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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What's even better is the monster west based -nao. Gfs op had a nice east based one. I like seeing ops spit out blocking even though it's fantasyland. Building a -ao/nao during the second half of Dec would be a very good sign.

Bob, some of the things I read about the progression various features from Dec 18 th on would lend support to the improving Atlantic side and as we get closer to the end of December we may also get an improving Pac look as well. 

Also, as per @bluewave  we might towards the end of December get the MJO back to the favorable phases 8 1 and  2.

Meanwhile, per the new update today from @Isotherm , things improve blocking wise as various positive changes happen up North. Ray was still going with his original call of colder after the 18 th to the 19th of the month and my interpretation was later in the month stormy as well.   

@HM had some things up pointing to the precursor pattern for a weakening PV on his feed and overall if these positive strat forecast hold things should be busy here later in the month and into Jan. 

Seeing some long range blocking on the models is indeed a good thing.    

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's also still kinda worth watching Wednesday a little. GFS keeps showing an area of T-1" or so in the Central/Western part of VA. 

gfs-asnow-neus-fh72-trend.gif

One of those things that could get a little more juice over the next few days. I'm sure it'll tease us by looking healthy Tuesday evening.

I'm telling ya...I've been having a feeling that this one sneaks up on us, lol

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support

That they have especially when they come with the low right off the FL coast straight into the Atlantic with no SER/WAR. Gate is wide open for it to run and become fish storm

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