NorthArlington101 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Where are you getting your info? Weathermodels?WxBell, alternating between 850/surface/SLP and Ptype. Might’ve spoken a bit soon (and a bit IMBY), seemingly the best stuff gets shoved out at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Psu sure isn't going to like the euro but was very close to another big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell, alternating between 850/surface/SLP and Ptype. Might’ve spoken a bit soon (and a bit IMBY), seemingly the best stuff gets shoved out at 204. Kinda like the 0z FV3? (If so, I can live with that for the time being...a lot of time left!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 yeah, not a “slam-dunk”. overzealous early call. Not gonna scoff at it though, especially when all 0z models show a storm. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Top one is GFS 00 Middle one is CMC 00 Bottom one is EURO 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Psu sure isn't going to like the euro but was very close to another big run. It's close enough for 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 EPS snowfall mean favors the op. Shows central/northern VA in the jackpot with 3-4" totals. Balt/DC and N/W clock in with 2 1/2". Control run favors 95 and north and west from DC on up with 3" through the cities to 4 1/2-5 inches in northern Carroll and Fred counties. Looking at individual members there is no clear preference as we see a camp south through Va, one centered on the cities (DC/Balt) and one 95 and north. Though there are some nice hits in the mix overall the 00Z run is not as robust as the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 06Z GFS hasn't quite given up on the possible upcoming Tues/Wed period as it does throw a little snow into VA. 500's just don't support anything of consequence at this time though as it is suppressive and progressive. Anything seen would be light in nature (flurries, snow showers) and probably associated with the upper level shortwave passage and not the surface low. At this point we are probably talking DC and south though that may shift a little depending on where that shortwave runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gfs looks hecsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 06Z GFS is coming in with another hit for the weekend. A little slower moving into the DC/Balt region by 12Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs looks hecsy Yes it does, at least for the mid-Atlantic (Mason Dixon south). eta: Gets decent snows into central PA but the jackpot looks to be the DC/Balt region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs looks hecsy Yeah I would call 6z a pure crush job for DC. Not even exaggerating on that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2016 hecsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Dead puppies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 And still going waiting on ull to pass thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just to give @mappya hard time, I would take this run and lock it in right now. Talking 1 1/2' to 2 feet region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Dead puppies Just waiting for the Kuchera to come out on weatherbell. That northern edge of the heavy snow should see some good improvement with the cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1041 high with a wet and active Nino jet. It's a classic el nino mid Atlantic type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 And the GFS pops another coastal a day-day and a half later off of Hatteras with the closed upper low passage. Doesn't impact up here though it does throw snow into eastern VA. Have seen this solution multiple times over the last few days on different ensembles and even the EPS control had a run with this scenario impacting up in the DC/Balt region. Maybe there is some legs to this double low solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 1041 high with a wet and active Nino jet. It's a classic el nino mid Atlantic type storm This is the point when a system is modeled that I start looking at the southern extent to see how much room we have when it shifts north...cavemanish I know but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 This is the point when a system is modeled that I start looking at the southern extent to see how much room we have when it shifts north...cavemanish I know butI'm more worried about suppression but typically these storms target the mid Atlantic as the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This is the point when a system is modeled that I start looking at the southern extent to see how much room we have when it shifts north...cavemanish I know but With the suppression running interference in front of the system I am not so sure there is much leeway for it gain much latitude. Think the biggest fear is that the suppression hangs on longer then modeled and suppresses the system farther south. eta: And it isn't cavemanish, it is just IMBYish and we all play that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Kuchera output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Kuchera output. Winchester crew wont like this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: With the suppression running interference in front of the system I am not so sure there is much leeway for it gain much latitude. Think the biggest fear is that the suppression hangs on longer then modeled and suppresses the system farther south. eta: And it isn't cavemanish, it is just IMBYish and we all play that game. lol yep. Still pretty far out, but I am checking on that 850 mb line to see how close it is to my yard. The big run from the 12z Euro yesterday was too sleety for my liking. I rarely worry about suppression, and in this case the advertised h5 pattern is not your classic southern slider look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Fell asleep as the Euro came out. Just woke up now to see the pretty in pink GFS Kuchera. I’ll take that with the first cup of coffee and wish everyone and great Saturday of tracking ahead. Good times around the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol yep. Still pretty far out, but I am checking on that 850 mb line to see how close it is to my yard. The big run from the 12z Euro yesterday was too sleety for my liking. I rarely worry about suppression, and in this case the advertised h5 pattern is not your classic southern slider look. If there is any game in that second low scenario you may be in a good spot for both storms. And looking at the 500s at this time I don't think that second low possibility is just a fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: If there is any game in that second low scenario you may be in a good spot for both storms. And looking at the 500s at this time I don't think that second low possibility is just a fantasy. Yeah pretty interesting look on the GFS with that NS energy rotating down. Have to watch and see how this evolves on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And the GFS pops another coastal a day-day and a half later off of Hatteras with the closed upper low passage. Doesn't impact up here though it does throw snow into eastern VA. Have seen this solution multiple times over the last few days on different ensembles and even the EPS control had a run with this scenario impacting up in the DC/Balt region. Maybe there is some legs to this double low solution? Saw that and was wondering about that one as well. Will be interesting to see if it continues to pop on future runs. 6z keeping hope alive. Pretty cool to turn the calendar to day 1 of real tracking season (for me anyway) and to be looking at what now is a legit MA mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 and looking at Ens guidance at 500 says the warmup is a rather muted/mundane one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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