed us with the final north trend. The heaviest area of snow ended up in central PA and to NYC and they were mostly out of the game 72 hours out. 2016 I was hanging out on the northern fringe all week leading up. The heaviest actually ended up northwest of me!  20" got up into central PA. NYC was outside looking in then set their all time record. Feb 2014 I was up in central PA and outside looking in all week and ended up with 13".  

Do they always trend north? No...and like I said earlier if I had to bet this likely stays south. But it's close. 60/40 close Imo. I think because we haven't had a late save from the south lately people are thinking that just doesn't happen. But it can. We have been screwed by the north trend several times recently and places like Salisbury and ocean city and Richmond have been saved by it. Maybe it's our turn. Maybe not. But people are making way too many declarative statements based on fairly close misses at 120 hours. I wish guidance was that good but it's not!

I'm sure it can, but...yeah, kinda hard to believe  given all the resistance it seems to be getting from that pesky ns vort...(unless the models are gonna be wrong about that...)

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm sure it can, but...yeah, kinda hard to believe  given all the resistance it seems to be getting from that pesky ns vort...(unless the models are gonna be wrong about that...)

It's a fairly minor error that is creating the difference between suppressed and a hit.  Ok put it this way...if a clipper was modeled to hit us at 120 hours how confident would you be that guidance was going to nail that?  That's what we're talking about. If they are wrong about 12 hours or 150 miles with a northern stream vort we're talking about a big hit.  

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2 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA.

You’d be right. DCA went down an inch and SW Virginia jacking with over a foot.

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While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA.

 

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Big improvement for central/southern VA, somewhat so for western VA. Pulled back ever so slightly towards DC and MD.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a fairly minor error that is creating the difference between suppressed and a hit.  Ok put it this way...if a clipper was modeled to hit us at 120 hours how confident would you be that guidance was going to nail that?  That's what we're talking about. If they are wrong about 12 hours or 150 miles with a northern stream vort we're talking about a big hit.  

GEFS looks pretty wet for our area though. edit: looks similar to 18z. We area in the blue qpf gfs-ens_apcpn_us_32.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA.

The .5 qpf straddles the mason dixon line exactly same as 18z. Lol. rare to see two identical runs at this range. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This is not a realistic panel on the cmc. A 994 at the mouth of the Potomac is not snowing near the cities like that 

It is phasing with the NS and the temps crash and tighten right as it passes. It's unlikely. But it's the ggem so I'm not wasting much time on meso analysis. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

00z has been a disaster. We took a slight step back instead of making a step forward. Oh well....time to look at week 4 of the weeklies

Yea right. The only thing you'll be looking at is the euro then eps then 6z suite and by 12z it's close enough to start extrapolating the nam  

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FV3 remarkably consistent, but less amped. Knocks down totals for everyone by a little.

Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

See I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol

Like I said a fairly small difference in how guidance is handling discreet northern stream vorts is leading to these differences. And the difference between a southern VA hit and a DC hit in the longwave pattern is a fairly minor error from this range.  

When the guidance shows us in the jackpot at 120+ hours no one trusts them. We know better. But when they show us getting fringed suddenly they are deadly accurate?  

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