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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I can see how that could evolve, but verbatim, its a southern slider.  To your point, yes a few runs from now this correction could give us what we need for it to gain latitude.

No, your right it isn't there yet. Southern shortwave is outracing it.

 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There have been some good improvements out west but that wasn't the problem to begin with.  That isn't going to matter if what you circled in the northeast is there.  Look at that wall!!!  That has to relax, speed up, lift...anything or we are toast.  

That was my point. As/If we see continued improvements with the NW feature it should have upstream implications in the NE flattening the flow and lifting that wall somewhat..

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I was looking at the shortwave that ends up over NE at just the wrong time and it was definitely weaker earlier in the run and then strengthened just at the wrong time.  Similar issue is that piece of the TPV/50-50 low is closed off and sitting in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  Wasn't that far south before, which increases the confluence/suppression, etc.  Combine that with a weaker southern s/w that doesn't phase at all and = poop.  

Ahh I see that...yea I think I was ahead of you already on the panels... plus I was seeing the lower heights over the northeast and that 50/50 and thinking...even if its weaker all those vorts up in canada are going to continue to dig into new england in that look.  We need that whole situation to relax and back off!  But... that isn't out of the question at this range.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ahh I see that...yea I think I was ahead of you already on the panels... plus I was seeing the lower heights over the northeast and that 50/50 and thinking...even if its weaker all those vorts up in canada are going to continue to dig into new england in that look.  We need that whole situation to relax and back off!  But... that isn't out of the question at this range.  

well at least warmer solutions are less of a worry.  Just trying to stay positive....lol

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

EPS gave us 4 inches.....lol...usually the GFS historically does the worst with east coast storms....Weenie rule 5334`

During a La NIna I give preference to the GFS on the handling of the NS over the Euro. With a El Nino that is reversed as the GFS has quite often over played the strength of the NS. So in other words, I am looking more towards the Euro on this upcoming storm.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

During a La NIna I give preference to the GFS on the handling of the NS over the Euro. With a El Nino that is reversed as the GFS has quite often over played the strength of the NS. So in other words, I am looking more towards the Euro on this upcoming storm.

#keepingfaithalive

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

No, your right it isn't there yet. Southern shortwave is outracing it.

 

That was my point. As/If we see continued improvements with the NW feature it should have upstream implications in the NE flattening the flow and lifting that wall somewhat..

maybe but I think the problem is upstream not down.  Look at the 50/50.  Its way too strong/south and is backing up the flow behind it allowing all the vorts up in canada to pinwheel and dive into new england which suppresses the flow.  I am not so sure how much the ridge in the west can help with that.  Its almost ideal already and its not getting it done.  We probably need that configuration to our northeast to relax some or be north of projections now for it to make a difference.  The ridging out west is almost ideal.  But all its doing is to compress the flow even more.  Maybe that changes and hopefully I am wrong.  I don't care how we get the northern stream out of our way I just want it out of our way!

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GFS and CMC handle the NS SW significantly differently - at 138 the CMC has it much slower compared to the GFS so that it is above the great lakes, at 138 the GFS has it diving into upstate new york. 

The CMC allows the heights to amplify ahead of the SW where the GFS is beating them down to oblivion. NS tends to be poorly modeled at this lead so hard to say which will end up being closer to correct.

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