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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I agree with everything you wrote. Weeklies get a serious -ao going within 4 weeks and it only gets stronger. Our fate is predicated there. Right now the ao is flipping positive which is fine. But if we're going to move into deep winter by the holiday week then my eyes are focused right there. I want to see the ao flipping negative asap on ens guidance. If it happens before Christmas then only bad luck will be to blame if we don't do well. Heck, DC could be halfway to climo next weekend...

Going to be interesting to watch the pattern get back to where we want it after the 12th. I’d wag that we’ll have a favorable pattern by Xmas +/- 3 days. Might be like this pattern where we have some cutters and NE storms before things evolve favorable for us. But I bet we snow between Xmas and new years at least once.

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This current burst of historic events--16"+ at DCA, 20"+ for the N and W suburbs--from 1996 onward has actually been spaced out across the months that cover meteorological winter. In my back yard, for example, here are all the 20"+ snowstorms from 1996 onward, slotted into a half-month window:

Dec 16-31: 12/18-19/09

Jan 1-15: 1/6-8/96

Jan 16-31: 1/22-23/16

Feb 1-14: 2/5-6/10

Feb 15-28: 2/15-18/03

There's only *one* remaining half-month period of meteorological winter where DCA hasn't seen a 16"+ storm and I haven't seen a 20"+ storm- December 1-15. I'm definitely not saying it's going to happen this year. But of course I'd love to see that last window get filled in soon by a big one. 

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