nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Icon takes a great track but it takes so long to get here it rains. The plot thickens. Honestly, I’d rather take my chances with a good track than a suppressed MOFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What's even better is the monster west based -nao. Gfs op had a nice east based one. I like seeing ops spit out blocking even though it's fantasyland. Building a -ao/nao during the second half of Dec would be a very good sign. Bob, some of the things I read about the progression various features from Dec 18 th on would lend support to the improving Atlantic side and as we get closer to the end of December we may also get an improving Pac look as well. Also, as per @bluewave we might towards the end of December get the MJO back to the favorable phases 8 1 and 2. Meanwhile, per the new update today from @Isotherm , things improve blocking wise as various positive changes happen up North. Ray was still going with his original call of colder after the 18 th to the 19th of the month and my interpretation was later in the month stormy as well. @HM had some things up pointing to the precursor pattern for a weakening PV on his feed and overall if these positive strat forecast hold things should be busy here later in the month and into Jan. Seeing some long range blocking on the models is indeed a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It's also still kinda worth watching Wednesday a little. GFS keeps showing an area of T-1" or so in the Central/Western part of VA. One of those things that could get a little more juice over the next few days. I'm sure it'll tease us by looking healthy Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's also still kinda worth watching Wednesday a little. GFS keeps showing an area of T-1" or so in the Central/Western part of VA. One of those things that could get a little more juice over the next few days. I'm sure it'll tease us by looking healthy Tuesday evening. I'm telling ya...I've been having a feeling that this one sneaks up on us, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off Heights are a little higher in front through 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off I’m looking at H5 and heights are heigher on the EC vs 18z so if I was wagering, I’d say the same. Famous last words for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 00z CMC major hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 00z CMC major hit heh, no kidding. this might be the sexiest panel I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off Not so sure now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Heights are a little higher in front through 120. I am not seeing it looking at the H5. To me it looks the NS is hanging back even further in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Cold air never gets set and its a big rainstorm down south... nothing really for us on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Looks flattity flat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z CMC major hit I'm huggin that for now... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Why are we still looking at this crap GFS??? this thing has been bad for ages especially this far out. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GFS. Strike 2! Good grief. Welp. I’ll ride the CMC. Eta: CMC clown map is a sweet beat down. Let’s hope the Euro is on board later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, luckyamaha said: Why are we still looking at this crap GFS??? this thing has been bad for ages especially this far out. Next Euro 12z run was even worse. Of course that was nearly 12 hours ago but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 So... we have the 00z ICON which takes forever and rains for us... 00z GFS which is pretty much same as 18z but faster so cold air doesn't build in and the SE gets a bunch of rain... and the 00z CMC which is a major snowstorm for most... nice runs so far tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Northern stream was worse on the gfs. Stronger kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not so sure now, lol One of the panels were a bit further north. So we were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Euro 12z run was even worse. Of course that was nearly 12 hours ago but still Follow Ensembles not OPs this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: One of the panels were a bit further north. So we were right. Maybe you both were looking in your FV3 crystal ball and didn’t even realize it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Northern stream came in like mike tyson on that gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: Follow Ensembles not OPs this far out Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support That they have especially when they come with the low right off the FL coast straight into the Atlantic with no SER/WAR. Gate is wide open for it to run and become fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Dunno if it was discussed earlier... but while we wait for the next model, the 00z UKMET, the 12z UKIE at 144 had a 1040 HP in Quebec and the SLP was in SE TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support Gfs sucks when it comes to coastal storms. It will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support Nails getting put in the coffin already?....Ya know, if it's gonna miss, I'd rather know now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 CMC is slower with the ns shortwave. This panel really shows it. The kicker on the gfs is still up in Canada on the cmc That timing difference is only like 12 hours and this is 5+ days out in time. We're close to being in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Our main Event is this coming Wed/Thrs thats for sure, Remember the 5thofDecember not November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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