Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:45 PM, mappy said: for VA? Expand Where, and how much is yet to be determined. We are still in play.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Where have the ensembles shown the high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Expect suppression to show up because high is stout and moving in instead of already locked in or moving off. The origin of the low, tx/la gulf coast is utter perfection and see how it plays out as it moves ne and into cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:56 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Expect suppression to show up because high is stout and moving in instead of already locked in or moving off. The origin of the low, tx/la gulf coast is utter perfection and see how it plays out as it moves ne and into cold air Expand That can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Look how close the high and low heights are to aligning in textbook fashion on the euro! All we need is a slightly faster ns and slower ss. That's much better than hoping for the ss to speed up in westerly flow! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120312/ecmwf_z500a_eus_7.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:00 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That can still change. Expand I see the thinking is the cold air will be stale. Studying the Synoptics and evolution and analogs it’s my assessment the cold air will be more moving in than moving off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:03 PM, Tenman Johnson said: I see the thinking is the cold air will be stale. Studying the Synoptics and evolution and analogs it’s my assessment the cold air will be more moving in than moving off Expand The current modeling shows that, but it's far from certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 i bring this up every year. You guys ready We are too far east for Clippers too far south for Miller Bs too far North for Southern Sliders too far west for Norlun troughs i am sure i forgot something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:05 PM, Ji said: i bring this up every year. You guys ready We are too far east for Clippers too far south for Miller Bs too far North for Southern Sliders too far west for Norlun troughs i am sure i forgot something else Expand just right for Miller As! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:05 PM, Ji said: i bring this up every year. You guys ready We are too far east for Clippers too far south for Miller Bs too far North for Southern Sliders too far west for Norlun troughs i am sure i forgot something else Expand Too far east for cutters as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:07 PM, tplbge said: Too far east for cutters as well. Expand We get front end thumps on cutters.. but pure snow is a challenge! In general - it is kind of hard to make it snow in DC area! But we can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Look how the higher heights position farther east over the last 3 0Z eps runs. I'm optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:07 PM, tplbge said: Too far east for cutters as well. Expand yep lol....too far west for those eastern coastal storms(Boxing Day 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It’s not easy to snow here. Gotta have the high generally inwestern ny state and the low moving from around Atlanta and northeast. Then we are in the game. Much different and it does not work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Sorry for all the posts at once, but did anyone notice the delay of the storm until Monday now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:13 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Sorry for all the posts at once, but did anyone notice the delay of the storm until Monday now? Expand the models were showing that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:39 PM, Bob Chill said: Meh, really not a good run with the outcome. It looked better leading in but a lot of problems are showing up... Expand Outside the GFS, I like the 500 evolution so far in today's 12z suite. Little improvements in a few different ways. That's probably worth declaring victory at this stage, with thermal problems something to deal with a bit closer to D-day. Although the airmass is pretty stale by Monday, it still should be dry enough that precipitation will evaporationally cool things below freezing. Looking at euro precipitation maps seems to confirm that. We'll see what the EPS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:16 PM, WxUSAF said: Outside the GFS, I like the 500 evolution so far in today's 12z suite. Little improvements in a few different ways. That's probably worth declaring victory at this stage, with thermal problems something to deal with a bit closer to D-day. Although the airmass is pretty stale by Monday, it still should be dry enough that precipitation will evaporationally cool things below freezing. Looking at euro precipitation maps seems to confirm that. We'll see what the EPS does. Expand hearbreaking map but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12Euro keeps precip south, can't overcome dry tongue..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:23 PM, Ji said: hearbreaking map but close enough. Expand Looks like a nina map...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:32 PM, Bob Chill said: yea, better than last nights run and an eternity to go basically. Expand People freaking out over a 100 mile miss at 144 hours have way more faith in NWP than I do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Don't worry. Everybody has said to wait until about Thursday for the confluence to exit a little more. We're right where we want to be five, six, or seven days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:25 PM, Scud said: 12Euro keeps precip south, can't overcome dry tongue..... Expand That would have to be like a 30.50 departing high to be that dry so not concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Eps is a close match to the previous run with the low. Only thing different is that we are seeing a stronger signal. Like the look later on in the run with the trough as the low is off the coast. Probably argues for bringing the low up the coast more so then the previous run. eta: up to hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:38 PM, showmethesnow said: Eps is a close match to the previous run with the low. Only thing different is that we are seeing a stronger signal. Like the look later on in the run with the trough as the low is off the coast. Probably argues for bringing the low up the coast more so then the previous run. Expand I was looking at the 6hr precip mean. Seems more south no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:27 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Looks like a nina map...lol Expand there is an evil face in Ohio...must be the NS throwing some sort of evil hex our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Don’t know why but in all my model watching and with a southern based low, Miller A, the 5 day is what I have found works best. It seems to me that 5 day gives a broad, binocular like assessment and then the 2,3,4 day gets microscopic like and jumps all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Am I the only one who thinks this is a southern MA storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:39 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: I was looking at the 6hr precip mean. Seems more south no? Expand Was just looking at the pressure maps. But yeah, I see what you mean with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 7:40 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Don’t know why but in all my model watching and with a southern based low, Miller A, the 5 day is what I have found works best. It seems to me that 5 day gives a broad, binocular like assessment and then the 2,3,4 day gets microscopic like and jumps all over the place. Expand What do you mean by the 5 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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