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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

When people say it looks less suppressive, are you looking at trends or the previous run?

Yes, when you have h5 anomaly or vort panels up on TT, click previous run and toggle back and forth while watching the position of the isobars in front of the shortwave. It's easy to see. 

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11 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Might be a *tad* early, but the 18z FV3 seems a little less suppressive @ 90.   

The low out in Mexico is already more north than the GFS. I’m betting this could be the digital snow we all need at happy hour. Just hope that border wall doesn’t impede its flow. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If I saw a real time satellite picture that looked like this and I didn't get a flake of snow I would seriously consider killing a baby bunny with my bare hands 

gfs_ir_us_22.png

You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does.  I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even. 

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4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

When people say it looks less suppressive, are you looking at trends or the previous run?

Dont know if you use Tropical Tidbits...so maybe you already know this but its the best site toggling back and forth between runs.  Really allows you to pick up on subtle differences.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, when you have h5 anomaly or vort panels up on TT, click previous run and toggle back and forth while watching the position of the isobars in front of the shortwave. It's easy to see.  

I honestly see wobbles.

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I honestly see wobbles.

Go to the regular GFS hour 126 and toggle back to the previous run (12z at 132).  That’s not just a wobble, that’s a completely different look at H5:  closed low now and more importantly look towards NE.  Higher heights at 18z and less energy off the coast.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does.  I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even. 

I totally agree. I 70 is the most likely cutoff and not I 66. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Go to the regular GFS hour 126 and toggle back to the previous run (12z at 132).  That’s not just a wobble, that’s a completely different look at H5:  closed low now and more importantly look towards NE.  Higher heights at 18z and less energy off the coast.  

I think our discrepancies are the single run versus trend comparison.

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