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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet at 144 has the low in Baton Rouge with the high on the Mid Atlantic coast.  The UKMet is opposite of the GFS - it has the sfc high out ahead of our storm (a bit too far out ahead)...but UKMet looks like it's going to go Miller B if I had to guess....looks like it would be a big phasing Miller B

 

That's what griteater said about it in the SE forum... I guess that would mean big rainstorm for most?

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC is slower with the ns shortwave. This panel really shows it. The kicker on the gfs is still up in Canada on the cmc 

gem_z500_vort_us_25.png

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

That timing difference is only like 12 hours and this is 5+ days out in time. We're close to being in the game.

The kicker is slower on the 0z gfs as compared to the 18z so in that regard it improved. If it’s not going to race out of the way, we would want it to hang back more and it trended that way. Am I reading that right?

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9 minutes ago, Negnao said:

The kicker is slower on the 0z gfs as compared to the 18z so in that regard it improved. If it’s not going to race out of the way, we would want it to hang back more and it trended that way. Am I reading that right?

Yep, hanging back helps. With it pressing down out in front of the southern shortwave it compresses and flattens heights which leads to a suppressed solution. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z gefs is pretty bad for our area. Strong support for southern slider. 

It also pops a secondary low after the first is gone in the same spot 18hrs later. How believable  is that in comparison to last nights 0z run on GEFS? 

Seems like we need to hold off for another 36hrs or more

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Why anybody gives much value to the GFS (at least the old version) is beyond me.  It is not very good with east coast winter storms beyond 4 days. Frequently overdoes the northern stream strength/progressiveness which usually screws up the end result.  Of course, the outcome of next weekend is still up in the air, but is not likely to be the GFS depicted result.  

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2 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Why anybody gives much value to the GFS (at least the old version) is beyond me.  It is not very good with east coast winter storms beyond 4 days. Frequently overdoes the northern stream strength/progressiveness which usually screws up the end result.  Of course, the outcome of next weekend is still up in the air, but is not likely to be the GFS depicted result.  

Its only good for phone apps. I think the FV3 looks to be a clear winner and has been steady the last few runs to my untrained eye starting back on 11/30

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1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

That they have especially when they come with the low right off the FL coast straight into the Atlantic with no SER/WAR. Gate is wide open for it to run and become fish storm

Depends on which model u r looking at. Fv3, cmc, and icon all have just enough of a SER reflection at the right window to help nudge the surface low farther N than say the gfs which is flat. Been watching this feature for a couple days now.

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