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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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@Bob Chill @WxUSAF

The worry about thermals from the euro op might be overdone. Looking at all the ensemble members that climb the coast they all have a good snowfall on the NW side. Some go to rain in DC because they track inside our ideal track but none are pure Rainers. I think the implication being that if it's actually precipitating in our area the "marginal" cold is good enough given convective cooling processes.  That could change but this EPS run didn't seem to think temps are a big problem. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there. 

Gotta say I’m impressed with some of the numbers the Euro is spitting out for my area. Would be nuts man! 

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EPS and GEFS now both look about the same d11-15. The mild period seems to only be 4-5 days and then a shift to pretty much a textbook Dec Nino hemispheric pattern. Weeklies will probably be faster with the +PNA (and maybe -EPO) than the last run. Hopefully the last 10 days of the month turn back towards a more wintry pattern for the east. Seems that is the direction ens are going for now. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS and GEFS now both look about the same d11-15. The mild period seems to only be 4-5 days and then a shift to pretty much a textbook Dec Nino hemispheric pattern. Weeklies will probably be faster with the +PNA (and maybe -EPO) than the last run. Hopefully the last 10 days of the month turn back towards a more wintry pattern for the east. Seems that is the direction ens are going for now. 

To me it looks like the base state of most of the important factors for our snow chances are pretty good. Attempts at bad patterns quickly bounce back into a pretty good look. I think it's only a matter of time this year. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is what the gfs was forecasting 144 hours before the Dec 2009 storm. Lol

 

And this was what it ended up as

 

Not comparing the two storms just pointing out what kinds of errors can happen from 144 hours. Now go look at the h5 difference between the runs with a hit for our area and the one with a close miss. We're not talking earth shattering adjustments for this lead. 

2

I remember a few things about this storm. The first was how convinced I was it was going to go south, and second how the forecast started to really change in our favor as we got closer. The last was DT's comment that there was "no reason why this will not go north" and it opened the door to the historic storm.. and it was a good cold snow! My hopes are becoming less and less for this to turn favorable, but there is hope! We have advanced quite a bit in technology since then, but errors are just as possible today as they were then! What do we want to see over the next few days (besides the obvious model changes)

To me: 

  1. Speed of the wave
  2. The confluence in NE
  3. Where the wave comes on shore out west
  4. Strength of the storm

A million others I am certain, but these are the very first things I look at when the model shows the energy hitting the west coast

 

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9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I remember a few things about this storm. The first was how convinced I was it was going to go south, and second how the forecast started to really change in our favor as we got closer. The last was DT's comment that there was "no reason why this will not go north" and it opened the door to the historic storm.. and it was a good cold snow! My hopes are becoming less and less for this to turn favorable, but there is hope! We have advanced quite a bit in technology since then, but errors are just as possible today as they were then! What do we want to see over the next few days (besides the obvious model changes)

To me: 

  1. Speed of the wave
  2. The confluence in NE
  3. Where the wave comes on shore out west
  4. Strength of the storm

A million others I am certain, but these are the very first things I look at when the model shows the energy hitting the west coast

 

DT is never wrong

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