mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, cae said: We do have sccores (purple, below). More here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/. It has been consistently doing better than the GFS, but that's no reason to ignore the GFS; I'd just give it less weight. Thanks for posting those. There are also "PNA" (North America) scores, which might be better for our area than the NHX (Northern hemisphere) scores. Unfortunately the GGEM has been lagging in those scores as well (at least at H5), but not by as much. welcome! 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's an interesting graph. Note that the lowest scores in the past month for all of them came from our last winter storm. Yup -- Euro won that one, with CMC doing the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It does seem logical to ask the question as to whether the Canadian could possibly be correct when you frame it with the "this is a northern stream issue, northern stream vorts originate in the main domain of the canadian model, so shouldn't it be able to resolve those better" thinking. Is there any evidence to suggest that that model handles the northern stream better? And how are 500 verification scores created for global models? Can a model handle certain regions better, some worse and that affect its scores? Or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 CMC snowmap is akin to a pic of your favorite porn star that is signed “all my love”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No need to over analyze the CMC precip and surface. This panel says all you need to know. Stick to hockey and maple syrup, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 If the cmc is all you got then it's bad...but let's wait and see what the Fv3 ukmet and euro has to say. The cmc is fine to mention as being ancillary evidence in a camp but if it's all on its own it's very likely wrong. It's just fun to look at in the dead time after the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 New gfs looks nothing like his granddad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: New gfs looks nothing like his granddad Lol it's going to miss close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: New gfs looks nothing like his granddad Close enough. Now it's easy. Toss the old crusty gfs, hug the CMC, and use the FV3 as support for the eventual CMC solution verifying. Too easy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol it's going to miss close close miss to the south... exactly where I want it at day 6 not kidding either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 30"+ of snow in the Triad of NC. Exactly where we want the snowstorm to be at this stage, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 close miss to the south... exactly where I want it at day 6 not kidding eitherEncouraging run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GEFS ticked north. Honestly, the southern slider solution doesn't bother me as long as it slowly ticks towards a MA jackpot. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Right or wrong, FV3 has probably been the most consistent model for the last 2 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Cancel my last post. Wrong time stamps. GEFS ticked south but since we're tossing it it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Close enough. Now it's easy. Toss the old crusty gfs, hug the CMC, and use the FV3 as support for the eventual CMC solution verifying. Too easy man. Preach it brother... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: close miss to the south... exactly where I want it at day 6 not kidding either Encouraging run How is it encouraging? Last night it was a solid hit, and now it has trended into suppression and better agreement with every other piece of relevant guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: How is it encouraging? Last night it was a solid hit, and now it has trended into suppression and better agreement with every other piece of relevant guidance. It's right where we want it at 6 day leads. Come on man... you know this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's right where we want it at 6 day leads. Come on man... you know this and headed the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: 30"+ of snow in the Triad of NC. Exactly where we want the snowstorm to be at this stage, right? Trust me yes. The northward jog commeth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: and headed the wrong direction. tune up your shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS ticked north. Honestly, the southern slider solution doesn't bother me as long as it slowly ticks towards a MA jackpot. So far so good. This... I don't mind it looking like a southern slider as long as the system looks healthy and its not being squashed into a weak wave off Jacksonville. We have seen that happen in the day 5-7 range the last few years and it doesn't recover. It has recovered from that look to be a tease "close but no cigar" in the end. We just need a little bit of relaxation of the 50/50 and associated vorts diving into new England. That isnt a big ask and its a typical error at this range more often then being too weak with those features. Having the consensus focused just to our south with a healthy storm isn't as problematic as when we were trying to will some squashed 1015 wave off Georgia at day 6 into a storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: 30"+ of snow in the Triad of NC. Exactly where we want the snowstorm to be at this stage, right? LOL in early December as well. I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's right where we want it at 6 day leads. Come on man... you know this The timing is complicated to say the least, GFS shows more than one vortex at 500 mb sliding from Arklatex and off the Carolina coast. It seems that the southern stream is slowing with multiple votices, none of which want to stack and turn left up the coast. Too soon to know if the timing is figured out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's right where we want it at 6 day leads. Come on man... you know this was that page 34 or 35 of the weenie handbook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Any word on the 12z UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: and headed the wrong direction. because its definitely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: tune up your shovel first I have to gas it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: How is it encouraging? Last night it was a solid hit, and now it has trended into suppression and better agreement with every other piece of relevant guidance. If you look at the FV3 over the last 48 hours its pretty much locked in with each run only jumping around a little bit well within a normal error at this range. If you take the average of all those runs its obviously focusing its attention on southern into central VA. A few runs get DC into the mix and a few miss south... but the bottom line is the FV3 is "right there" with a close miss to the south. Its not suppressing the thing to oblivion. The kind of adjustments it would take from day 6 to turn a southern VA hit into a DC hit are a fairly minor synoptically for that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 When do we start extrapolating the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: because its definitely correct. that's irrelevant to its trend. And it's likely to get more accurate every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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