Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 If I saw a real time satellite picture that looked like this and I didn't get a flake of snow I would seriously consider killing a baby bunny with my bare hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:49 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: When people say it looks less suppressive, are you looking at trends or the previous run? Expand Usually I'm looking at h5 and comparing to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:49 PM, Wonderdog said: Bristow, your one model run away from double digits. Expand Yes you too..unless the cut off is so severe every mile represents 1 inch...then I am sorry...we can chase to Nokesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:49 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: When people say it looks less suppressive, are you looking at trends or the previous run? Expand Yes, when you have h5 anomaly or vort panels up on TT, click previous run and toggle back and forth while watching the position of the isobars in front of the shortwave. It's easy to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:51 PM, Bob Chill said: If I saw a real time satellite picture that looked like this and I didn't get a flake of snow I would seriously consider killing a baby bunny with my bare hands Expand Just as long as it is a bunny and not a puppy like someone we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:46 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Might be a *tad* early, but the 18z FV3 seems a little less suppressive @ 90. Expand The low out in Mexico is already more north than the GFS. I’m betting this could be the digital snow we all need at happy hour. Just hope that border wall doesn’t impede its flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:51 PM, Bob Chill said: If I saw a real time satellite picture that looked like this and I didn't get a flake of snow I would seriously consider killing a baby bunny with my bare hands Expand You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does. I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:49 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: When people say it looks less suppressive, are you looking at trends or the previous run? Expand Dont know if you use Tropical Tidbits...so maybe you already know this but its the best site toggling back and forth between runs. Really allows you to pick up on subtle differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:52 PM, Bob Chill said: Yes, when you have h5 anomaly or vort panels up on TT, click previous run and toggle back and forth while watching the position of the isobars in front of the shortwave. It's easy to see. Expand I honestly see wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:54 PM, psuhoffman said: You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does. I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even. Expand Sir fringed has spoken! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:54 PM, showmethesnow said: Just as long as it is a bunny and not a puppy like someone we know. Expand Keep it up and we're gonna have a PETA protest up in here soon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:55 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I honestly see wobbles. Expand Go to the regular GFS hour 126 and toggle back to the previous run (12z at 132). That’s not just a wobble, that’s a completely different look at H5: closed low now and more importantly look towards NE. Higher heights at 18z and less energy off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:54 PM, psuhoffman said: You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does. I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even. Expand I totally agree. I 70 is the most likely cutoff and not I 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:55 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I honestly see wobbles. Expand I'll post an explanation with visuals later when I have time ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:58 PM, nj2va said: Go to the regular GFS hour 126 and toggle back to the previous run (12z at 132). That’s not just a wobble, that’s a completely different look at H5: closed low now and more importantly look towards NE. Higher heights at 18z and less energy off the coast. Expand I think our discrepancies are the single run versus trend comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:00 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I think our discrepancies are the single run versus trend comparison. Expand Maybe hr 132 shows the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:00 PM, Bob Chill said: I totally agree. I 70 is the most likely cutoff and not I 66. Expand Everyone's got jokes tonight. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 What's the ensembles be souther of 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:06 PM, Ji said: What's the ensembles be souther of 12z lolWatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:06 PM, Ji said: What's the ensembles be souther of 12z lol Expand Drunk already? Nice it is happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:07 PM, Ji said: On 12/3/2018 at 11:06 PM, Ji said: What's the ensembles be souther of 12z lol Expand Watch Expand There is an edit button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:07 PM, Ji said: On 12/3/2018 at 11:06 PM, Ji said: What's the ensembles be souther of 12z lol Expand Watch Expand Edit button too complicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:07 PM, JakkelWx said: There is an edit button Expand This explains a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:02 PM, JakkelWx said: Expand I agree but that's a pretty typical gfs error at even medium range. Ok back to putting up lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GEFS definitely not south of 12z. 6” line to DC. 2” line is up near Trenton. Haven’t looked through the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Animating the GFS, it doesn't look so bad in the long run. I think we'll keep getting +PNA shots this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:11 PM, nj2va said: GEFS definitely not south of 12z. 6” line to DC. 2” line is up near Trenton. Haven’t looked through the individual members.Can only find it on weathermodels and this is the best I can zoom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:12 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Animating the GFS, it doesn't look so bad in the long run. I think we'll keep getting +PNA shots this year. Expand Admit it. You just do this to tweak PSU don't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro Weeklies As expected, later December looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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