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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Having everything (except for the gfs op) drastically NW of the Euro 12z run was a bit of a red flag. C NC to C VA the big winners this run.  NC/SC boarder winners at 12z.

Need to forget the GFS Op so far out. Its terrible outside of 84-90 hrs. Move on to the new FV3 my man

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Day 7 UKIE precip and SLP location

ukm2.2018121000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.32adfd0ed76e54da171654a3ed481a93.png

I like the quasi-Bermuda high that is keeping the lp from moving due east. I dont like how there isn't much hp to the N of the storm. Euro and looks like ukie are going to be relying mostly on dynamics to keep it cold enough for frozen outside of the mountains.

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z EPS Snowfall mean MUCH improved... went from 1.5 in DCA at 12z to 4.0 at 00z

00z EPS Control goes from nada at 12z to around 6 inches at 00z at DCA... more to the south and SW... sharp cutoff to north of DC

Overall EPS members look good... few monster hits in the bunch

Just started glancing over it myself. Liked what I saw just with the surface pressure means. Seeing weaker high pressures over top the storm. Slight shifting northwest (inside the 12Z track) of the low pressure with indications that it may be moving back towards a hybrid Miller A/B. Also seeing a stall off the coast of which I assume is the 500s catching up to it. Everything is still too far south for the DC/Balt crew but it is a definite move in the right direction. Will glance over the 500s shortly to see if they agree with my thoughts.

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15 minutes ago, Scud said:

Its all good gentleman. 00z Euro moved north to our doorstep, FV3 8-12,  CMS a general 10-14. Theses Gulf Lows seem to jog north in the end. At this point, it's all good.....

It appears so.  Next thing we will have to worry  about is too far north.  Throw that in the mix.  But a good night and goodnight!

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster.  So that's good I guess

There was nothing good about that run in my opinion. same ol garbage from the GFS, has no clue where to go and what to do.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I like the quasi-Bermuda high that is keeping the lp from moving due east. I dont like how there isn't much hp to the N of the storm. Euro and looks like ukie are going to be relying mostly on dynamics to keep it cold enough for frozen outside of the mountains.

Because the ULL is occluding down south 

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster.  So that's good I guess

6 days still.  Looks solid to me.  You know what’s happens if all guidance shows a hit. I feel pretty good about this and I never feel good..ever.

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Exactly, and honestly I’d personally just look at the FV3, this old GFS will be obsolete soon. 

FV3 much more sure of its self then the old GFS. Dont get me wrong at 84 to 72 hrs before any storm its ok as a model but not this far out.

Ensemble was good at 0z. and H5 did improve a bit. 

will see FV3 next if it holds this run

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