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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, this is a key feature to hone in on if I'm interpreting things right...even a tiny adjustment would work...

Inkedicon_z500_vort_us_47_LI.jpg

Exactly...that is the only thing wrong with the setup in terms of track.  Get that out of the way a little bit and we would be good.  Temps are always a concern this early, but get a storm first then I will worry about temperatures.  I dont care what the temperature is if I am smoking cirrus.  

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

GFS looks to have slowed down the northern stream energy at 102. 

yea not sure I like that...it would have to slow that down A LOT to get it behind the system... I was thinking speed it up or lift it north would be our better options... dripping in behind is ok, or out of the way ahead is ok...right in on top or just in front is no good...  but as wxusaf points out its weaker too which also factors into the equation...  either way we basically just need it to be wrong in one way or another to a decent margin but that isnt a big ask for a northern stream vort at this range.  Its basically in the worst possible spot right now so any change is good kinda.  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker.  But maybe a phase pulls it north?

Yeah 6z was closed at H5 in southern MZ, 12z is open and further south through 138

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Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE.

12zgfs.gif.63d34607abd7ba6eabff088bb704fc14.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker.  But maybe a phase pulls it north?

I dunno I still see that northern stream system diving in on top at the worst possible time... and the heights are even more suppressive this run over the northeast.  The STJ is also weaker lol and I have no idea which is the "bigger" problem but I still didnt love the northern stream look either.  

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE.

12zgfs.gif.63d34607abd7ba6eabff088bb704fc14.gif

 

I can see how that could evolve, but verbatim, its a southern slider.  To your point, yes a few runs from now this correction could give us what we need for it to gain latitude.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I dunno I still see that northern stream system diving in on top at the worst possible time... and the heights are even more suppressive this run over the northeast.  The STJ is also weaker lol and I have no idea which is the "bigger" problem but I still didnt love the northern stream look either.  

I was looking at the shortwave that ends up over NE at just the wrong time and it was definitely weaker earlier in the run and then strengthened just at the wrong time.  Similar issue is that piece of the TPV/50-50 low is closed off and sitting in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  Wasn't that far south before, which increases the confluence/suppression, etc.  Combine that with a weaker southern s/w that doesn't phase at all and = poop.  

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE.

12zgfs.gif.63d34607abd7ba6eabff088bb704fc14.gif

 

There have been some good improvements out west but that wasn't the problem to begin with.  That isn't going to matter if what you circled in the northeast is there.  Look at that wall!!!  That has to relax, speed up, lift...anything or we are toast.  

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