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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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EPS snowfall mean favors the op. Shows central/northern VA in the jackpot with 3-4" totals. Balt/DC and N/W clock in with 2 1/2". Control run favors 95 and north and west from DC on up with 3" through the cities to 4 1/2-5 inches in northern Carroll and Fred counties. Looking at individual members there is no clear preference as we see a camp south through Va, one centered on the cities (DC/Balt) and one 95 and north. Though there are some nice hits in the mix overall the 00Z run is not as robust as the 12Z run.

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06Z GFS hasn't quite given up on the possible upcoming Tues/Wed period as it does throw a little snow into VA. 500's just don't support anything of consequence at this time though as it is suppressive and progressive. Anything seen would be light in nature (flurries, snow showers) and probably associated with the upper level shortwave passage and not the surface low. At this point we are probably talking DC and south though that may shift a little depending on where that shortwave runs.

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And the GFS pops another coastal a day-day and a half later off of Hatteras with the closed upper low passage. Doesn't impact up here though it does throw snow into eastern VA. Have seen this solution multiple times over the last few days on different ensembles and even the EPS control had a run with this scenario impacting up in the DC/Balt region. Maybe there is some legs to this double low solution?

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This is the point when a system is modeled that I start looking at the southern extent to see how much room we have when it shifts north...cavemanish I know but
I'm more worried about suppression but typically these storms target the mid Atlantic as the primary
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8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

This is the point when a system is modeled that I start looking at the southern extent to see how much room we have when it shifts north...cavemanish I know but

With the suppression running interference in front of the system I am not so sure there is much leeway for it gain much latitude. Think the biggest fear is that the suppression hangs on longer then modeled and suppresses the system farther south.

eta: And it isn't cavemanish, it is just IMBYish and we all play that game. :weenie:

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

With the suppression running interference in front of the system I am not so sure there is much leeway for it gain much latitude. Think the biggest fear is that the suppression hangs on longer then modeled and suppresses the system farther south.

eta: And it isn't cavemanish, it is just IMBYish and we all play that game. :weenie:

lol yep.

Still pretty far out, but I am checking on that 850 mb line to see how close it is to my yard. The big run from the 12z Euro yesterday was too sleety for my liking. I rarely worry about suppression, and in this case the advertised h5 pattern is not your classic southern slider look.

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol yep.

Still pretty far out, but I am checking on that 850 mb line to see how close it is to my yard. The big run from the 12z Euro yesterday was too sleety for my liking. I rarely worry about suppression, and in this case the advertised h5 pattern is not your classic southern slider look.

If there is any game in that second low scenario you may be in a good spot for both storms. And looking at the 500s at this time I don't think that second low possibility is just a fantasy. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

If there is any game in that second low scenario you may be in a good spot for both storms. And looking at the 500s at this time I don't think that second low possibility is just a fantasy. 

Yeah pretty interesting look on the GFS with that NS energy rotating down. Have to watch and see how this evolves on future runs. 

 

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51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And the GFS pops another coastal a day-day and a half later off of Hatteras with the closed upper low passage. Doesn't impact up here though it does throw snow into eastern VA. Have seen this solution multiple times over the last few days on different ensembles and even the EPS control had a run with this scenario impacting up in the DC/Balt region. Maybe there is some legs to this double low solution?

Saw that and was wondering about that one as well.  Will be interesting to see if it continues to pop on future runs.  6z keeping hope alive.

Pretty cool to turn the calendar to day 1 of real tracking season (for me anyway) and to be looking at what now is a legit MA mauler.  

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