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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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People need to stop making decisions based on single op runs at 120+ hours.  The typical error at this range is still quite large. The guidance will spray solutions around but as long as it's not squashed down to Florida or cutting to our west we're still in the game.  After the whole 0z suite maybe we will see a real trend but so far both the gfs and ggem were within typical error spread from their last runs for this range. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

very dissapointing GFS run....its like we lost all that we made up at 18z

I guess but it's better then 12z. I just don't want to see squash city at this range. Once we get to about 100 hours I'll want to see consistent improvements or I'll start to worry more. At this range just keep it close. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess but it's better then 12z. I just don't want to see squash city at this range. Once we get to about 100 hours I'll want to see consistent improvements or I'll start to worry more. At this range just keep it close. 

I mean...has this storm ever felt like it wanted to turn north?...Seems like the whole flow or whatever is flat or something (and, as cranky had suggested earlier...the open Atlantic, limiting lattitude?)

And if it were gonna be more north...wouldn't we be at least seeing a hint of consensus that that could happen?

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's more disappointing to me than the gfs 

the ukmet is known for having a strong solution followed by a POS of low that goes to bermuda the next run. We are running out of time..gotta make a move by Wednesday at the latest

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival!

A great storm but it did lack a certain roller coaster tracking period that is part of the fun. Just think if this one does pan out for us.  We can look back at the Souther Slider, Cutter, and this storm is killing puppies and bunnies and laugh while it’s ripping fatties on Sunday night

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival!

no..it had one run where we lost 10 inches as it went south..went from like 25 to 15. It was the euro and psu had a meltdown i think

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...has this storm ever felt like it wanted to turn north?...Seems like the whole flow or whatever is flat or something (and, as cranky had suggested earlier...the open Atlantic, limiting lattitude?)

And if it were gonna be more north...wouldn't we be at least seeing a hint of consensus that that could happen?

Not at this range. We have had a few examples of big storms that locked in day 7 but that's rare.  Think of the 2 storms that teased us the last two January's. Both were way south at day 6. Both trended north enough to hit the coast and NYC. They were on the outside looking in like we are now at day 5-6. Last 2 march storms trended north. 2017 turned from a snow to a sleet storm. Last winter almost screwed us with the final north trend. The heaviest area of snow ended up in central PA and to NYC and they were mostly out of the game 72 hours out. 2016 I was hanging out on the northern fringe all week leading up. The heaviest actually ended up northwest of me!  20" got up into central PA. NYC was outside looking in then set their all time record. Feb 2014 I was up in central PA and outside looking in all week and ended up with 13".  

Do they always trend north? No...and like I said earlier if I had to bet this likely stays south. But it's close. 60/40 close Imo. I think because we haven't had a late save from the south lately people are thinking that just doesn't happen. But it can. We have been screwed by the north trend several times recently and places like Salisbury and ocean city and Richmond have been saved by it. Maybe it's our turn. Maybe not. But people are making way too many declarative statements based on fairly close misses at 120 hours. I wish guidance was that good but it's not!

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival!

2016 had curve balls too just not for D.C.  But D.C. Went from the northern side of the bullseye to the southern edge in the last 48 hours. And NYC went from nothing to their largest snowfall ever. 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

no..it had one run where we lost 10 inches as it went south..went from like 25 to 15. It was the euro and psu had a meltdown i think

I remember a few trying to antagonize me into a meltdown.  But I wasn't too concerned.  Yea it was a bit nerve wrackinh but It was just one run and bounced back.  it was a bit of a "hmm" after days of solid crush runs. But yea there was one euro run in medium range that cut me to a few inches and had D.C. on the fringe of heavy snow.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I remember a few trying to antagonize me into a meltdown.  But I wasn't too concerned.  It was just one run and bounced back.  But yea it was a bit of a "hmm" after days of solid crush runs. But yea there was one euro run in medium range that cut me to a few inches and had D.C. on the fringe of heavy snow.  

it happens every storm...we think we are on smooth sailing..and then we hit this bump in the road that makes us rethink everything. Fortunately in 2016...it was just one model run...lol and it rebounded quickly!

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Is it bad or good that the heights out in the NE are a lil higher on 96 comparing to 102?  For the FV3

I like what I see over the northeast. But the heights are slightly more suppressive in the Midwest. In the end the heights to our north are more important but if those lower heights in the Midwest translate east later in it could be a wash. Overall minor changes so far. 

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