WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree with everything you wrote. Weeklies get a serious -ao going within 4 weeks and it only gets stronger. Our fate is predicated there. Right now the ao is flipping positive which is fine. But if we're going to move into deep winter by the holiday week then my eyes are focused right there. I want to see the ao flipping negative asap on ens guidance. If it happens before Christmas then only bad luck will be to blame if we don't do well. Heck, DC could be halfway to climo next weekend... Going to be interesting to watch the pattern get back to where we want it after the 12th. I’d wag that we’ll have a favorable pattern by Xmas +/- 3 days. Might be like this pattern where we have some cutters and NE storms before things evolve favorable for us. But I bet we snow between Xmas and new years at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Onset is late Christmas day into boxing day. 3+ weeks should be enough lead time to adjust timing to Christmas eve and also move the jackpot overhead. That stuff in Mexico is ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I assume this means green light Confluence moving NE opens the door So far the last few weeks seems to reveal that Old Man Winter's tendencies and trends seem cold(er) and snow more than warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is the elusive mini pattern. Mini +pna, mini aleutian trough, mini -nao, mini 50/50, and mini southern wave in the deep southwest. Result? Mini HECS I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 As I mentioned several days ago...when on the northern fringe I always look south to see how much room I have but I have to be ON the fringe not booking a flight to Myrtle Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: That cant be right. Stephens City gets more than Winchester on that map. Everyone knows that is impossible. That would be a first, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here’s WPC’s thinking as of 20z for Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This current burst of historic events--16"+ at DCA, 20"+ for the N and W suburbs--from 1996 onward has actually been spaced out across the months that cover meteorological winter. In my back yard, for example, here are all the 20"+ snowstorms from 1996 onward, slotted into a half-month window: Dec 16-31: 12/18-19/09 Jan 1-15: 1/6-8/96 Jan 16-31: 1/22-23/16 Feb 1-14: 2/5-6/10 Feb 15-28: 2/15-18/03 There's only *one* remaining half-month period of meteorological winter where DCA hasn't seen a 16"+ storm and I haven't seen a 20"+ storm- December 1-15. I'm definitely not saying it's going to happen this year. But of course I'd love to see that last window get filled in soon by a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Don't know if this was posted here yet but this pretty much sums up what we've been talking about for a while. Once these storms move on shore we can finally get some more accurate observation data fed into the models and maybe have some more consistency in these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Umm.. . To see a look like that pop up in January is the most impressive thing for me. It’s not often our coldest month comes out with a beauty of a pattern like that in a Nino. Caveat about weeklies and all, but wow... Just...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 ICON gets the 00z suite off a disappointing start for NVA/DC. Precip primarily stays RIC/south. SW VA highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: ICON gets the 00z suite off a disappointing start for NVA/DC. Precip primarily stays RIC/south. SW VA highest totals. Its pretty much warm for everyone... even NC gets next to nothing snow-wise but rain... so its meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: ICON gets the 00z suite off a disappointing start for NVA/DC. Precip primarily stays RIC/south. SW VA highest totals. The Germans are only good at making fast cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Well, don't like where the GFS is going so far. Less amped than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS might be too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, don't like where the GFS is going so far. Less amped than 18z Looks almost identical as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What a storm! Too bad it's going to be so warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, don't like where the GFS is going so far. Less amped than 18z Yeah...more similar to 12z unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Don’t like seeing the lack of closed 500 low like in 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Looks almost identical as 12z It doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Cmc tracks right over our roofs. Some snow but rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: It doesn't Really? The vort looks exactly alike unless I am reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc tracks right over our roofs. Some snow but rain as well. Rains for all into the NE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Better than 12z so far but no 18z. Nothing is ever too easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Nothing meaningful north of Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 0z GFS is a compromise between the 18z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What do you expect from the op d7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I want to see the Fv3 before I begin to accept this will in fact be a southern slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I’m back to throwing the GFS in the trash. Meh. There is always tomorrow’s runs. And the next day and yada yada yada. Good night peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.