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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Expect suppression to show up because high is stout and moving in instead of already locked in or moving off.  The origin of the low, tx/la gulf coast is utter perfection and see how it plays out as it moves ne and into cold air 

That can still change. ;)

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Look how close the high and low heights are to aligning in textbook fashion on the euro!  All we need is a slightly faster ns and slower ss.  That's much better than hoping for the ss to speed up in westerly flow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120312/ecmwf_z500a_eus_7.png

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i bring this up every year. You guys ready

We are too far east for Clippers

too far south for Miller Bs

too far North for Southern Sliders

too far west for Norlun troughs

i am sure i forgot something else

Too far east for cutters as well.

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Meh, really not a good run with the outcome. It looked better leading in but a lot of problems are showing up...

Outside the GFS, I like the 500 evolution so far in today's 12z suite. Little improvements in a few different ways.  That's probably worth declaring victory at this stage, with thermal problems something to deal with a bit closer to D-day.  Although the airmass is pretty stale by Monday, it still should be dry enough that precipitation will evaporationally cool things below freezing.  Looking at euro precipitation maps seems to confirm that.  We'll see what the EPS does. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Outside the GFS, I like the 500 evolution so far in today's 12z suite. Little improvements in a few different ways.  That's probably worth declaring victory at this stage, with thermal problems something to deal with a bit closer to D-day.  Although the airmass is pretty stale by Monday, it still should be dry enough that precipitation will evaporationally cool things below freezing.  Looking at euro precipitation maps seems to confirm that.  We'll see what the EPS does. 

hearbreaking map but close enough. image.png.42a669afc1025e6613faf4bba105af66.png

 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Eps is a close match to the previous run with the low. Only thing different is that we are seeing a stronger signal. Like the look later on in the run with the trough as the low is off the coast. Probably argues for bringing the low up the coast more so then the previous run.

I was looking at the 6hr precip mean. Seems more south no? 

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5 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Don’t know why but in all my  model watching and with a southern based low, Miller A, the 5 day is what I have found works best. It seems to me that 5 day gives a broad, binocular like assessment and then the 2,3,4 day  gets microscopic like and jumps all over the place.

What do you mean by the 5 day?

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