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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

No matter what happens this weekend, that look leads me to believe some seriously fun times are right around the corner. 

I am so happy I could cry.

Plus I am suffering form data overload , too much great weather info to digest! 

The progression of the weeklies fits @Isotherm seasonal forecast. So far, so good. 

Excellent times ahead  !!  I hope the board doesn't crash.  

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apologies if this has already been posted earlier in the thread (I couldn't find any references), but for those who follow Wes Junker in the Capital Weather Gang section of the Washington Post, here is his take on the potential weekend storm, written earlier this afternoon:
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/03/washington-region-may-sit-edge-winter-storm-this-weekend/?utm_term=.1fd9a5cdf404

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

That cant be right. Stephens City gets more than Winchester on that map. Everyone knows that is impossible.

I mean could you ask for a better snow map 6 days out?  It would take a serious fail for most of this sub forum to not get snow next weekend.  How often are we in this position.  CMC is chuckling right now

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29 minutes ago, Scud said:

More better

fv3p_asnow_neus_32.png

Hmm when have I seen that look before... oh like 5 days before almost every stj driven hecs we've had.  

I don't have a crystal ball and it could easily get squashed if the northern stream invents another vort to dive down at the wrong time...but this is exactly where I want an stj system at day 5 with only marginal blocking. I've heard there is none but that's not true, the combo of a displaced PV with some ridging in Greenland and that 50/50 acts as a weak bootleg block in this case.  It won't show up on an nao index but it works to impact the longwave pattern the way we want.  But it's relaxing in front as we want. We may well end up rooting for the north trend to stop before it's done. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is the elusive mini pattern. Mini +pna, mini aleutian trough, mini -nao, mini 50/50, and mini southern wave in the deep southwest. Result? Mini HECS

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

This looks great but we potentially have a HECS staring us right in the face six days from now.

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies are the perfect retro/rollover pattern that we discussed when the AK trough first showed up. Huge changes from just a few days ago though so caution signs but man...this run is as epic as it gets. We can spare half that pattern and still snow. 

I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited. 

I don't know what more to wait for. The mjo keeps cycling cold then dying without any grand tours of the warm phases. The enso looks pretty close to the composite of all our big years. The PV is a weak pathetic pos this year that's getting beat around like a piñata. Everytime we get a trough in the east its storms galore. We're running cold and every attempt to flip quickly reverts. The nao looks ok and tends to only trend better later in nino years. 

 Im all in. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Won't be the first or last time but I've seen enough. I expect this to be a big year and will be disappointed (and very wrong) if it's not. 

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apologies if this has already been posted earlier in the thread (I couldn't find any references), but for those who follow Wes Junker in the Capital Weather Gang section of the Washington Post, here is his take on the potential weekend storm, written earlier this afternoon:
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/03/washington-region-may-sit-edge-winter-storm-this-weekend/?utm_term=.1fd9a5cdf404
Cgw are worthless now probably are at 2/10 for the storm on their scale. Up from 1.5/10


Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, luckyamaha said:

Cgw are worthless now probably are at 2/10 for the storm on their scale. Up from 1.5/10


Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Would you go higher than 2/10 6 days out?  6 hours ago we were on the train to Supressionville

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited.

I agree with everything you wrote. Weeklies get a serious -ao going within 4 weeks and it only gets stronger. Our fate is predicated there. Right now the ao is flipping positive which is fine. But if we're going to move into deep winter by the holiday week then my eyes are focused right there. I want to see the ao flipping negative asap on ens guidance. If it happens before Christmas then only bad luck will be to blame if we don't do well. Heck, DC could be halfway to climo next weekend...

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