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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

168 hour has a 997 parked over Hatteras.  Pretty classic look...  Thermals suck though.

yep, the delay doesn't help up without a fresh cold feed. IF it does snow here with that setup it's going to be marginal and dynamically driven. Not my favorite in early Dec. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

yep, the delay doesn't help up without a fresh cold feed. IF it does snow here with that setup it's going to be marginal and dynamically driven. Not my favorite in early Dec. 

SO we have the GFS with too much of a good thing...and now the Euro with bleh temps.   

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Models having a tough time with all the moving pieces. If you compare each model with how they are handling the N stream each has their own idea. So many details to iron out. The only people who I think should feel comfortable are the mountains and high elevations of NC, S VA etc because they will certainly get overrunning precip...from there their are so many possibilities we probably wont have a better handle until wed 00z runs, then the rest of the runs to iron out the details, even then could be too soon.

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Just now, H2O said:

So the retreating high is the problem after all.

I didn't like that part a few days ago. As the storm starts turning north there isn't a cold feed so it's all antecedent stale air with strong easterly fetch in the mids. CMC still has cold it but well... yea... it's the cmc. 

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